498
FXUS64 KHGX 051919
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
219 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Friday Night)
Issued at 1154 AM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Today has shaped up to be a very typical early summer day with
high temperatures rising into the upper 80s to low 90s,
southeasterly winds, and a splattering of isolated showers across
the area. Not anticipating any of the strong storms that we saw
yesterday afternoon, but could squeak out a rumble of thunder and
a brief downpour out of one or two isolated storms this afternoon.
Activity will wane after sunset with mild and muggy conditions
expected tonight with low temperatures in the mid to upper 70s
inland, and low 80s along the coast.

Upper-level ridging begins to strengthen on Friday leading to
drier and warmer conditions. High temperatures rising into the
mid-90s for most areas along and north of I-10 up through the
Piney Woods - and wouldn`t be shocked to see isolated areas within
the Houston Metro rising into the upper 90s. Heat indices will
rise into the 100-105 degree range during the afternoon hours. The
hot weather only gets hotter for the weekend, but read more about
that below.

The arrival of some hazy conditions is expected Friday
afternoon/evening as a layer of Saharan dust moves in from the
Gulf.

Fowler

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1154 AM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

A very strong ridge of high pressure aloft and moist southerly
flow at the surface will lead to hot and humid conditions over the
weekend. High temperatures on Saturday will rise into the mid to
upper 90s inland and then upper 80s to low 90s along the coast.
Temperatures are expected to rise an additional degree or two on
Sunday, and some isolated spots of high temperatures in the
triple digits possible. Heat indices both afternoons will rise to
around 102-107 degree range. The fact that is an early season and
prolonged period of heat has led to widespread High impacts using
HeatRisk, and Heat Advisories are possible over the weekend. A
slight cool down is possible on Monday as the upper level ridge
begins to break down, but temperatures will still be in the low to
mid 90s for much of the area.

There is one caveat to the heat this weekend: dust. If the Saharan
dust layer is thick enough, it could bounce enough solar radiation
away from the surface thus leading to slightly lower temperatures.
The model trends in the amount of Saharan Dust is lowering, which
means the hot temperatures are becoming more likely. But, this is
something that we`ll monitor as the dust gets closer.

Rain chances return Tuesday and Wednesday as upper-level
shortwaves pass through the region. With multiple days of moist
southerly flow preceding these disturbances, there will be plenty
of lingering moisture around to help bring about scattered
showers and thunderstorms both days. The increased rain chances
and cloud cover will bring a return of high temperatures back into
the 80s.

Fowler

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1154 AM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Expect isolated, slow moving showers to pop-up across the area
through sunset. Not expecting any strong winds and heavy rainfall
from these showers, but they are fairly stationary and could pop-
up anywhere. So, have VCSH in the TAFs across the area through
00z. An isolated, brief thunderstorm is also possible. Otherwise,
expect VFR conditions will prevail through this evening with SCT
to BKN clouds around 4000ft. Periods of MVFR conditions are
possible overnight tonight for the northern terminals with CIGs
around 2000ft, but these will scatter out through Friday morning.
SE winds around 6-9kt will persist through this evening, then
light/variable winds overnight with southerly winds on Friday.

Fowler

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1154 AM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Light to occasionally moderate onshore winds will prevail through
at least early next week with seas between 2-4ft. The persistent
onshore flow will lead to a high risk of strong rip currents
beginning as early as Saturday and continuing through early next
week.

Hot and humid weather is expected through the weekend with rain
chances returning Tuesday into Wednesday next week.

Fowler

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  75  93  76  96 /  10   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  76  94  78  96 /   0  10   0  10
Galveston (GLS)  81  88  82  89 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Fowler
LONG TERM....Fowler
AVIATION...Fowler
MARINE...Fowler