798
FXUS64 KHGX 200314
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1014 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 219 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

A broken band of light precip along the I35 corridor will mostly
weaken and track to our NNE, but do anticipate the tail end of some
isolated drizzle/-ra to pass across some of our northern zones in
the 3-8pm timeframe. Otherwise, a mainly quiet wx night is
anticipated with continued warm, humid and occasional breezy
conditions prevailing.

Convection should fire across West Texas tonight as the upper trof
currently near the AZ/NM border moves eastward and surface low
pressure develops near the southern Panhandle region. Tonight`s
convection is expected to weaken and should be breaking up as it
passes I35 late tonight, but would still anticipate some iso/sct
remnant pockets of -ra early Sunday morning across northern parts of
the CWA.

The weak frontal boundary associated with this system will track
into SE TX during the day and pull up quasi-stationary across the
region (maybe somewhere near a Columbus-Livingston line). Although
shear weakens and best dynamics lift well to our northeast, daytime
heating should provide sufficient instability for some shra-tstm
redevelopment along and ahead of the boundary in the late afternoon.
Can`t totally rule out a few embedded strong cells with wind
gusts/hail being the primary concerns into the late afternoon and
evening hours. Hires guidance suggests the weak boundary/cool pool
moves a bit further south Sunday night and remains a focusing
mechanism for some sct shra/tstm activity south of US59/I69
overnight. 47

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 219 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

A stationary frontal boundary will be sitting overhead on Monday
leading to the continuation of shower/storm chances, especially
along the boundary itself...which looks to be somewhere around or
south of the I-10 corridor on Monday. There is the caveat though
that if we receive a lot of activity on Sunday, then the environment
may be too worked over on Monday to get much of anything other than
showers. We`re not going to completely rule out some rumbles of
thunder though as there will still be instability, moisture, and
lift in place. The front washes out and pushes back to the north as
a warm front by Tuesday leading to persistent onshore flow. PW
values will be near or around the 90th percentile (~1.59")
throughout the week, so there will definitely not be a shortage of
moisture. The synoptic flow aloft will remain westerly to
southwesterly throughout the week, which leaves us in line to
receive multiple shortwave impulses leading to essentially daily
chances for shower/storms. The most notable timeframes are late
Tuesday into Wednesday and Thursday into Friday as embedded
shortwave troughs pass through the area.

Temperatures throughout the week will be mainly in the low to mid
80s for highs (can`t rule out some instances of reaching the upper
80s occasionally) and the upper 60s to low 70s for lows. I included
this climatology nugget in yesterday`s AFD, but it still applies so
I`m gonna do some self copy-pasta and include it again: did you know
that the City of Houston hasn`t seen measurable rainfall since April
5th? Around two weeks straight of no rainfall! On average, we should
be around 14" of rain by the end of April and we`re currently at
10.37", so this active pattern should help us catch back up near to
where we should be. In that same token, the latest QPF numbers
reflect widespread 1-2" totals between Monday and Friday...some
areas (most likely in the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods) could see
upwards of 2-3" of rain. With PW values hovering around the 90th
percentile, some of the rain we see could be heavy at times and
there are some marginal risks for excessive rainfall (level 1 out of
4) throughout the week. Areas west of the Brazos River are in a
moderate to severe drought though, so this will be beneficial
rainfall.

Batiste

&&

.AVIATION...
(03Z TAF Amendment)
Issued at 1014 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

A full set of amendments this evening as CIGs have been coming
down slightly more rapidly than anticipated in the 00Z TAFs. Will
need to evaluate for the 06Z TAFs whether this results in a lower
bottom overnight, or if we just will be getting to the expected
015-020 CIGs a little earlier in the night.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 219 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

An extended fetch of southerly to southeasterly winds will continue
throughout the weekend leading periods of elevated winds and seas.
Wave heights in the farshore waters have fluctuated between 7-9 feet
throughout the day and will likely persist into late Sunday night. A
Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through Sunday morning for
the bays and coastal Gulf waters, but extends into late Sunday night
for the farshore Gulf waters. Wave heights are expected to gradually
decrease on Sunday before increasing once again after midweek. This
prolonged period of elevated onshore flow has also increased the rip
current risk and elevated water levels in and around the bays during
high tide as they top out around 3.0 ft above MLLW. We`ll have to
monitor the Sunday afternoon high tide for minor coastal flooding
potential. Shower/storm chances start up on Sunday as a frontal
boundary approaches and stalls out over land. These chances persist
throughout most of next week as a multiple disturbances pass through
the area and interact with lingering Gulf moisture.

Batiste

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  70  81  61  84 /  20  60  40  20
Houston (IAH)  72  85  68  82 /  10  50  70  50
Galveston (GLS)  74  80  72  79 /   0  30  40  60

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ330-335-350-
     355.

     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Monday for GMZ370-375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...47
LONG TERM....Batiste
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...Batiste