219
FXUS64 KHGX 230603
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1203 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 212 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

A coastal low pressure area will bring gusty coastal winds and
periodic  showers to southeast Texas through Sunday morning. A
few thunderstorms are expected across primarily southeast areas of
southeast Texas and also offshore. The showers and storms should
move offshore and east of the area by late Sunday morning.

Temperatures will not change much from this afternoon through
Sunday  morning with cloud cover and continued northerly winds.
Temps have warmed into the 40s areawide this afternoon and will
fall a few degrees overnight. We will see cloud cover decrease
from west to east during the afternoon hours on sunday, so will
see warmer max temps on Sunday with some afternoon sunshine. Highs
will reach the mid/upper 50s areawide.

Wood

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 212 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

We started out the month with above normal temperatures...and
we`re going to close out the month with above normal
temperatures. Drier air filters into the region in the wake of the
coastal low with PW values between 0.3-0.4" on Monday. While this
is occuring, temperatures at 850mb will begin to approach the
90th percentile. With onshore flow returning by Monday night and
prevailing through midweek, this sets us up for another period of
springlike temperatures with highs reaching back into the 70s
areawide on Tuesday and Wednesday. At least temperatures in the
overnight hours will still be cool with lows in the 40s/50s.

One of the downsides of this springlike pattern is that water
temperatures in the bays and nearshore Gulf waters have cooled down
into the upper 40s/low 50s...and we`ll see warmer/moister air advect
over these waters early next week. This means that the potential for
sea fog will return...at least until a weak cold front pushes
offshore Wednesday night/Thursday morning. There remains some
discrepancy on the exact timing, but there is good agreement on the
bulk of the colder air remaining well to our north and east. There
is also some discrepancy on how much moisture will converge along
the frontal boundary as well...rain chances are very low during
FROPA but not zero. This front will only be good enough to knock our
daytime temperatures into the upper 60s/low 70s and overnight
temperatures solidly into the 40s on Thursday. Onshore flow quickly
takes back over on Friday leading to yet another warming trend going
into next weekend.

Perhaps our best chance of rain comes over the weekend as an upper
level low tracks across the southwestern CONUS into the Southern
Plains. It`s a bit too early to get too into the details, but as of
right now it looks like Sunday could be the rainier of the two
weekend days.

Batiste

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1139 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

IFR conditions with intermittent showers will continue over the
next several hours as a low pressure system continues to advance
towards the area. Rainfall coverage will expand after 09Z, with
some embedded thunderstorms developing in the early morning hours
(higher chances near the coast). Rainfall coverage will taper off
by late morning, with cigs lifting to MVFR levels through the
afternoon and early evening. IFR cigs, along with the potential
for some fog, will develop tomorrow night. Light N/NE winds to
remain in place through the duration of the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 212 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

As a coastal low continues to drift towards the Upper TX coastal
waters, winds and seas will continue to remain elevated. As a
result, a Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the Gulf waters
through Sunday afternoon and through tonight for Matagorda Bay.
Caution flags remain up for Galveston Bay through Sunday afternoon.
These caution flags and/or advisories will likely be extended into
Sunday night as winds and seas take some time to subside after the
coastal low departs to the east. Widespread showers with embedded
thunderstorms are expected through Sunday afternoon. Moderate
northeast winds today will gradually transition to north flow on
Sunday and into Monday in the wake of the low. This onshore flow may
eventually result in the development of sea fog in the southern bays
and coastal Gulf waters as early as Monday night/Tuesday morning.
This potential lasts until a cold front pushes offshore by Thursday
morning.

Batiste

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  38  57  38  69 /  50  30   0   0
Houston (IAH)  40  55  42  68 /  80  60   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  45  55  47  61 /  90  90   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CST Sunday for GMZ330.

     Small Craft Should Exercise Caution from 4 AM CST Sunday through
     Sunday afternoon for GMZ330.

     Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through Sunday afternoon for
     GMZ335.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CST Sunday for GMZ350-355-370-
     375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wood
LONG TERM....Batiste
AVIATION...Cady
MARINE...Batiste