Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
877 FXUS64 KHGX 261801 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 101 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 ...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1242 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 - Chances for showers and storms each day throughout the forecast, mainly during the daytime. Lowest PoPs on Friday, with the greatest on Sunday. - Plume of Saharan dust moves in Saturday evening/Sunday, bringing hazy-white skies throughout portions of next week. - Temperatures slowly trend upwards, reaching the mid/upper 90s with triple digit heat indices by next week. 03 && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1242 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Conditions today should be overall less active than days prior. Broad ridging remains situated across the Southern Plains to the Eastern sea board with weak embedded lows/disturbances aloft. Deep PWs of 2.0 inches or more remain situated over the region, though forcing remains lackluster. Still, scattered showers and a few stray thunderstorms are ongoing, mainly west of Houston. CAMs are not capturing this activity very well, and while the hourly HRRR runs are starting to catch up, it still seems fixated on shifting this activity near the metro/coastline this afternoon, similar to that of typical summertime sea-breeze convection. While some isolated activity has developed in these areas, the highest rain chances & coverage will likely stay west of I-45 today, where the main instability axis coincides with sfc theta E advection and moisture convergence. Highs this afternoon will generally be in the upper 80s to lower 90s with overnight lows in the 70s to lower 80s. Friday is shaping up to be a similar story as broad ridging continues to dominate the southern CONUS, though with notably lower PoPs. Larger pattern changes begin on Saturday as 500mb heights within the ridge creep upwards slightly, remaining near 588-592dam, along with the main ridge axis shifting from the east coast to the ArkLaTex area. Deep PWs and some weaker embedded disturbances could bring some showers and thunderstorms, though activity will generally scattered to isolated. A plume of Saharan dust will move into SE Texas Saturday evening, bringing hazy- white skies through late next week as this airmass remains in place. Coinciding with the rising midlevel heights, 850mb temperatures will also gradually rise from 16-19C on Friday to 18-22C early next week. The Saharan dust could modify temps downward, though only by a slight amount and primarily on Sunday and Monday when the Dust Aerosol Optical Thickness is greatest. Otherwise, temperatures trend upward with highs reaching the upper 80s/upper 90s next week with heat indices in the triple digits. 03 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 600 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 With the exception of scattered tstms today, VFR conditions and light winds will prevail. Precip will taper off in the early evening with the loss of heating. Locations north of the metro area, mainly CLL and possibly UTS, might see some late night MVFR stratus and patchy fog development heading into Fri morning. 47 && .MARINE... Issued at 1242 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Light to occasionally moderate onshore winds (mostly 10 to 15 knots) and seas of 2 to 5 feet will prevail over the next several days. Scattered showers and storms will be possible daily, with chances lowest on Friday. A plume of of Saharan dust moves over the region Saturday evening/Sunday. As this drier Saharan airmass remains in place, lower rain chances and higher temperatures can be expected throughout next week. Rip current risk across the Gulf beaches will generally be moderate throughout the forecast period. 03 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 72 92 73 93 / 20 10 0 10 Houston (IAH) 74 91 76 92 / 20 30 0 30 Galveston (GLS) 81 89 82 89 / 10 20 10 30 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...03 AVIATION...47 MARINE...03