Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
214 FXUS66 KHNX 070505 AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 1005 PM PDT Tue May 6 2025 .UPDATE... Updated aviation section. && && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms developing this afternoon and last into the early evening hours, although mainly over the mountains from Fresno to Kern. 2. Drying and warming return by the middle of next week with well above normal temperatures. Widespread Max temperatures reaching 90 degrees expected by Friday. 3. Another disturbance expected to impact Central California early next week as unsettled weather will exist between Sunday and next Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... While the weekend disturbance continues to track further east, a piece of energy wrapping around the upper low will swing through the Sierra Nevada today for a continuation of showery activity. Therefore, we are not done with mountain precipitation as one more round of unsettled conditions affects the Central California Interior. Afterward, ridge pattern will dominate the region as Lower elevation temperatures soar toward the upper 90s this weekend. The Kern Desert has a chance of reaching the 100 degree mark on Saturday ahead of a yet another disturbance expected toward next Monday. Probability of Measurable Precipitation and Thunder has a positive signal over the Tulare and Kern County Mountains today as a short-wave cuts across that area. Currently, while probability of measurable precipitation sits at 15%-25%, Probability of Thunder for the same time periods is at 5%-10%. With this, while the energy for good convection is becoming more limited, a brief showers still has a chance of developing today. After today, the chances of measurable precipitation drops to near zero. A warming trend this week with lead toward max temperatures reaching the 90s between Thursday and Saturday. With each passing day, PoE of reaching 90 degrees has been going up with a significant just to 50%-80% by Thursday. Confidence is high in having the max temperatures reach into the 90 degrees range by Friday (and into Saturday) as probability of Exceedance (PoE) of 90 degree or above range from 90%-100% for both days (FRI/SAT). With ensemble upper-air analysis showing a signal toward a strong ridge pattern, will have no problem seeing mid to upper 90s by Saturday. The Kern County Desert even has a 30%-40% chance of reaching 100 degrees on Saturday. Furthermore, heat- risk on Saturday will reach moderate levels which will impact heat-sensitive individuals. During the same time, Snow-melt from warm temperatures will allow for cloud development during the ridge pattern as PoE of measurable precipitation remains well below 10% each day. By next Sunday/Monday, with high uncertainty, ensemble hint toward another disturbance entering the region for another round of unsettled conditions. At the present moment, PoE of measurable precipitation sits a 15%-25% across the Sierra Nevada with the higher probabilities closer to Yosemite. In addition, PoE of reaching 90 degrees on Sunday drops to 40%-60% as a cool- down occurs from the next disturbance. Even-more, by Monday, PoE of reaching 90 (or 85) degrees falls below 40% as max temperatures return to near seasonal normal values. && .AVIATION... 06Z Update: VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours in much of the San Joaquin Valley. Localized areas of MVFR/IFR conditions are possible after 20Z Wednesday due to cumulus cloud build ups along the Sierra Nevada mountains. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... ISSUED: 05/06/2025 14:40 EXPIRES: 05/07/2025 23:59 None. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ public...Molina aviation....EW weather.gov/hanford