325
FXUS64 KHGX 170804
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
304 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, CLIMATE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday Night)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025

Well we may not have broken any record high maximum temperatures
yesterday (a few sites fell one degree short of tying their
records), but we didn`t leave empty handed. ALL FIVE climate
sites (College Station, Houston/Bush Airport, Houston/Hobby
Airport, Palacios, and Galveston) broke their records for daily
high minimum temperatures. Would you believe that the LOW
temperature at Houston/Bush Airport yesterday was 81F?! The
normal HIGH temperature is 87F! The hot and humid conditions will
continue throughout the weekend with a mid level high remaining
centered over the Gulf. A frontal boundary remains to our
northwest and we did see some convection develop off of this line,
but by the time it made it into Houston County it was just a
couple of isolated showers...but there technically was rain in
Southeast Texas! Expecting another similar scenario later this
afternoon/evening as the dry line becomes better defined out west.
We`ll see another round of convection develop and drift towards
the Brazos Valley/the Piney Woods as an embedded shortwave
provides some additional lift along the boundary. Again...this`ll
just be a matter of will anything survive long enough to make it
here, and the 00Z CAM guidance is a bit more enthusiastic about
more than one city up north getting some measurable rainfall. The
unfortunate part is that the rain won`t occur during the heat of
the day when we need it the most for some relief.

Speaking of heat, 850mb temperatures will remain firmly in the 90th
percentile through the weekend as southwesterly flow aloft prevails.
Onshore flow will keep dew points elevated in the mid 70s (we`ve
been mixing out into the upper 60s/low 70s in the afternoon though)
and PW values peaking in the 1.5-1.8" range (right around the 75th
to 90th percentile). The dew points mixing out along with a decent
southerly breeze will help us out a bit in terms of keeping us out
of a Heat Advisory, but still expect high temperatures in the low to
mid 90s with heat indices reaching into the triple digits both today
and Sunday. These won`t be a slam dunk for breaking records, but
we`ll at least be near `em.

The HeatRisk map through Sunday outlines most of Southeast Texas in
a moderate to major risk for heat-related impacts (levels 2&3 out of
4), so be sure to take the proper precautions to keep you and your
loved ones (including your pets) safe from the heat. I`m sure
there`s a lot of you with outdoor plans this weekend, so be sure to
stay hydrated, take plenty of breaks from the heat, LOOK before you
LOCK your vehicle, and to know the signs of heat-related illnesses.
Temperatures during the overnight hours won`t offer much relief as
we remain at least near record territory on that end as well with
lows mainly in the upper 70s...and based on last night low 80s
aren`t out of the question. No rain in the forecast for Sunday, so
after tonight our rain chances are back to essentially zero. They`ll
be back soon though...see the long term section below for more.

Batiste

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025

Mid/Upper level ridging will remain parked over the Gulf through the
early part of next week. This will continue the streak of hotter
than normal daytime temperatures through Tuesday. Increasing
humidity combined with hot temperatures will result in heat indices
in the 100-107F range.

Tuesday will feature a transition in the pattern as a mid/upper
trough over the western CONUS tracks eastward. Low pressure at the
surface will move across the Great Plains and across the Ohio River
Valley, ejecting a cold front in the process. This front is
projected to move southward towards the Gulf. This may trigger
convection; however, there remains uncertainty on how capping will
impact convective initiation and whether or not there is enough lift
to initiate upward movement of air.

In any case, the hot and humid conditions look to continue through
at least Tuesday with the potential for conditions to be drier
behind the FROPA (how much less humid we will experience varies
between guidance).

Adams

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025

Widespread MVFR CIGs ongoing, VFR at IAH/UTS/CLL expected to
become MVFR within the next hour or two. MVFR/IFR CIGs will
prevail through the morning, becoming VFR by afternoon. MVFR CIGs
may remain possible at southern terminals (SGR/LBX) through the
afternoon. MVFR CIGs return again Saturday evening. Winds will be
light out of the S/SE overnight through the morning. Gusts of
20-25 knots are expected during the afternoon before winds relax
again during the evening hours.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 304 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025

Generally light to moderate onshore flow is expected over the next
several days. A steepening pressure gradient is expected to result
in somewhat higher winds on Monday into Tuesday, especially at night
and during the morning hours. Caution flags may be warranted.
Considering the long fetch, we cannot rule out seas reaching Small
Craft criteria over Gulf on Monday and Tuesday. Winds may shift more
north to northeast by Wednesday and Thursday thanks to a passing
frontal boundary.

Self

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 304 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025

With multiple days of near-record to record-breaking heat possible
going into early next week, here`s a look at the daily high
temperature records through Tuesday (May 20th).

May 17th High Temperature Records
---------------------------------
- College Station: 96F (1925)
- Houston/IAH: 96F (2018)
- Houston/Hobby: 94F (2018)
- Palacios: 93F (2003)
- Galveston: 90F (2020)

May 18th High Temperature Records
---------------------------------
- College Station: 98F (2022)
- Houston/IAH: 95F (2022)
- Houston/Hobby: 94F (2022)
- Palacios: 89F (2022)
- Galveston: 90F (2022)

May 19th High Temperature Records
---------------------------------
- College Station: 94F (2022)
- Houston/IAH: 95F (2003)
- Houston/Hobby: 94F (2008)
- Palacios: 89F (2024)
- Galveston: 90F (2022)

May 20th High Temperature Records
---------------------------------
- College Station: 96F (2022)
- Houston/IAH: 95F (2020)
- Houston/Hobby: 95F (2008)
- Palacios: 95F (1943)
- Galveston: 91F (2022)

Batiste

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  95  76  96  77 /  20  20   0   0
Houston (IAH)  95  78  93  78 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  86  79  84  79 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for TXZ436>439.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Batiste
LONG TERM....Adams
AVIATION...Adams
MARINE...Self