624
FXUS64 KHGX 161815
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1215 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unseasonably warm weather will persist through midweek.

- Periods of late night and early morning fog possible on a daily
  basis.

- Rain chances remain minimal through Tuesday, then increase
  Wednesday into Thursday ahead of an approaching disturbance. A
  cold front is expected to pass through the area on late Thursday
  bringing a stronger round of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1121 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

Patchy, dense at times, fog developed this morning and this will
continue nightly through the next few nights. Rural, low-lying
areas will have the greatest chances of seeing some dense fog, but
most areas will likely see at least some patchy fog. The fog will
dissipate through the morning hours, but any commuters may want to
add some extra time in the mornings in case of slow-downs from the
fog.

The unseasonably warm and increasingly humid weather will continue
through at least midweek with high temperatures running around 15
degrees above normal and overnight lows as much as 20 degrees
above normal. This translates to high temperatures in the mid to
upper 80s and overnight lows in the mid 60s to low 70s. These warm
conditions are thanks to the ridge of high pressure above us and
southerly flow at the surface.

The area will remain mostly rain-free through Tuesday with the
exception of some isolated, light coastal showers possibly Tuesday
afternoon. But, rain-chances return mid to late week as an upper
level low approaches from the west. There have been a few changes
to the forecast compared to previous updates. The main reason for
these changes is the guidance is showing that the high pressure
over head now will remain be slow to move out to the east/remain
fairly strong. This has lead to the rain chances on Wednesday to
decrease as the weak disturbances moving through the southwesterly
flow aloft to remain to the west. I have still kept the mention
of slight chance to chance of showers/storms on Wednesday, but the
PoPs are decreasing and may further decrease in future updates.
If we do get activity on Wednesday, the areas with the best
chances will be the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods region. With a
slower exiting high pressure, the cold front associated with the
large upper level disturbance will be slower to push through the
area. As of right now, FROPA now looks to occur late Thursday
night. However, this is still 4-5 days away and this trend may
reverse course in further updates. We can expect increasing shower
and thunderstorm coverage through the day on Thursday ahead of
the approaching front, and then possible a line of shower and
storms to accompany the front. There will be a chance for some
isolated strong to possibly severe thunderstorms, but it`s looking
to be a conditional threat at this time. There will be plenty of
shear for storms to work with, but instability may be a limiting
factor (a high shear/low CAPE environment).

This front will usher in cooler temperatures that bring us back
down to near or only slightly above normal (5 degrees above normal
will feel much better than our current 15-20 degrees above
normal). There is uncertainty on how quickly the southerly flow
(and thus warmer/more humid air) returns to the area. Could be as
soon as Friday evening, or later in the weekend. There may be
additional chances of rain over the weekend, but uncertainty is
too high to get into any sort of detail at this time.

Fowler

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 531 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

After holding out later than previous nights, flight conditions
are degrading in a fairly widespread fashion across SETX early
this morning. In some places, this is 1/4-1/2SM FG (LBX, CXO)
while in other it is low MVFR and even some IFR stratus (CLL, UTS,
SGR). IAH, HOU, and GLS remain VFR, but satellite shows CIGs are
right on the edge of IAH, and so have an early MVFR TEMPO for a
potential brief impingement of these clouds on the field.

Conditions should improve with the rising sun, and should be back
to VFR across the area by mid to late morning, with south winds
5-10 knots anticipated in the afternoon. For tonight, bring things
back to the edge of IFR after 06Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1121 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

Forecast will be persistence through the next few days with
continued light to occasionally moderate onshore flow and low
seas. Some patchy fog will be possible nightly in the northern
parts of the Bays as inland fog may creep out over the water.

The onshore flow is expected to increase late Wednesday into
Thursday ahead of an approaching disturbance from the west. The
south-southeasterly winds may increase to around 20-25kt which
will persist through Thursday. The increasing winds will also lead
to increasing seas. Small Craft Advisories may be needed
Wednesday night through Thursday night, and there will also be an
increasing risk of strong rip-currents during this time.

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible on
Thursday ahead of the approaching disturbance, and then a line of
showers and storms will be possible Thursday night as the
associated cold front moves through the coast waters. The frontal
passage will bring a period of offshore winds on Friday, but may
quickly return to onshore flow by Friday night.

Fowler

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  66  86  66  86 /  10  10   0  10
Houston (IAH)  67  84  67  86 /   0  10   0  10
Galveston (GLS)  71  79  71  79 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Fowler
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...Fowler