710
FXUS64 KHGX 041111
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
611 AM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 335 AM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025

Today`s weather will be influenced by an approaching cold front -
no, no, not like that - but its proximity may help boost the
potential for a strong to severe storm this afternoon amongst
today`s scattered storm activity. Heat becomes the story into the
weekend, and then we shift back to a more unsettled pattern next
week. Here are some key thoughts on the next seven days of
weather:
- There is a marginal risk of severe weather and excessive rain
  (threat level 1 of 5 and 4, respectively), mainly north of
  I-10. For most of us, we`ll see the usual smattering of
  afternoon showers and storms but the strongest storm or two
  today could be capable of producing some damaging wind gusts.
- This weekend will focus on heat, with high temperatures
  drifting up to near record values paired with above average
  overnight low temperatures that may also occasionally get stuck
  near record highs. Look for the heat index to rise around/above
  105 each afternoon.
- Both the experimental HeatRisk and Wet Bulb Globe Temperature
  reach a level 4 of 5 in their threat scales, indicating both
  persistent unusually high temperatures (HeatRisk) and conditions
  from a combination of heat, humidity, solar intensity, and wind
  to be dangerous to those doing high exertion activities
  outdoors (WBGT).


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 335 AM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025

Arguably the most impactful feature for the weather today isn`t
even quite here yet, and may not really even directly impact our
area. A line of showers and thunderstorms is making its way
towards us ahead of a cold front. These storms are weakening as
they travel, with the most strength poised to miss us to the west
as they sag through Central Texas. The weakening storms lined up
to make their way into Southeast Texas may not even quite make it,
and if they do, shouldn`t be much more than some assorted showers
and a couple embedded thunderstorms.

"That doesn`t sound like that big a deal", I hear you say...even
though you`re asleep right now. And all on its own, no probably
not. I don`t know how much folks up around the Brazos Valley or
Crockett and around there will love waking up to showers or a
lightning strike here or there, but I`m not anticipating severe
weather out of this for the morning. However, it`s the remnants of
this mesoscale convective system that may end up being important
for today`s weather.

As this line gives out, we`ll surely see weak outflow boundaries
settle across southeast Texas, particularly in the northern half
of the area. This, along with the seabreeze, will provide plenty
of focal points for convective initiation this afternoon. And with
these subtle surface boundaries aplenty, we can get particularly
good sparks where we get collisions, either from these initial
boundaries, or from subsequent cold pools from new initiation
later today. When all is said and done, we should have a good
solid scattering of showers and storms this afternoon.

Now, with initiation looking like a near sure bet, what else do
we have to work with? Well, HREF mean CAPE manages to reach 2000
J/kg for much of the area this afternoon, so we should have
unstable air to work with. Deep layer shear doesn`t look terribly
impressive, but still coming in at 15-25 knots in the HREF mean,
which should be enough to support some isolated updraft
organization and a stronger storm here or there. Ultimately, SPC
has a marginal risk area in a narrow corridor ahead of the
approaching front and where the remnant boundarypalooza should
occur, mainly north of I-10. Something in this threat level 1 of 5
looks a pretty good description of the threat here. With poor
lapse rates and middling shear, straight-line wind gusts would be
the primary hazard as potential for large hail or tornadoes will
be slim to none. Outside of a potentially damaging wind gust in
the strongest storm or two, those cells could perhaps produce some
small hail.

Activity will fade off tonight as the sun goes down, and from here
on out, we begin the on-ramp to the hot conditions discussed in
the long term section below. Where highs today are in the upper
80s to around 90, tomorrow should see wider swaths of the area
push above 90, with the hot spots reaching up towards the middle
90s. Overnight doesn`t want to be left behind either, with low
temps not falling out of the 70s area-wide, and locations right on
the Gulf may not manage to get much below 80, if at all.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 1233 AM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025

Ridging builds late this week and into the weekend, setting the
stage for very hot and sunny conditions. Dew points are expected
to be relatively high, though I do suspect some afternoon mixing,
dropping afternoon humidity a tad. But don`t get too excited about
the prospect of dew points mixing down somewhat in the afternoon,
because actual temperatures are going to be quite hot. Many inland
areas this weekend could approach 100 degrees (near record warmth
for early June). And although heat index values are expected to
average around 105 (below typical heat advisory criteria), the
bright sunshine and low winds will increase the Wet Bulb Globe
Temperature into the upper 80s to near 90 during peak sunlight
hours in the early afternoon. These values are quite dangerous,
especially for those partaking in active or strenuous physical
activity outdoors during those hours. So if enjoying some time
outdoors this weekend, be advised that heat safety precautions
(staying hydrated, wearing light colored clothing, taking breaks
if working outside, etc....) will be a must!

However, this heat wave is not expected to last. Global
deterministic and ensemble data strongly suggest a breakdown of
the ridge and a return to an unsettled pattern featuring mid/upper
shortwaves embedded in NW flow aloft. This is a classic pattern
for thunderstorms this time of year. So we expect those
temperatures to become less hot as rain chances rise during the
early to middle part of next week.

Self

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 611 AM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025

Line of storms incoming from north has largely fallen apart, with
established showers well NE of UTS, and light, spotty showers
between CLL, UTS, and CXO - so those will open with a VCSH in
their topline. Beyond that, mix of MVFR and VFR will improve to
VFR area-wide through the morning, with scattered showers and
storms developing in the afternoon. PROB30s for all but the
coastal LBX and GLS terminals for -TSRA. Storm activity wanes with
the sun going down.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1233 AM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025

Onshore flow continues through the forecast period. Winds may be
occasionally gusty, especially during the late afternoon and early
evening near the coast, and overnight for areas farther
offshore. Persistent onshore flow will likely enhance the rip
current risk somewhat. By early next week, the risk of showers and
thunderstorms begins to increase. Generally speaking, next week is
looking unsettled.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  89  74  92  74 /  50  20  10   0
Houston (IAH)  90  77  93  76 /  60  10  10   0
Galveston (GLS)  87  80  87  81 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 7 AM CDT this morning
     for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Luchs
LONG TERM....Self
AVIATION...Self
MARINE...Luchs