Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
928 FXUS64 KHGX 292243 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 543 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1149 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 - Very hot and mostly dry conditions today and tomorrow. Couldn`t rule out isolated shower/storm tomorrow. - Higher shower/thunderstorm chances and less hot temperatures conditions Thursday through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1149 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 A strong mid/upper ridge continues to dominate the pattern over the Lone Star State, bringing hot and mostly dry conditions. Dew points this afternoon are expected to mix down somewhat, helping to keep those heat index values mostly below advisory thresholds. But don`t let this trick you into thinking that it will feel `nice` when you step outside. Afternoon temperatures are expected to average in the 95 to 100 degree range, with heat index values averaging 102 to 107. Tomorrow appears similar. However, the ramifications of a mid/upper pattern in flux could be noticeable by late afternoon. A mid-level trough over SE CONUS will push southwest towards Texas. The system may provide enough lift to bring some shower/thunderstorm activity to our region as early as late afternoon or evening tomorrow. Best chance of seeing a shower or storm is east of I-45. Tomorrow`s Pops are generally low, but not zero. PoPs will gradually increase as the system approaches from the east, introducing more lift over an increasingly PWAT- rich atmosphere. Thursday features a better chance of isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms. But the best chance of showers/storms appears to be Friday into the weekend. Much like the recent disturbances, there will be a chance of locally heavy rainfall and localized flooding. Oh the joy of living on the Gulf Coast. Temperatures will become less hot as rain chances and cloud coverage rise. But most areas are still expected to reach the low/mid 90s. Self && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 543 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 VFR conditions and light winds will prevail going into the evening hours. With similar conditions to Monday night/Tuesday morning expected, another round of patchy fog is likely especially at the usual spots (CXO/SGR/LBX). This could lead to intermittent MVFR/IFR conditions mainly between 10Z-14Z. Other terminals could see brief periods of reduced visibilities right around sunrise. Wednesday morning will start out light westerly to southwesterly winds and becoming southerly along the coast behind the seabreeze. There is slight potential for isolated convection east of I-45, but chances are too low to include that in any of the TAFs for now. Batiste && .MARINE... Issued at 1149 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2025 Generally low seas and light to occasionally moderate winds are forecast to prevail this week. By Thursday and beyond, the chance of showers and thunderstorms is expected to increase. Locally heavy thunderstorms capable of producing locally higher winds and seas are possible Thursday through the weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 73 100 76 98 / 0 10 0 10 Houston (IAH) 77 98 79 96 / 0 20 10 30 Galveston (GLS) 81 94 83 92 / 0 20 20 30 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Self AVIATION...Batiste MARINE...Self