196
FXUS64 KHGX 201128
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
628 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday Night)
Issued at 232 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

A line of showers and storms is currently moving through Central
Texas, but is expected to weaken/become broken as it approached
the Brazos Valley later this morning. Some isolated showers are
possible during the morning across the area as deep southerly flow
brings increased moisture. By the afternoon, a weak, slow moving
front is expected to move into the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods
region and then stalling somewhere between the I-10 corridor and
the coast this evening. Showers and thunderstorms will increase
in coverage out ahead of and along the front. While the best
dynamics for severe storms will be north of the region, the
combination of daytime heating, high moisture, and marginal shear
could lead to one of two strong or severe thunderstorms this
afternoon/evening. SPC maintains a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5)
for severe storms today for areas north of I-10, with strong winds
and hail being the primary concerns if a severe storm develops.
Because the front will be so slow moving, could see some minor
street flooding in areas of poor drainage due to slow moving
storms. WPC has placed most of the region today under a Marginal
Risk (level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall. The showers and
storms will continue to be possible tonight along the coast near
the frontal boundary, but coverage is expected to wane through
Monday morning with just a slight chance of rain through the
remainder of Monday.

High temperatures today and tomorrow will be in the low to mid 80s
(possibly staying in the mid/upper 70s where rain develops this
afternoon). There will be more of gradient of low temperatures
tonight than there has been the past few nights due to the stalled
front across the area. College Station area up through the Piney
Woods will drop into the low 60s, while the coast will remain in
the low to mid 70s. Temperatures increase a few degrees Monday
night into Tuesday as that boundary become diffuse/lifts
northwards.

Fowler

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 232 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

The Tuesday-Friday mid/upper flow pattern will be somewhat zonal
with disturbances embedded in the flow. Meanwhile, deep LL south
to southeast flow will keep the lower atmosphere relatively humid
and warm. This will result in daily shower/thunderstorm chances as
these disturbances provide lift in the moisture rich SE Texas
atmosphere. Worth mentioning that these disturbances may provide
brief windows of higher vertical wind shear, which could set the
stage for a few heavier/stronger thunderstorms. The primary
concern will be locally heavy rainfall. That being said, SE TX has
been quite dry lately. Therefore, we could use the rain.

As mentioned, the low levels will be warm and humid. Afternoon
highs are expected to average in the low/mid 80s with lows in
the mid 60s to low 70s. Though heat index values may technically
approach 90 degrees, the southeasterly breeze from the Gulf will
probably take a bite out of the heat. So for SE Texas standards, I
wouldn`t call this week summerlike. But definitely a warm spring
week.

Self

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 605 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

Conditions are borderline VFR and MVFR this morning with CIGs
bouncing between 2500ft and 4000ft, which will continue through
the remainder of today. A weak front will be moving into the area
later today with breezy southerly winds (sustained 10-15kt, gusts
to 25kt) persisting out ahead of it. Scattered showers will also
be possible through the morning as the southerly winds bring
increased moisture. Isolated thunderstorms will begin to pop up
this afternoon as the front moves into the region, mainly north
of IAH, and slowly move towards the coast through the night. This
front will stall out somewhere within the region this evening, but
guidance is highly uncertain on exactly where that is: could be
just north of I-10 or down along the coast. Winds become variable
to northerly as the front moves through. Coverage of the
thunderstorms will be limited and there is uncertainty on the
timing/location of the front, so have kept TS within PROB30s for
the sites today. However, the storms that do form could produce
gusty winds and hail. The chance of scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms will persist through Monday afternoon with daily
rain chances through most of the week.

Fowler

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 232 AM CDT Sun Apr 20 2025

Recent moderate winds and hazardous seas are expected to begin
gradually decreasing Sunday and continue decreasing into Monday.
However, there will also be an increasing chance of showers and
thunderstorms, especially by tonight into Monday.  Shower and
thunderstorm chances will continue into next week as increased
Gulf moisture interacts with a series of upper level disturbances.
Onshore winds and seas are expected to increase by the middle of
the week.

Self

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  81  62  84  66 /  60  30  20  10
Houston (IAH)  85  68  82  70 /  60  70  60  20
Galveston (GLS)  81  73  79  73 /  40  40  50  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for GMZ330-335-
     350-355.

     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Monday for GMZ370-375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Fowler
LONG TERM....Self
AVIATION...Fowler
MARINE...Self