081
FXUS64 KHGX 192005
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
305 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024

While there is certainly some disappointment with the tease of fall
temperatures, we hope that at the very least you are able to get out
and enjoy the beautiful weather this weekend. You can thank high
pressure over the Eastern half of the CONUS for the benign weather.

Warm and humid conditions will continue through the short-term as
moisture continues to funnel in, courtesy of the onshore flow. Highs
for tomorrow will be slightly warmer than what was experienced today
with temperatures in the 80s across much of the area.

For tonight, expect lows in the upper 40s to near 60 degrees N of I-
10. Further South, lows will generally be in the 60s to near 70
degrees. Skies will be mostly clear with light winds out of the
east. Sunday night`s lows will be slightly cooler as winds briefly
become ENE under mostly clear skies.

While moisture will increase over the course of the weekend,
yielding PW values of around 1-1.5", high pressure is continuing to
produce subsident air. This will keep a cap in place over the area
and limit rain chances over land.

Adams

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024

When looking at the expected pattern next week, one might assume
the presence of changing weather given all the moving parts. A
robust mid/upper low will flatten the mid/upper ridge over Texas
on Tuesday-Wednesday. Afterward, the ridge will retrograde
westward as a frontal boundary pushes southward towards our
region. However, you`d be mistaken if you thought these features
were going to bring significant day to day changes in next week`s
forecast. Monday-Friday afternoon highs are expected to remain
well into the 80s, possibly reaching 90 in some areas. The
gradually building humidity will trend overnight lows warmer as
the week progresses. Monday`s lows are expected to be in the mid
50s to low 60s. By week`s end, areas near the coast and within the
core of Houston`s urban heat island may struggle to dip below 70
while most elsewhere falls into the low/mid 60s. The lone
exception to this trend could be Thursday when the aforementioned
frontal boundary could drop temperatures and humidity somewhat for
a day. For now, we`ve opted for a slight reduction in humidity on
Thursday with little to no change in temperature.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1254 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the end of the period.
Winds will be out of the E, with gusts to around 20 kts at times.
Winds will relax this evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 205 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024

Enhanced easterly flow and elevated seas will keep Small Craft
Advisory conditions in the forecast through Monday morning for the
nearshore and offshore waters. Winds and seas should gradually
decrease on Monday into Tuesday. Relatively light winds and low
seas are expected to prevail through the end of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  55  86  54  87 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  59  85  57  85 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  71  79  71  79 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM CDT Sunday for TXZ436>439.

     High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through Sunday morning for
     GMZ330-335.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT Monday for GMZ350-355-370-
     375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Adams
LONG TERM....Self
AVIATION...Adams
MARINE...Self