Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
334 FXUS64 KHGX 081121 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 621 AM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1215 AM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025 - Another hot day on tap with some locations somewhat close to record highs, but some relief is on the way. - Hazardous marine conditions possible during the second half of the work week, including the potential for some minor coastal flooding. - Will need to monitor fire weather conditions the next few days with dry fuel and a slight increase in wind speed anticipated. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1215 AM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025 Another relatively hot day is anticipated. Daytime highs probably won`t reach records but they could get within a few degrees (CLL 97/1892, IAH & HOU 96/1962, GLS 90/2017, PSX 93/2024). An expansive surface high across the northern CONUS will track eastward while at the same time expanding further south. This will allow for drier air to backdoor into the region as we head into the remainder of the week. Afternoon readings will still be above seasonable norms, however overnight lows will trend further downward into the 60s and maybe even some 50s in the Piney Woods Thurs-Sat nights. As far as rain chances go, they too will trend downward (not that they were ever high). But after a few seabreeze showers closer to the coast later this afternoon, overall chances get closer to zero for almost all of the region. Mid level ridging is firmly in place, and looks to remain so well into next week. May be able to add some isolated chances closer to the coast Mon or Tue once onshore winds set back up and become better established...but do not look worth advertising at this point. 47 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 621 AM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025 VFR everywhere but LBX, which has seen VSBY drop to as low as 3/4SM this morning. This is the topline for its TAF, and also have a brief MVFR TEMPO for CXO in case of a sunrise surprise. However, by 15Z we should be VFR for all sites with another day of NE-E winds. I do expect a little more wind today as a weak front approaches the region, with peaks this afternoon up around 10 kts. The inherited PROB30s from HOU/SGR coastward may, very strictly speaking, be a touch aggressive. But I do think they`re useful in highlighting where the best potential for afternoon showers will be and will keep them even if a "true" PoP is maybe closer to 20 or so? While winds will slack off this evening, they may stay up enough to stave off fog at most places, and so have only a light mention at LBX. && .MARINE... Issued at 1215 AM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025 ENE-E winds will be ramping upward today into Fri as the pressure gradient tightens between ridging to the north and lower pressures over the Bay of Campeche area. Might need some caution flags by late tonight and possibly a combo of caution/advisory flags Thursday and Friday as speeds get into the 15-25kt range and seas build to 4-7ft. Risk for rip currents will also increase along area beaches during that time period and would anticipate some statements for those too. Combination of favorable easterly fetch and moon phase will drive water levels/tides higher than normal. PETSS guidance shows levels peaking near 3.5ft MLLW around high tide times tonight and 3.7-4.ft MLLW Thurs and Friday evenings. We start seeing some coastal flood issues around 3.7ft at the lower spots, and slightly more issues once they get to 4.0ft and above. Residents between the Bolivar Peninsula should be on the lookout for potential coastal flood advisory issuances should the forecast remain about the same. Improved conditions (winds, seas, tides) should gradually be expected this weekend as the gradient weakens. 47 && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1215 AM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025 Though the end of the work week forecast RH`s will be above Red Flag Warning Criteria, but it should be noted fuels remain dry. Wind speeds will however increase. Conditions will be a little different than what we saw last week (low RH`s & light winds favoring favorable starts but slower spreads). The next few days will generally feature RH`s in the 28-38% and winds in the 10-20mph range. This would tend to favor slower starts, but faster spreading of anything that does. The Texas A&M Forest Service is forecasting a moderate-high fire danger rating. Please exercise caution when working with open flames/equipment that can cause sparks, especially in dry spots. 47 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 94 69 92 63 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 94 72 91 66 / 20 10 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 89 77 87 73 / 20 20 10 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...47 AVIATION...Luchs MARINE...47