Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
582 FXUS64 KHGX 072305 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 605 PM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1135 AM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025 - Isolated showers and storms will be possible along the coast and in the Gulf waters through the next several days - Hazardous marine conditions possible Wednesday night through Friday - Dry conditions Friday into Saturday may lead to increased fire weather potential. Please exercise caution when working with open flames/equipment that can cause sparks, especially in dry spots. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1041 AM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025 Other than a few isolated afternoon showers and storms along the coast over the next few days, we will remain rain-free through this upcoming week as an upper level ridge of high pressure builds over Texas. The rising heights and dry weather will lead to above normal temperatures with afternoon high temperatures rising into the low to mid-90s through Wednesday. Mild and muggy overnight conditions continue with lows generally in the low to mid-70s. A weak boundary will push into the area from the northeast Thursday into Friday ushering in slightly cooler, but much drier conditions. Daytime temperatures will cool a few degrees (highs generally in the upper 80s to low 90s), but overnight temperatures will drop into the low to mid-60s for much of the area with spots in the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods down into the upper 50s. The drier conditions but still warm afternoon temperatures will lead to afternoon relative humidity to drop into the 20-30% range for areas north of I-10. Winds will be light enough to limit fire danger somewhat, but the low RH values and dry vegetation may lead to fast fire starts. Fowler && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 604 PM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025 Seabreeze currently situated along a Katy-Liberty line and is still making some northward progress. Further inland, there are some remnant showers drifting south from Cleveland-Tomball area. There is a non-zero chance we could see some iso-sct precip develop in between those two features in the next hour or so...possibly impacting the IAH for a short duration early this evening. Have included a PROB30 there to account for this. Elsewhere, remnant boundary/seabreeze driven precip will taper off in the not too distant future with the loss of heating. VFR conditions will prevail for the next 30+ hours with a few exceptions: some patchy late night & early morning fog at the usual susceptible non-metro terminals, and also a low end possibility of MVFR conditions in/near any very isolated late afternoon storms should a few manage to develop late in the day Wed afternoon. More favored locations for these would mainly be along and south of the I-10 corridor. 47 && .MARINE... Issued at 1041 AM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025 Light easterly to northeasterly winds and low seas will prevail through Wednesday. An increase in the northeasterly winds will begin Wednesday Night, up to around 15-25kt, and persist through Friday causing seas to build to 4-6ft. Small Craft Advisories are likely needed during this timeframe. The increase in onshore winds and high astronomical tides will lead to higher than normal water-levels in the Bays and higher than normal tides along Gulf-facing beaches. Guidance currently has high tides up to around 3.5-4.0ft above Mean Low Low Water beginning Thursday. Fowler && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 70 93 68 90 / 10 10 0 0 Houston (IAH) 73 93 73 90 / 20 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 77 88 76 87 / 0 10 10 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Fowler AVIATION...47 MARINE...Fowler