Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
110 FXUS64 KHGX 121800 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 100 PM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025 ...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1250 PM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025 - Typical summer-like weather is expected this week with isolated to scattered showers and storms, with the best chances in the afternoon. - High temperatures mainly in the low to mid 90s throughout the week with an increasing temperature trend possible over the weekend into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1250 PM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025 We continued to be situated in a region of weak upper-lvl troughiness, with high pressure systems to our east and west. This weak troughiness, combined with decent moisture (PWs into the 1.9 to 2.1 inch range), daytime heating and some weak surface trough/convergence is leading to the development of scattered storms. The primary forcing for convection is currently located to our east, so expect more scattered activity to develop and move from east to west this afternoon. The Brazos Valley and portions of the Piney Woods area should also be monitored for isolated to scattered storms this afternoon, as they may develop in response to "orphan" outflow boundaries from storms located in north- central TX. A few of these storms will be slow-moving, capable of producing locally heavy rainfall. Strong gusty winds are also possible with the strongest cells. Also, with a weak boundary along the coast, and weak low-lvl vorticity, weak funnel clouds will be possible into the late afternoon. Highest chances east of I-45. Rain and storms should taper off around sunset. A similar weather pattern is expected for Wednesday into early this weekend, with potentially slightly more coverage of storms. This is due to a few shortwaves moving through the pattern aloft. Additionally, a surface trough over the Louisiana coast will increase moisture levels across the region. The peak of these showers and storms will be in early morning across the coastal waters, and in the afternoon further inland. Rain and storm chances gradually decrease towards the end of the weekend as the ridge to our east strengthens and expands westward into our region. While precipitation chances decrease, temperatures will be on the rise. Not only that, but ample moisture will lead to humid conditions, leading to peak afternoon heat indices in the triple digits. Highs in the mid to upper 90s can be anticipated towards the end of the forecast period. JM && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 529 AM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025 Another day of typical summer-time convection is expected today, however coverage should be lower than the past few days. Activity will pop up along the coast through the morning, then spread inland through the afternoon. Generally light winds and VFR conditions are expected to persist through the period, though heavy rainfall and gusty winds will be possible within any storms that develop. Fowler && .MARINE... Issued at 1250 PM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025 Light to occasionally moderate offshore winds early this afternoon, will gradually transition to the south-southeast within the next few hours. Offshore winds early in the mornings, and onshore winds in the afternoon and evenings can be expected in the next several days due to sea and land breezes. Low seas will also prevail through most of the period. With enough moisture and the presence of a weak surface trough along the coast, isolated to scattered showers and storms are expected each day, with the best chances/coverage Thursday and Friday. JM && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 96 77 96 76 / 30 20 40 10 Houston (IAH) 95 79 96 79 / 30 20 50 10 Galveston (GLS) 91 83 91 83 / 50 10 30 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JM AVIATION...Fowler MARINE...JM