167
FXHW01 KWNH 120749
PMDHI

Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
248 AM EST Wed Feb 12 2025

Valid 00Z Thu Feb 13 2025 - 00Z Thu Feb 20 2025

Latest guidance shows good overall agreement for a variable
pattern with influence from a couple fronts between now and the
middle of next week.  Wednesday will be the final day of a period
of easterly to southeasterly winds with light showers focused over
windward areas (toward the Big Island) or sea breeze boundaries
(farther west). Winds will turn more southerly on Thursday ahead
of a front that should reach near or into the northwestern islands
by Friday and stall, bringing an increase of rainfall to that part
of the state late in the week.  Expect the front to dissipate/lift
northward by Saturday while trades briefly rebound a bit as weak
high pressure passes by to the north.

Aside from minor position differences that have low predictability
several days out in time, guidance is consistent and agreeable for
the next front forecast to reach the islands early next week and
help to produce some locally heavier rainfall.  Models continue to
make refinements for the specifics of enhanced moisture reaching
the area from the southeast as the approaching front turns winds
southerly again.  This moisture should increase rainfall over the
Big Island on Saturday and then over the rest of the main islands
by Sunday, with the front`s own moisture band likely helping to
enhance rainfall by Monday.  Consensus shows this front
dissipating after Monday while strengthening high pressure to the
northeast should support a return of easterly to southeasterly
trades and a windward shower focus for Tuesday-Wednesday.
Guidance agrees that precipitable water values should remain above
average but with a gradual decreasing trend into midweek.

Rausch

$$