137
FXUS64 KHGX 031932
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
232 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 229 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Overall we`re still in a similar pattern to the previous day, with a
broader trough over the Desert Southwest tightening the pressure
gradient to keep a 40-60 kt LLJ overhead. Gusty winds continue this
afternoon, reaching 25 to 35 mph in spots. A Wind Advisory will be
in effect until 5 PM today for most areas along and south of the US-
59 corridor.

The parameter space for the severe weather threat today looks
similar to that of yesterday. The HREF still shows 30-60 knots of
bulk shear in place with SFC CAPE ranging from 2000-3700 J/KG in the
afternoon. SFC CIN is progged to reach -5 J/KG across the Brazos
Valley to -50 J/KG closer to the coast. Forecast soundings still
show drier midlevels with lapse rates from 7.0-8.25 degC/km. DCAPE
is over 1000 J/KG with TEI values of 25-32. Forcing is lacking
still, but with the stalled frontal boundary sagging south,
compressional heating ahead of it could enhance convection. We
already have a few showers developing over this area already as
conditions near convective temps. SPC mesoanalysis shows microburst
composite parameter values near 6-8 around this area of showers.

SPC has a Marginal (level 1/5) Risk of severe storms bordering our
northern counties this afternoon though this evening. While we`re
likely to see no more than a few showers this afternoon, it is
entirely feasible that some pulse-y storms could pop up this
afternoon. All severe hazards are on the table still, though
damaging winds and large hail will be the main concern to watch for
if any thunderstorms pull together.

On Friday the upper level trough trudges eastward. The presence of
the LLJ overhead will still bring winds gusts of 25 to 35 mph,
necessitating another Wind Advisory. The stalled frontal boundary is
expected to push southward towards the fringes of SE Texas Friday
evening, continuing southward into Saturday. Ahead of this line, the
last two HRRR runs have 25 m2s2 updraft helicity paint balls in
place over our northeastern counties near Crockett/Livingston.
Better clustering exists further northwest, though it`ll be an area
to watch Friday afternoon as we reach peak heating, especially with
a similar environment still in place. We`ll lose some instability
during the evening, potentially seeing lull in activity before
the cold front slowly makes is way into the area, mainly overnight
into early Saturday. SPC now has portions of the Brazos
Valley/Piney Woods under a Slight (level 2/5) Risk of severe
weather on Friday. All severe hazards are on the table once again,
though rising SRH increases the risk of more organized storms and
or isolated tornadoes. This severe weather risk continues into
Saturday as the front continues through the area.

03

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 229 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Main story this long term is the severe weather threat for Saturday.
A large upper level low swinging in from the Desert Southwest will
finally bring that stalled boundary that has been hanging around to
our northwest through the region on Saturday. FROPA is still looking
to occur during the morning hours (8-10am) through the Brazos
Valley, early to mid afternoon along the I-45 Corridor, and then off
to the east by the late afternoon or evening. After days of deep
southerly flow across SE Texas, PWATs will be surging to 1.6-1.9"
ahead of the front. Combine that with instability (LREF mean CAPE is
around 1500-2000+ J/kg ahead of the front) and high shear is a
recipe for strong to severe thunderstorms. Storms that develop ahead
of and along the cold front will be capable of producing damaging
wind gusts, hail, and tornadoes. So, Saturday is a day stay weather-
aware and to make sure you have ways to get warnings, if they are
issued. SPC has placed most of SE Texas in a Slight Risk (level 2 of
5) for Severe Weather with an Enhanced Risk (level 3 of 5) to the
northeast across the TX/LA border. WPC also has a Marginal to Slight
Risk (level 1-2 of 4) across the area for Excessive Rainfall as the
isolated strong to severe storms may drop upwards of 1-2"+ of
rain which could lead to some minor flooding if they happen over
areas of poor drainage.

Once the front is through Saturday evening, the threat for severe
weather ends. And with high pressure building in behind the front we
will likely not see any additional precipitation through most of
next week.

