695
FXUS64 KHGX 011733
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1233 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025

- Daily risk of showers/thunderstorms through early next week.

- Strongest storms will be capable of producing locally heavy
  rainfall. Marginal risk (level 1 of 4) of excessive rainfall on
  Friday and Saturday across Southeast Texas.

- Seasonably hot/humid conditions and daily risk of isolated to
  scattered showers/thunderstorms next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025

Ridging aloft remains situated over the Southwest CONUS/Northern
Mexico this afternoon, with SE Texas on the eastern peripheral. A
weak trough/disturbance is in place just overhead while weak surface
boundary approaches from the north. The broader environment favors
high precipitation efficiency with abundant PWs of 1.6-2.2 inches,
near or over the 90th climatological percentile. Low Corfidi vectors
and weak 0-6km mean winds further indicate slower-morning storms as
well. Periods of isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms will be
possible over the weekend, some of which could produce strong
downpours and locally heavy rainfall. WPC still has SE Texas
outlooked for a Marginal Risk (level 1/4) of Excessive Rainfall
tonight through Saturday. Most areas will generally see under 1
inch of rainfall during this period, though isolated spots could
see locally higher amounts, upwards of 2-3 inches with any heavier
downpours. Ponding on roadways and minor street flooding in
urban/low lying areas are common to see in setups such as this.

Sunday begins to see a shift in this broader synoptic pattern.
Riding remains centered over the SW CONUS, though will gradually
weaken, evident from falling midlevel heights, as a series of
disturbances pass through the W/NW CONUS/Plains. One of these
disturbances comes in the form of a mid/upper level trough, which
will dig across the Plains/Mississippi River Valley through early
next week. As this trough pushes eastward into the TN Valley/Ohio
Valley, the aforementioned ridge shifts eastward slightly and
strengthens through the end of the work week. Still, SE Texas
remains on the southeastern edge of this ridge throughout the
remainder of the forecast period, allowing a number of weaker
shortwave impulses to pass over this still moisture-rich area.
Periods of showers and thunderstorms remain a daily possibility,
with only a minor reduction of PoPs through Thursday. Temperatures
will still be hot throughout next week with highs in he 90s and
lows in the 70s/lower 80s. Triple digit heat indices expected
almost daily, mainly areas that receive no rainfall.

03

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025

Coastal and offshore thunderstorms along with some cloud cover
have helped keep the atmosphere a little more stable so far
today. The best chance of shra/tsra will be near the coast.
However, some shra/tsra activity is possible inland with enough
day time heating. Some guidance is suggesting a few t-storms in
the Brazos Valley (CLL) late today. A weak frontal boundary is
expected to bring a better chance of tsra tomorrow. Mostly VFR
conditions expected. Sub-VFR likely in locations that receive
shra/tsra.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025

Mariners should be cautious around any storms this afternoon as
waterspouts have been sighted earlier today within some coastal
storms. Scattered showers and storms will be possible daily with
higher winds and seas in the vicinity of thunderstorms. Otherwise
conditions will be fairly calm with 1-3 ft seas and seabreeze-
landbreeze driven winds around 5-10 knots.

03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  76  95  75  96 /  30  60  30  20
Houston (IAH)  78  95  78  94 /  20  70  50  50
Galveston (GLS)  82  92  81  91 /  30  60  70  60

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...03
AVIATION...Self
MARINE...03