Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
593 FXUS64 KHGX 111133 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 633 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1122 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 - Daily chances for isolated to scattered showers and storms continues throughout the forecast period with the highest chances along and south of I-10. - High temperatures mainly in the low to mid 90s throughout the week with heat indices peaking in the 102-106F range. - Increasing temperature trend possible heading into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1122 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Wait the forecast is hot and humid with daily chances of showers and storms?! Always has been...and that`ll continue throughout the week as we remain in a general trough-y pattern even after the departure of the upper level disturbance currently overhead after Monday. That along with fluctuations of moisture from the Gulf will keep rain chances in the forecast throughout the week. Rain chances will remain the highest near and south of I-10, and the strongest storms will be capable of producing gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall. This will allow for daytime temperatures to top out mainly in the low to mid 90s for most of the week...heat indices will still be in the triple digits though. Around midweek, mid to upper level high pressure begins to build in the southeastern CONUS. Moisture wrapping around its western periphery will push into southeast TX leading to greater moisture availability for the sea breeze to tap into. This means we will likely see greater coverage in showers/storms during the afternoon hours in the middle to later parts of the work week. Keep in mind though that not everyone will see rain, but if you do you`ll get a brief reprieve from the heat. That mid to upper level high still looks to gradually expand westward along the Gulf Coast going into the weekend leading to increasing temperatures and decreasing chances for showers and storms. It still remains to be seen on how much moisture sticks around into the weekend, but the increased subsidence should at least limit the coverage of convective development. Probabilities for high temperatures greater than 95F increase to 50+% for most of Southeast Texas (except coastal areas) over the weekend...so take that for what you may. Batiste && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 608 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025 Thunderstorms that developed overnight along the I-10 corridor has helped to "work over" the atmosphere a bit near IAH/HOU/SGR leading to a decrease in activity currently with most thunderstorms developing near the coast. VCTS will continue to be possible at GLS and LBX through the morning, but isolated thunderstorms may begin to redevelop along the I-10 corridor this afternoon thanks to daytime heating and a gradual return of moisture. Winds will by gusty near any storms that develop. Any activity over land will end by sunset, then additional showers and storms may re- develop over the Gulf water late tonight into early Tuesday. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail with light/variable winds during the overnight and morning periods, then becoming predominately southeasterly during the afternoons. Some patchy fog is possible near CXO, LBX, and SGR near sunrise Tuesday. Fowler && .MARINE... Issued at 1122 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 Light to occasionally moderate (with the afternoon seabreeze) onshore flow and low seas will persist throughout the week. Daily chances for isolated to scattered showers and storms continue with activity initiating over the Gulf waters during the overnight to early morning hours, then moving inland in the late morning/afternoon hours. Winds and seas could be locally higher in and around any of the stronger storms. Towards the end of the work week, onshore flow becomes consistently in the moderate range leading to wave heights in the Gulf increasing to 3-4 ft. Batiste && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 95 75 94 76 / 20 10 30 10 Houston (IAH) 94 78 96 79 / 50 10 50 10 Galveston (GLS) 90 81 91 82 / 60 20 40 20 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Batiste AVIATION...Fowler MARINE...Batiste