The high temperature on Saturday will be highly dependent on the
quickness of the front. With current model guidance on FROPA timing,
have high temperatures in the low 80s along and south of I-10 and
mid to upper 70s to the north. However a slower FROPA, expect more
of the area getting into the 80s, but a quicker FROPA keeping most
of the region in the 70s. Low temperatures Saturday night will be in
the mid to upper 40s north and west of the Houston Metro and low to
mid 50s to the south and east. There will be a slow climb in
temperatures through the rest of the long term with highs on Sunday
in the upper 50s to mid 60s, then mid 60s to low 70s on Monday, mid
to upper 70s on Tuesday, and finally back to the low 80s by
Wednesday. Low temperatures will see a similar trend: generally low
to mid 40s on Sunday night and Monday night, low to mid 50s Tuesday
night, and mid to upper 50s on Wednesday night.

Fowler

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Moderate southerly winds gusting to 20-30 knots continue this
afternoon with MVFR/VFR conditions expected. Areas further inland
will likely scatter to VFR FL like yesterday, whereas areas
near the coast may see only short breaks in cloud cover or
potentially none at all. Isolated showers may develop in the
afternoon, though confidence it too low to include in the current
TAF. MVFR conditions fill back in this evening. Intermittent IFR
CIGs may fill in at times tonight/Friday morning, though MVFR FLs
should dominate across the broader area. CIGs slowly lift
Friday morning with MVFR/VFR conditions likely through the
afternoon. Rain chances slowly increase through the afternoon as a
cold front approaches the area.

03

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 229 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Moderate to strong onshore winds will continue through Saturday with
speeds of 15-25kt and occasional gusts to 35kt. Those occasional
higher wind gusts will become more frequents Friday afternoon
through Saturday morning as a cold front approaches the region from
the west. This persistent strong onshore winds are also causing
increased seas to 6-10ft (and occasionally higher wave heights to
12ft). Small Craft Advisories remain in effect through Saturday
morning, but will likely need to extended into Sunday as moderate to
strong offshore winds develop behind the cold front and with
lingering high wave heights. There is also a Beach Hazards Statement
out through Saturday morning as the onshore winds lead to an
elevated risk of strong rip currents and abnormally high tides to
around 3.5ft above MLLW.

Mariners should remain weather-aware on Saturday as a cold front
moves through the area bringing with it a chance of strong to severe
thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind gusts, hail, and
tornadoes/waterspouts. The timing of this front in the coastal
waters will likely be during the afternoon and evening hours on
Saturday. High pressure builds in over the area Sunday with light
winds and low seas prevailing through next week.

Fowler

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 317 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

On Wednesday, April 2, four out of five climate sites (all except
Galveston) broke their records for daily high minimum temperature.
There is potential today for the double...both record high maximum
and record high minimum temperatures are in jeopardy for a few
locations. Here are today`s daily records:

Record High Maximum Temperatures:
- College Station: 90F (1939)
- Houston/Bush: 87F (2023)
- Houston/Hobby: 88F (2023)
- Palacios: 87F (1974)
- Galveston: 84F (1998)

Record High Minimum Temperatures:
- College Station: 72F (2014)
- Houston/Bush: 74F (2023)
- Houston/Hobby: 74F (2023)
- Palacios: 75F (2023)
- Galveston: 74F (2023)

Batiste

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  75  89  65  76 /  20  50  80  90
Houston (IAH)  76  89  74  83 /  20  20  50  90
Galveston (GLS)  76  84  74  80 /  10  10  30  60

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Wind Advisory until 5 PM CDT this afternoon for TXZ178-179-199-
     200-213-214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-436>439.

     Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM CDT Friday for TXZ200-213-214-
     226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-436>439.

     Beach Hazards Statement through late Friday night for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Saturday for GMZ330-335-350-
     355-370-375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM....Fowler
AVIATION...03
MARINE...Fowler