117
FXUS64 KHGX 091819
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
119 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 111 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

- Cooler and drier conditions begin today and continue over the
  weekend.

- Small Craft Advisory in effect through Friday afternoon. Caution Flags
  likely in the bays overnight/early Friday.

- Coastal Flood Advisory now in effect through Friday afternoon,
  may continue into the weekend with elevated tides.

- Increased fire weather danger over the next few days, especially
  on Friday due to dry fuels and low RH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 111 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

East/northeast winds have develop across the area today, with a slog
of drier air expected to filter into the area this
afternoon/tonight. Afternoon temperatures won`t feel dramatically
cooler, though highs should be a tad lower on the whole, mainly
in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Morning lows will see a more
significant drop, reaching the 50s/60s inland and lower 70s along
the coast. The addition of drier air with ridging aloft should
suppress rain chances on Friday through early next week.

Onshore winds are forecasted to return Saturday evening, allowing
moisture to rebuild Sunday into next week. High temperatures should
remains around the same (upper 80s/lower 90s), due to the ridge
being flattened by disturbances passing to the north. The mid/upper
level ridge should shift eastward slightly towards the northwestern
Gulf coast next week, briefly strengthening to 593 dam again by
Tuesday. This will bump highs up a tad, though they`ll still be in
the same generally range. Rain chances will still be slim to none
during this period. However, models are suggesting that a tropical
wave/low may move through the southern Gulf during the later half of
the work week. We could start to see rain chances return during this
period, though it`s a bit too early to call.

03

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 646 AM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

VFR at all terminals this morning. Winds increase out of the NE
this morning to around 10-15 kts, with potential for higher gusts
at GLS. Otherwise, few to scattered clouds in the upper levels.
Winds weaken to around 5-10 kts during the overnight hours into
Friday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 111 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

Northeast winds have relaxed this afternoon, especially in the bays.
However, speeds over the Gulf waters remain around 15-20 knots
currently, and are still expected to restrengthen slightly overnight,
reaching up to 25 knots with a few isolated higher gusts. Seas
should still range from around 4-7 feet throughout this time frame.
Caution flags will be possible in the bays during this overnight
period.

Easterly fetch and the current moon phase will also raise water
levels/tides higher than normal. PETSS guidance shows levels peaking
near 3.8ft MLLW around high tide tonight and 3.7-4.1ft MLLW each
evening thereafter through Sunday. A Coastal Flood Advisory is now
in effect through Friday afternoon, and may need to be extended into
the weekend as well. Around this point, winds and seas should be
declining as the gradient weakens, with onshore flow poised to
return by Saturday evening.

03

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 111 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

Active burn bans in SE Texas: Houston, Madison, Trinity,
Walker, Polk, San Jacinto, Colorado, and Wharton counties.

Seeing winds around 10-20 mph this afternoon, though on the whole
these should decrease on Friday into the weekend. Relative humidity
is still anticipated to fall to 30-50% this afternoon for inland
areas as drier air fills into the region. On Friday, relative
humidity is forecasted to fall to 20-30%, improving slightly on
Saturday as onshore flow returns. 10hr Fuels are forecasted to
fall below the 10th percentile across region on Friday, with many
locations anticipated to fall below the 3rd percentile. Texas A&M
Forest Service is forecasting a moderate-high fire danger rating,
with a few isolated spots rated at very high. While wind speeds
are not expected to reach the level necessary for a Red Flag
Warning, conditions will certainly be favorable for increased fire
danger. Caution should be exercised when working with open flames
or operating equipment that can cause sparks, especially in drier
locations.

03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  62  90  58  89 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  66  90  62  88 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  73  85  72  83 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 PM CDT Friday for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT Friday for GMZ350-355-370-
     375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...03
AVIATION...Adams
MARINE...03