654
FXHW01 KWNH 040859
PMDHI

Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
459 AM EDT Thu Sep 4 2025

Valid 00Z Fri 05 Sep 2025 - 00Z Fri 12 Sep 2025

...Watching current Hurricane Kiko for possible impacts to Hawaii...

Through the end of the week, a relatively dry airmass with
generally stable conditions will be in place under an upper ridge,
for only modest shower coverage over Hawaii. Trades should stay
at light to moderate levels. Then over the weekend to Monday, an
upper low is forecast to drop south toward the state and lead to
somewhat increased moisture and weak surface troughing.

Then forecast interests turn to Kiko and its approach westward
toward the state into next week. Kiko is forecast by the National
Hurricane Center (NHC) to strengthen to a major hurricane over
the next couple of days, then weaken into early next week as it
moves west toward Hawaii. Continue to follow the NHC forecast
track of the system, as the wind directions and speeds across the
islands will of course depend on the exact track. Generally, Kiko
seems likely to at least cause a flash flooding threat for Tuesday
and Wednesday as the tropical moisture could reach over the 99th
percentile for precipitable water values.


Tate

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