Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
213 FXUS64 KHGX 231123 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 623 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1201 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025 - Showers and thunderstorms continue Saturday with locally heavy rainfall possible. Areas of minor flooding is possible, in particular over roadways and areas of poor drainage. - Rain chances lower on Sunday and Monday, but isolated showers and storms will still be possible. - Increase in coverage of the showers and storms should rise again midweek next week as another weak boundary approaches the area. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1201 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025 Warm and humid conditions will prevail overnight into early Saturday morning. The low temperatures will be the lower to mid 70s inland just before sunrise while dewpoints stay a couple degrees lower than the lows. There will be some lingering vort maxes overhead during the early morning hours and could trigger some showers and thunderstorm mainly over the coastal waters and areas south of I-10. We could see activity continuing into the afternoon hours over these areas, especially if storms also start developing along outflow boundaries. Chances for rain over areas north of I-10 are much lower, although isolated showers and storms are not completely out of the question. Moisture levels will remain fairly high over the surface with PWs of 2.0-2.2 inches, which may result in periods of moderate to heavy rainfall. This could lead to ponding of water along roadways and areas of poor drainage. Be sure to check the radar and traffic conditions before you start your commute as heavy rain and frequent lightning could create some driving hazards. That being said, if you plan to visit the beaches or spend time outdoors, remember to head indoors if thunder roars. Keep in mind that lightning can strike several miles away from the core of storm. We could still have another round of showers and storms on Sunday as a mid level high pressure remains anchored over the Four Corner and weaknesses continue to pass through. However, models are indicating much drier air moving over Southeast TX; If storms do develop, it will likely be over areas south of I-10 again, which is where the higher moisture could be. A similar weather scenario can be expected on Monday, as moisture begins to gradually recover. We may see an increase in showers and storms Tuesday into Thursday as moisture increases (PWs rise back to between 1.8-2.2 inches) and a surface boundary moves in from the northeast. The mid level high pressure may move closer towards Southeast TX during that time and could help limit some storm formation, but moisture and instability should be enough to still bring in a few rounds of showers and storms, in particular during the late morning to afternoon hours. One good thing about the rain and cloud coverage this weekend is high temperatures generally in the upper 80s to lower 90s for those who are located along and south of I-10 and the lower to mid 90s for those who are north of I-10. It will get a little hotter on Monday and then cool back down into the lower 90s starting on Tuesday and continuing into the rest of the work week, but will depend how much rain activity we receive during the week. Cotto && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 622 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025 Morning MVFR fog in the vicinity of UTS/CXO/CLL should burn off an hour or two after sunrise. Further south, there is ongoing convection near the beaches and offshore which should generally wane through the mid-late morning hours. GOES Precip Water loop shows lower values than we`ve seen the past couple days...though still sufficient for some sct shra/tstms with some daytime heating. Better chances generally along and south of the I-10 corridor, but can`t completely rule it out further north. Outside of any isolated stronger cells, VFR conditions and light winds will prevail. Precip tapers off this evening followed by some localized late night & early morning fog at non-metro spots. 47 && .MARINE... Issued at 1201 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025 We will continue to see a landbreeze and seabreeze wind pattern for the rest of the weekend. Onshore winds will become more predominant late Monday into the end of the work week. Seas of 1 to 2 feet will continue for much of the forecast period. Chance for showers and thunderstorms will continue each day, slightly lower chances possible near the end of the work week. Strong variable winds/gusts and higher seas are possible in and around strong thunderstorms and outflow boundaries. Cotto && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 94 73 95 73 / 30 10 0 0 Houston (IAH) 92 76 95 75 / 50 10 20 0 Galveston (GLS) 91 81 92 81 / 60 30 40 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Cotto AVIATION...47 MARINE...Cotto