954
FXUS64 KHGX 181906
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
206 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 206 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

Warm, breezy and humid conditions will prevail thru Saturday night.
With prevalent southerly winds and elevated dewpoints, overnight
lows will struggle to get below 70F. Increased cloud cover on
Saturday should keep daytime readings a touch lower than today`s,
but still well into the mid-upper 80s. In regards to rain potential:
there will be better chances off to our west and northwest in
association with large scale lift beginning to move into Tx with
the next western mid-upper trof, but locally chances should remain
on the very low side. Threw in some low end POPs for extreme
western portions Sat afternoon (Brazos Valley area), but doesn`t
look like anything that should ruin outdoor plans. Shra/tstm
chances increase increase in the extended portion of the fcst...
47

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 206 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

We`ll start off the morning of Easter Sunday with an upper level
trough axis right over the Texas Panhandle. As it continues to track
northeastward, it will push a frontal boundary towards Southeast
Texas...but the northward part of that trajectory will keep the
front from pushing all the way through. This is because the surface
low associated with this will move northeastward as well from the
Red River up towards the Great Lakes. Chances for showers and storms
still increase as the front moves into the area, but we lose out on
most of our shear (40-45 kt LLJ goes bye-bye) due to the pressure
gradient relaxing as the surface low drifts further away. This is
important to note because we`ll have the other three ingredients
(moisture, lift, and instability) in play. That`s not to say that
our chances of strong to severe storms are completely gone, but the
chances of that are on the low side. As a result, SPC only has a
marginal risk of severe weather (level 1 of 5) for areas generally
east of a College Station to Katy line. Either way, if you`re
planning on being out and about on Easter Sunday, be sure to keep an
eye on the sky...and plan your footwear accordingly for any egg
hunts on wet grass.

In spite of the rain chances on Easter Sunday, expect high
temperatures mainly in the mid 80s plus or minus a couple of
degrees. Temperatures on Sunday night will be dependent on where the
front stalls...north of the front expect lows in the low 60s (maybe
some upper 50s) and south of the front expect lows in the upper 60s
to low 70s. The front is still anticipated to stall out and become
diffuse somewhere over Southeast Texas, but model guidance is still
unsure on exactly where the front will stall. It could stall over
the Brazos Valley or right along the coast or anywhere in-between.
Wherever it stalls, it`ll remain there through Monday before
completely washing out by Tuesday as persistent onshore flow
returns. The synoptic flow for most of the week is westerly to
southwesterly, which leaves us in line to receive multiple shortwave
impulses leading to essentially daily chances for rainfall. The most
notable timeframes are late Tuesday into Wednesday and towards the
end of the work week as another frontal boundary looks to approach
the area.

Temperatures will generally be in the upper 60s to low 70s overnight
outside of Sunday night. Daytime temperatures have a little bit more
of variance by a few degrees. Essentially, the days with higher rain
chances we`ll have high temperatures in the low to mid 80s. On days
with lower rain chances, we`ll have high temperatures in the mid to
upper 80s. This will definitely be beneficial rainfall though...did
you know that the City of Houston hasn`t had measurable rainfall
since April 5th? Around two weeks straight of no rainfall?! Yep...we
need it! On average, we should be around 14" of rainfall by the end
of April and we`re currently at 10.37", so this active pattern
should help us catch back up near to where we should be.

Batiste

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1159 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

With the exception of some sites closest to the coast, MVFR
ceilings continue to scatter out. With mixing, gusty south winds
15-25kt will be the primary aviation issue for the remainder of
the day. This evening and overnight, expect 1000-2500ft ceilings
to fill back in from south to north. Surface winds speeds, though
a bit lower than the day, will remain up overnight. Think speeds
will remain up enough to preclude the mention of llvl wind shear,
but it should be noted there could be some bumpy conditions with
some prevailing southerly 30-45kt winds in the low levels of the
atmosphere. Saturday mid morning onward, am again looking for
erosion of MVFR ceilings (except maybe at the coast) with wind
speeds again increasing and becoming gusty. 47

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 206 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

A long fetch of southerly to southeasterly winds will persist
throughout the weekend leading periods of elevated winds and seas.
A Small Craft Advisory is in effect through at least Sunday
morning for the bays and Gulf waters. Mariners can expect wave
heights to peak at 7-9 ft Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning
before seas go on a gradual decreasing trend into early next week.
This prolonged period of elevated onshore flow will also increase
the rip current risk and lead to water levels in and around the
bays during high tide to top out near 3.0 ft above MLLW.
Shower/storm chances start up on Sunday as a frontal boundary
approaches and stalls out inland. Rain chances persist throughout
most of next week as a multiple disturbances pass through the
area.

Batiste

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  69  86  69  83 /   0  20  10  80
Houston (IAH)  71  85  72  86 /   0  10  10  70
Galveston (GLS)  73  81  73  81 /   0  10   0  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ330-335-350-
     355-370-375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...47
LONG TERM....Batiste
AVIATION...47
MARINE...Batiste