681
FXUS64 KHGX 141827
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
127 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - A Heat Advisory is now in effect for most of the area through
   Tuesday evening. Temperatures should remain above normal
   through at least mid-week.

 - Diurnally driven isolated showers and thunderstorms expected
   this week; mainly for locations near and south of I-10. Higher
   chances expected on Thursday.

 - Increased winds, seas, rain chances in the marine waters late
   Wednesday into late Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 120 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

A broad mid-level ridge is expected to meander over the Tennessee
Valley through mid-week and will help limit shower activity over
Southeast Texas. However, there may be sufficient low-level
moisture (PWs of 1.7-2.0 inches) and afternoon instability over
areas south of the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods region to produce
a few showers and storms throughout the daytime hours.

The main concern for the couple of days is the increased heat
threat. The highs will be in the mid to upper 90s for most inland
areas and in the lower 90s for much of the coastal locations today
into Wednesday. Heat indices are expected to peak between 106-110
deg F today and Tuesday, slightly lower on Wednesday if drier air
moves in. Thus, the Heat Advisory has been extended and is now in
effect through Tuesday evening. Make sure to practice heat safety
if you plan to work or spend time outdoors. Drink plenty of
fluids, stay in an air-conditioned room, stay out of the sun, and
try to limit strenuous activities to early morning or evening.

An increase in shower and thunderstorm activity is expected
Wednesday night to Thursday as a surge of moisture from the
northern Gulf waters moves into the Upper Texas Coast, with the
caveat that the mid-level ridge shifting wwd into Arkansas and
Oklahoma on Thursday could suppress rain chances. For this
issuance, have kept the higher PoPs for showers and thunderstorms
(50-70%) over areas near and south of I-10, where the highest
moisture amounts are expected to be along with areas least
influenced by the ridge. Increase cloud coverage and shower
activity could bring back down the high temperatures to the lower
to mid 90s range on Thursday. For Friday into the upcoming
weekend, expect mostly isolated showers and thunderstorms as drier
air moves over Southeast Texas.

Cotto

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 120 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Surface low pressure along Matagorda Bay and the afternoon
seabreeze will drive SHRA/TSRA chances this afternoon. Given the
location of the low pressure and the typical summertime seabreeze
pattern, SHRA/TSRA chances are highest to the west of I-45 and
along the I-10 corridor. Interacting outflow boundaries from the
two systems could cause variable and gusty conditions (between
15-20 kts) in an otherwise southerly flow between 5-10 kts. These
SHRA/TSRA chances should deplete around 22Z Monday. Winds become
light and variable by 05Z Tuesday and pick up again out of the
south/southeast by 15Z. Another round of afternoon seabreeze
showers to start around 18Z Tuesday, although ridging aloft could
result in more isolated coverage. Apart from these gusty winds
around storms and daily rain chances, the main concern for
worsening flight categories is between 10-14Z Tuesday with MVFR
CIGs possible mainly for our northern sites (CLL, UTS, CXO) and
MVFR VIS possible around sunrise for CXO and LBX.

BSM

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 120 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

High pressure centered across the northern Gulf will continue to
bring light onshore winds and seas of 2 to 3 ft. Isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected each day. Expect
this activity to develop overnight through early afternoon. The
best rain and storm chances are forecast to be late Wednesday into
Thursday as a weak disturbance moves through. Moderate easterly
winds and building seas (up to 6FT) are possible Wed night into
early Friday as this disturbance moves across the Upper TX coast.
Caution flags or advisory conditions will be possible during this
time frame. Light to occasionally onshore winds resume Friday,
persisting through the weekend.

JM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  98  76  99  76 /  20   0  10   0
Houston (IAH)  94  78  95  78 /  40   0  20   0
Galveston (GLS)  91  84  92  83 /  20   0  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ163-164-176>179-
     195>200-210>213-226-227-235>238-313-335-338.

GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cotto
AVIATION...BSM
MARINE...JM