055
FXUS64 KHGX 221154
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
554 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday Night)
Issued at 309 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

The short term forecast will remain characterized by cool and dry
conditions, though a gradual warming trend is expected to begin as
we approach the middle of the weekend. For now, another cool night
is in store with many surface stations as of 3PM CST again running
below model guidance for overnight temperatures. Portions of the
northern zones have dropped into the upper 30s, with temperatures
so far in the mid to upper 40s elsewhere. A dry and relatively
pleasant day is on the cards to close out the work week with broad
surface high pressure in the Central Plains being the dominant
synoptic feature. Look for daytime highs in the upper 60s to
lower 70s, light winds, and mostly clear skies. Lows should yet
again reach the upper 30s to lower 40s.

A pattern shift gets underway on Saturday as the aforementioned
area of high pressure pushes off to the east, slowly bringing
about a return to an onshore flow regime for our area. With the
return of WAA and moisture transport, we should see highs in the
mid/upper 70s for most of the area while lows will sit in the 50s.

Cady

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 309 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

The extended forecast looks to be an active one as a series of cold
fronts move into and across SE TX next week.

With the surface high shifting further east of the region and pres-
sures falling over the Southern Plains on Sun, the tightening grad-
ient should result in increasing onshore winds/warming temperatures
for Sun/Mon. Highs are expected to reach the lower to mid 80s as we
start of the week. The next cold front is expected to drop SSE from
the Plains and into the area by Mon night. While low-level moisture
is going to be limited for much of the CWA...we could see some very
isolated showers form by early Tues morning as the boundary reaches
our coastal counties/Gulf waters.

Thereafter, global models are indicating that this front will even-
tually stall along to just off the coast by Tues night. However, we
will be seeing the rapid return of onshore winds by Wed as the next
system moves off the Rockies and begins deepening over the Southern
Plains. Isolated to scattered convection will be possible on Wed as
the upper jet pattern becomes more favorable and low-level moisture
increase (PWs 1.4"-1.6"). All of this will be setting the stage for
a second stronger cold front, which should move into and across the
CWA on Thanksgiving Day (if models do verify). So, the potential is
there for a warmish soggy turkey day this year. 41

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 550 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

VFR conditions will prevail over the course of the TAF period.
Expect mostly clear skies, with perhaps a few high clouds filling
in later this evening. Winds will remain out of the NE/N, becoming
light and variable overnight.

Cady

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 309 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

Light northerly winds and low seas will prevail today. But as high
pressure begins moving east of the region...winds will become more
easterly tonight/tomorrow. Onshore winds are set to return by late
tomorrow night...strengthening on Sun as the gradient tightens (in
response to the next system moving into the Southern Plains). SCEC
or SCA flags may be needed by Mon. The next cold front is expected
to move into the bays/nearshore waters by early Tues morning, then
stalling in/near this same region by Tue night. Moderate to strong
onshore winds will be returning on Weds along with the possibility
of Caution/Advisory flags once again. A second stronger cold front
is forecast to move into SE TX on Thurs (Thanksgiving Day)...maybe
not reaching the Gulf waters until sometime that night. Stay tuned.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  72  42  75  54 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  72  45  74  56 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  70  61  73  66 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cady
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...Cady
MARINE...41