Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
508 FXUS64 KHGX 222331 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 631 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 628 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025 - Seasonable temperatures are expected through the week. Modestly cooler than average days may occur where it rains/storms in the afternoon, while overnight lows do look to be a little above average area-wide. - There will be daily chances for showers and thunderstorms following the typical summertime daily pattern. However, the coverage does look to vary somewhat day to day. Tuesday and Wednesday look to be the days with the best potential for more widespread storm coverage. - Persistent onshore winds will keep conditions rougher than usual at area-beaches. Water levels will be elevated above already high astronomical tide levels the first half of this week, and swimmers at Gulf-facing beaches will want to be alert to the potential for rip currents. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1214 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025 The mid-level high pressure will continue to expand east northeast into eastern and northeastern CONUS this afternoon, and although we are still under the southwestern periphery of it, we are seeing it having a little less influence on our rain activity today. Expect to continue to see the quick passing showers and thunderstorms for the rest of the afternoon to early evening hours, in particular over portions near and north of I-10. Our high temperatures this afternoon will reach the lower 90s for most of Southeast TX. Tranquil conditions expected tonight, although areas along the coasts may see a passing shower from time to time during the overnight and early morning hours. The low temperatures are expected to be mainly in the mid to upper 70s inland and the lower 80s along the immediate coast. Slightly more activity is possible on Monday as the mid-level high continues to establish itself across northeastern CONUS. One interesting thing models are pointing out to is the expansion of the mid-level high. Thus, even with it situated over northeastern CONUS, our heights stay similar to today`s (roughly around 592 dam). This could potentially limit some of our rain chances, although moisture and instability would still support isolated to possibly scattered showers and thunderstorms over portions of Southeast TX. For now, kept PoPs below 45%. Rain chances will decrease Monday night as heating and instability decreases, however, there may still be isolated showers over the Gulf that may pass through the coastal areas at times. As we move into Tuesday and Wednesday, we may see an uptick in shower and thunderstorm activity as some pulses of higher moisture move into the region. Models now show a little less instability for the rest of the week along with slightly drier air. Thus, I have somewhat lowered PoPs for Thursday into Saturday (below 50%) for this forecast package for those days. We will likely see a "rinse and repeat" format regarding the when and where for shower and storm activity with showers developing over the Gulf waters and areas south of I-10 in the morning, followed by showers and thunderstorms expanding further inland during the afternoon to early evening hours, and dissipating during the late evening to night hours. Some storms may be capable of producing gusty winds and brief periods of heavy rainfall. Regarding our temperatures for the week, our highs will remain at or slightly below normal...generally in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Our lows, however, will remain mainly between the mid to upper 70s, which is at or slightly above normal. Cotto && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 628 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025 Scattered shra/tsra is diminishing. However, lingering activity warrants VCSH/VCTS mention in some of the TAFs through the next hour or two. Could not rule out MVFR conditions in our northern terminals. Tomorrow features another chance of isolated to scattered shra/tsra. Today`s activity overperformed expectations. There are some similarities between tomorrow and today. But the atmosphere appears a little less favorable for shra/tsra than today. That being said, uncertainty is high enough to warrant PROB -SHRA mention in most TAFs tomorrow. && .MARINE... Issued at 1214 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025 Light to occasionally moderate onshore winds and seas between 3 and 5 feet are expected for the next several days. Chance for isolated showers and storms will continue today, followed by increasing chances Tuesday into Wednesday. Thereafter, isolated to potentially scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to persist through the upcoming weekend. Higher winds and seas may occur in and around storms. Persistent onshore winds will lead to higher water levels, in particular during high tide, as well as a moderate to high risk for rip currents along the Gulf facing coasts. Cotto && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 75 92 74 92 / 10 10 0 20 Houston (IAH) 77 92 76 91 / 20 40 10 70 Galveston (GLS) 82 89 80 89 / 30 30 20 60 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Cotto AVIATION...Self MARINE...Cotto