277
FXUS64 KHGX 222318
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
618 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025

There`s really no other way to spin it...it`s just hot. High
temperatures this afternoon will top out in the low to mid 90s once
again. Onshore flow at the surface will keep moisture elevated
leading to not only heat indices in the triple digits...but also a
low-end chance for rain. A ridge will build in going into the
weekend, but as of today and Friday we remain in northwesterly flow
aloft. This will give us intermittent bouts of PVA from passing
shortwaves leading to a slim yet non-zero chance to see a few
showers/storms. The first chance is later this afternoon once we
get enough daytime heating interacting with the seabreeze...that`d
mostly be isolated showers if anything develops. The second
chance is overnight with the 12Z CAMs indicating a MCS approaching
Southeast Texas. Now all of them do show that it fizzles out
before it ever makes it here, but as we have seen in a few past
events...there`s a slim chance that it could overperform and push
further south than expected. Our chances of seeing nothing are
waaaay higher than seeing a few drops of rain though. Maybe if we
get enough people to wash their cars we`ll have a better shot at
it!

Expecting a similar day on Friday with high temperatures in the low
to mid 90s. The afternoon will be interesting to see if we can get
anything to develop along the seabreeze. It`ll be a battle
between increasing subsidence and lingering PVA. Who will win?
Find out next time on Dragon Ball...umm I mean we`ll find out
tomorrow. As far as low temperatures go, expect lows mainly in
the low to mid 70s. These will be on an increasing trend going
into the weekend though...more on that in the long term section
below. This is a good time to mention that patchy fog will be
possible during the overnight to early morning hours as well...just
to add to the fun!

Batiste

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025

Main ridge axis slides in over the weekend and squashes rain/storm
chances for most of that period. Rain chances do return on late
Sunday, but we`ll focus on heat for the rest of this paragraph
since there`s a lot of y`all with outdoor plans for the holiday
weekend. High temperatures will be in the low to mid 90s with
isolated instances of upper 90s possible west of the Brazos River.
Onshore flow will be a bit stronger over the weekend, so we`ll
have a decent southerly breeze going. We`ll also have quite bit
more humidity in place too leading to heat indices well into the
100s. We`re not anticipating any Heat Advisories, but it`ll still
be hot enough to at least have heat safety on your minds if
you`ll be outside for extended periods of time. The southerly
breeze and scattered cloud cover will help to make things bit
more tolerable though.

A look ahead at the experimental NWS HeatRisk map shows a
moderate to major risk of heat related impacts (levels 2 & 3 out
of 4) on Saturday and Sunday, so be sure to take the proper
precautions to keep you and your loved ones (including your pets)
safe from the heat. Be sure to stay hydrated, take plenty of
breaks from the heat, LOOK before you LOCK your vehicle, and know
the signs of heat-related illnesses. There won`t be much relief
during the overnight hours over the weekend with low temperatures
mainly in the upper 70s...and maybe even some low 80s. This means
that we`ll be near record for daily high minimum temperatures once
again...

The other main story for the long term period is rain...and
unfortunately it does include Memorial Day. The ridge axis begins to
slide eastward on late Sunday as an upper level trough approaches
from the Four Corners region. This places Southeast Texas in
southwesterly flow aloft, which means we`ll be in a favorable
position for multiple rounds of embedded shortwaves throughout the
week. Combine that with a weak frontal boundary moving in on
Monday/Tuesday, and we have quite the setup for multiple days of
rainfall. The best chances for rain will be early in the week as the
frontal boundary helps surge moisture above the 90th percentile
combined with serving as a source of lift for the moisture in
question. Chances for showers/storms continue through the end of the
work week.

The good news is that temperatures will be manageable due to the
elevated rain chances! High temperatures will mainly be in the 80s
with low temperatures mainly in the upper 60s to mid 70s through
midweek.

Batiste

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 611 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025

VFR conditions and E-SE winds at 06-14 KTS with higher gusts from
time to time are expected through early tonight. Winds will relax
to 5 KTS or less later tonight and increase again to 08-14 KTS on
Fri. MVFR cigs are expected re-develop during the overnight
to early morning hours. Some locations may once again see brief
periods of IFR decks. Patchy fog can also occur during the early
morning hours, but is expected to burn off quickly around 14-15Z.
Shortly after 15Z, cigs are expected to gradually lift, then
scatter out during the afternoon hours.

Cotto - 24

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 255 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025

Light to occasionally moderate onshore flow and 2-4 ft seas will
prevail through the end of the work week. Onshore flow
strengthens late Friday night through the weekend and will likely
require caution flags at times. This increased onshore will lead
to an increased risk in rip currents extending into early next
week along with higher water levels during times of high tide and
4-6 ft seas. Winds and seas gradually subside after Monday, but
expect a brief shift to east-southeasterly winds on Tuesday and
Wednesday as a weak frontal boundary stalls near the coast.
Onshore flow returns after midweek.

Batiste

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  73  94  75  96 /  20   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  76  93  76  94 /   0  10   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  79  87  79  86 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Batiste
LONG TERM....Batiste
AVIATION...Cotto /24/
MARINE...Batiste