587
FXUS64 KHGX 211755
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1155 AM CST Fri Feb 21 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 323 AM CST Fri Feb 21 2025

Cold, February conditions persist this morning, but a gradual
warming trend will get kicked off by a passing coastal low this
weekend. Of course, that coastal low also means rain this weekend,
focused on Saturday night. Some other highlights of the forecast:

- A cold weather advisory is in place through noon as temps and
northeast winds combine to push wind chills into the teens and lower
20s. Conditions will improve, but for now it`s good to  keep those
cold protections up.
- Rain chances will be on the rise late tonight, through Saturday,
and into Sunday while a coastal Gulf low passes through the  region.
There`s no real severe storm or flooding concerns, but  we do look
to get ourselves a decent soaker and a handful of  lightning
strikes, particularly closer to the coast. On the  waters, rough
conditions from this low will keep small craft  advisories in the
picture.
- Warming conditions take over next week, and by mid-week, we`ll  be
looking for highs well into the 70s and pushing 80 degrees in  the
warm spots.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday Night)
Issued at 323 AM CST Fri Feb 21 2025

Well, clouds finally went away like they were supposed to earlier on
Thursday...and then they came right back in the evening...but this
time at least on the expected schedule. These clouds are keeping
temperatures warmer than last night, and winds are also a little
lighter, though still generally up around 10 mph. As a result, we`re
able to escape a need for any extreme cold warnings overnight and
this morning, but we`re still looking at wind chills coming down in
to the upper teens and lower 20s, and that is cold enough to prompt
a cold weather advisory as a reminder that we need to keep our cold
weather protections up.

"When will it ever end?" hot weather lovers may ask. And, though
we`ve still got colder than average conditions ahead for a little
bit longer, we`re very clearly headed on our way out of this.
Today will show that it is not like flipping a switch, though. The
cloud cover will keep temps today mired in the upper 30s and lower
40s across the area. That means lows tonight aren`t going to be any
higher than in the 30s, but we`ve got cloud cover to help, and
onshore flow returning just aloft, with southerly winds at 850
becoming re-established.

Of course, this also means that we`re going to have moisture return
and at least some isentropic lift. Oh, and I almost forgot to
mention. A surface low is beginning to get organized off the
northeast Mexican coast and will begin to make its way up to the
northwestern Gulf. It doesn`t look particularly deep and will be far
enough off that surface flow stays northeasterly. But while things
begin to warm and moisten not too far off the deck, we`ll gradually
be looking for some rain chances to creep back into the picture late
tonight.

Before I get much deeper into this, I do want to pause a moment and
point out that...while rain chances will start out quite low as
we`ll have to moisten the surface layer from the top down, the lack
of onshore surface flow means that surface temps tonight could still
get down around freezing farther inland. So if we do manage to get a
light shower or two well inland while it`s still cold, a brief bit
of wintry precip isn`t impossible. If rain falls into a cold, dry
surface air mass, we could wet bulb our way into a handful of sleet
pellets, and eventually might manage a short bit of freezing rain
around dawn, mainly up in the northwest around Caldwell. This corner
of our forecast area will have the best chance at overlapping the
earliest moisture channel with cold enough temperatures. It`s still
not a high chance, but plausible enough that it`s worth a mention.

Okay, with that aside, let`s get into the more likely evolution of
things here. As the coastal low continues to make its way up the
western edge of the Gulf, we`ll see things moisten up enough to
start to get some light showers down in our southwest towards
Matagorda Bay through the morning on Saturday. That potential should
gradually overspread Southeast Texas through Saturday afternoon and
evening, with the best potential on the coast (and coastal waters).
Peak rain chances will be Saturday night as the low makes its
closest approach to our area, and then peel off to the east on
Sunday.

I`m not expecting a real intense event here. With no real surface
onshore flow, we`re really mitigating the increase of precipitable
water here, which only looks to peak out around or less than an
inch. Additionally, we`re also minimizing warm air advection at the
surface as well, and so we`re also not able to build a good pool of
instability to fuel more intense convective cells. Some elevated
convection will be possible, of course, but this is not an
environment that supports numerous intense updrafts and
corresponding rain rates. Instead...we get a drawn out soaker, where
we may manage to pile up more than an inch of rain along the coast
eventually...but we`ll be absent the multi-inch per hour rain rates
that cause flooding issues around here. Elevated convection and
weaker convection also will keep severe potential off the table.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 323 AM CST Fri Feb 21 2025

The coastal low continues to be a rain maker as we head into
Sunday. If the ECMWF has its way, much of the region could receive
1-2 inches of rainfall. Other models aren`t as wet but still bring
rain to most of the CWA. A nice soaking rain but nothing too
concerning. Mostly just happy lawns! Temperatures are expected to
be warmer on Sunday. But I wouldn`t call it "warm" with temps
reaching the 50s by afternoon. Breezy conditions are likely to
continue near the coast due to the steep gradient. The low will
pull away late Sunday, lowering coastal winds and bringing the
rainfall to an end.

For those yearning for warmer weather, the pattern next week is
good news! LL flow will switch to an onshore regime, bringing
warmer and more moist air northward from the Gulf. Much of the CWA
is expected to be near 70 degrees by Monday. By Wednesday, we have
most of the region between 75 and 80 degrees. The only downside to
next week`s pattern will be the potential for sea fog. Conditions
are expected to become more favorable for sea/coastal fog as warm
humid air moves over the recently chilled waters of the Gulf. In
these scenarios, it`s not uncommon for the fog to push inland
overnight. Long range guidance is hinting at another cold front by
the end of next week. But fear not! This front does not appear to
be of the arctic variety. Current global guidance suggest
temperatures drop about 10 degrees behind the front.

Self

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1151 AM CST Fri Feb 21 2025

VFR conditions will remain in place through this evening across
the area, with cloud decks holding around 5000 ft. Cigs will
begin to lower overnight, reaching MVFR levels tomorrow morning.
As a storm system approaches from the Gulf, rain chances will
increase beginning in the morning near the coast. Showers and
storms will become more widespread and expand inland over the
course of the day. Expect northeast winds to remain in place,
generally remaining below 10 knots inland and around 15 knots
along the immediate coast.

Cady

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 323 AM CST Fri Feb 21 2025
A coastal low will bring hazardous winds and seas through the
weekend. Small Craft Advisories are in effect in the bays and Gulf
waters. Winds of 20 to 25 knots with gusts over 30 knots are
expected. Seas offshore could exceed 6 feet. The low will also
bring a good chance of rain and potentially a few thunderstorms
Saturday into Sunday. Weather conditions should improve late
Sunday into early next week. However, the risk of sea fog
increases by the middle of the week as warm and moist air pushes
northward over the recently chilled waters.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  38  32  43  38 /   0  10  30  70
Houston (IAH)  40  35  44  41 /   0  20  50  80
Galveston (GLS)  44  41  50  48 /  10  20  60  80

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Cold Weather Advisory until noon CST today for TXZ163-164-
     176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-
     436>439.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST Saturday for GMZ330-350-355-
     370-375.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for GMZ335.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Luchs
LONG TERM....Self
AVIATION...Cady
MARINE...Self