Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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582 FXHW01 KWNH 090759 PMDHI Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 258 AM EST Sat Nov 09 2024 Valid 00Z Sun Nov 10 2024 - 00Z Sun Nov 17 2024 Latest model guidance seems fairly agreeable that an upper level ridge and mean surface high pressure should prevail for the next week over/north of Hawaii. This will maintain brisk to strong trade winds, focusing showers primarily over windward/mountain locations. Winds should turn more easterly this weekend and onward, with gradually increasing speeds through the week as the high pressure to the north strengthens with time. Models do show sheared shortwave energy/a weak upper low retrograding south of the state during the weekend into next week before it gets absorbed into energy west of Hawaii. Consensus shows precipitable water values rising to around normal levels or so for a time during the weekend/early next week due to this upper low. Moisture may remain close to normal on average through next Thursday with some fluctuations as drier/wetter pockets move along within the trades. Santorelli $$