040
FXUS64 KHGX 121208
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
608 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 601 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025

Storms have thus far struggled to develop any strength in this
low-CAPE, high shear environment. Despite low-level helicity and
effective shear being quite favorable, SB instability has remained
nearly negligible over the course of the evening which has
largely inhibited updraft strength. As a result, storm coverage
and intensity underperformed compared to short-term guidance from
the past 12-18 hours. We`re not quite out of the woods yet as
diurnal heating could drive the development of a few stronger
storms as the line approaches the coast later this morning.
However, it appears that the threat for severe storms remains
marginal at best.

Have also made some slight adjustments to the temperature forecast
given the slightly faster progression of the front and thus
additional time for cold advection. This is mostly reflected in a
slight reduction in Maximum/hourly temperatures today in the
northern zones.

Cady

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1211 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025

A veritable smorgasbord of weather is ahead of us with a
progressive pattern. This does include a couple opportunities for
strong to severe storms, but also freezing temps for the northern
part of the area. The highlights:

- A marginal risk for severe weather (threat level 1 of 5) exists
  as storms developing to our west are expected to move through
  overnight. Damaging wind gusts are the primary threat, but a
  brief tornado or two are a potential threat as well. Storms are
  expected to move into the area after midnight, and currently
  expected to move through the Houston metro in the 3-6 am
  timeframe.
- Another opportunity for stronger storms exists on Saturday,
  ahead of another, strong cold front. Though the best environment
  for severe weather and heavy rain currently appears to be
  northeast of the area, we are very close to it, and this
  potential threat deserves monitoring through the week.
- After the Saturday cold front, expect a couple cold, winter-like
  nights to return. Low temperatures in the 30s and 40s should be
  expected area-wide, with the best chance for freezing
  temperatures existing to the north of the Houston metro Monday
  night/Tuesday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 1124 PM CST Tue Feb 11 2025

The axis of a long wave deep layer trough over W CONUS will push
eastward in central CONUS today into Thursday. Within the
resulting strong SW flow aloft, a robust shortwave is swinging
across the Lone Star State, bringing ample lift to an atmosphere
rich in moisture. Closer to the surface, an area of low pressure
is expected to develop just north of our CWA before moving east-
northeastward. Its trailing cold front will push southward
through SE Texas by this afternoon. This set up is bringing
scattered to widespread shower and thunderstorm activity across
Southeast Texas this morning. The primary concern is heavy
rainfall and localized flooding, making the morning commute
treacherous. A few thunderstorms could be strong, resulting in
locally damaging wind gusts.

The temperature forecast today is a bit of an nightmare for a
meteorologist. Do we get any sun during the afternoon? Are recent
hi-res model trends on to something showing robust CAA and
continued cloud cover into the afternoon. We do have a ~1035MB sfc
high pushing southward across the plains, supporting strong CAA
behind the front. It`s not unusual for global models to
underestimate LL CAA. Our current forecast has highs ranging from
the low/mid 60s in our northern counties to low/mid 70s in our
southern / coastal counties. If the global models have their way,
my forecast is about 5-7 degrees too cold. If hi-res model trends
have their way, my forecast could be 10 degrees too warm! So once
we`re done with this mornings storms, the focus will turn to these
unruly temperatures.

Despite the uncertainty in the day time temperatures, confidence
is much higher that robust CAA sets up Wednesday night, resulting
in breezy and much colder conditions. Lows in our northern
counties are forecast to drop into the 30s, with 40s most
elsewhere. This should be followed by a chilly, breezy Thursday
with highs mostly in the 50s. Areas near the coast could have wind
gusts over 30 MPH on Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 1211 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025

To open the long term, we`ll find ourselves with the subtropical
ridge aloft shoved off towards the Bahamas, while we remain under
southwesterly flow at the mid-levels. This does back slightly at
lower levels, providing onshore flow at 850, and with winds even
backing to be more out of the ESE at the surface in response to
the development of a coastal trough. Advection of warmer, more
humid air will help boost temps, with forecast highs only far
inland failing to reach 60, and highs pushing 70 at the coast.
The boost in temps should be mitigated somewhat by this inflow
undergoing at least some modest lift off the Gulf resulting in
cloud cover, and even some 20-30 percent chance of rain, mainly
closer to the coast.

Where the onshore flow really makes itself felt will be Friday
night, with overnight lows looking distressingly similar to
Thursday`s forecast highs! Indeed, the Extreme Forecast Index
shows subtle signals for high-end temps (0.5 to 0.6 on a scale of
0 to 1) Friday night. This trend carries into Saturday, with
similar EFI indicators for high temps that day (even exceeding 0.7
around Galveston Bay), and so I push Saturday highs into the 70s
area-wide, and even to around 80 degrees around Matagorda Bay. In
both cases, I`m choosing to lean more towards the NBM median,
rather than the post-processed "deterministic" temperatures here.
There is a chance that I`m even being too conservative on
Saturday, but there is still time to bump those up more if needed.

Why am I still getting a bit conservative on those highs? Well,
we`ve got expectations of a pretty decent front Saturday evening
moving through. The timing on this front is going to be critical
for the forecast Saturday and Saturday night. If that front shows
up early, we`ll have clouds, storms, and ultimately and wind shift
and incoming post-frontal airmass to chop temps down. But if
everything is slow enough to allow us to get into peak heating, I
still may not be warm enough! This modest hedge above NBM seems
like a good compromise for now.

Speaking of this front and storm potential along it, we`re also
going to have to watch for potential of getting severe storms
and/or excessive rain as well. Like temperatures, the ceiling for
this event will likely depend on specific timing that we just
can`t be super confident about. But if I pretend my forecast
tonight is perfect, we could be looking at a round of strong to
potentially severe storms ahead of/along the front late Saturday
afternoon into Saturday evening, especially east of I-45. That
said, we`re likely to be on the fringe of the most significant
activity as the best dynamics appear to be displaced to our
northeast, and the main low driving the front should be over the
Ohio Valley. This, of course, relies on the current forecast being
perfect. We`re near enough to favorable conditions for severe
weather that we`ll want to track the evolution of this forecast in
the coming days.

Behind the front, we get a subtle reminder that we are still
technically in winter, after all! Not like...frozen precip
winter, but do look for a chill to start the new week. Lows to
around freezing will start to invade our far north (Caldwell,
Crockett, etc) Sunday night/Monday morning, but a colder night
awaits Monday night into Tuesday morning once high pressure
settles in, giving us calmer winds, a clearer sky, and a good
radiational cooling setup. For now, it still appears that the
Houston metro remains above freezing, while lows at 32 or lower
fill in north of the metro and in some rural areas out west. But a
chilly night is in the cards across the area, as I have even
Galveston getting into the lower half of the 40s that night.

The rollercoaster continues deeper into the week. Onshore flow
returns Monday, giving us a short warmer trend that last all the
way until another front arrives Tuesday night or Wednesday.
There`ll be more chill to talk about after that, but for now it
lies beyond the forecast period. But as a bit of a spoiler, the
CPC 6-10 day outlook shows decently high confidence (60-70
percent odds) of below normal temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 601 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025

IFR/LIFR conditions remain in place area-wide as we approach
sunrise. Scattered showers and storms continue to prevail across
the Houston Metro, despite lower storm coverage than previously
anticipated. With daytime heating, we should see the re-emergence
of a more organized line of storms between roughly 15-21Z today. A
few embedded storms could become stronger and produce brief
elevated wind gusts. Surface winds will shift to the north later
today behind a departing cold front, with sustained winds of 10-15
knots overnight and up to 15-20 knots tomorrow. IFR cigs will
gradually diminish with the arrival of drier air today, with VFR
conditions returning this evening as cloud decks scatter out.

Cady

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1211 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025

A very active weather period is beginning currently. Despite the
return of more humid air, visibility has stayed good over the
waters so this evening. Eventually some patchy fog may yet develop
overnight, though not as widespread or as dense as seen during
this long, foggy stretch. In addition, we will be monitoring the
potential for some strong storms late tonight into early
Wednesday morning ahead of a cold front. That front is expected
to push off the coast Wednesday evening, fully putting an end to
the fog and storm threats. Winds will shift to the north and
northeast, increasing to 20 to 30 knots overnight. This may cause
a need to be on the lookout for low water levels in the bays, and
small Craft Advisories will likely be required through at least
Thursday and potentially into a portion of the day Friday.
Unsettled weather conditions will continue into the weekend with a
warm front Friday night followed by an even stronger front
Saturday night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  64  35  50  41 /  40   0  10   0
Houston (IAH)  71  44  56  45 /  80   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  69  49  58  52 /  50   0   0  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Self
LONG TERM....Luchs
AVIATION...Cady
MARINE...Luchs