Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
467 FXUS64 KHGX 030509 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1209 AM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1209 AM CDT Sun Aug 2 2025 - Seasonably hot and humid conditions along with daily rounds of isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms carry through the early portions of the new week. - Look for a hotter and modestly drier stretch in the middle of the week - at this time it appears dry enough to keep heat index values from reaching advisory thresholds, but stay tuned for the latest forecast info over the next few days. - This hotter stretch does appear fairly short-lived, with conditions backing down to more seasonable levels in the late week. However, this is still the hottest time of the year, and those vulnerable to heat or will be working strenuously outdoors should keep heat safety at the front of mind this week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1209 AM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025 Saturday provided some rain across large swaths of Southeast Texas, though for most rainfall amounts were not terribly significant - less than half an inch. Some, however, say much more rainfall, with radar estimates reaching over 5 inches at their highest, northeast of Lake Livingston. The winners for rain totals will generally northeast of the Houston metro, and in some spots west of the metro as well. Going forward, daily opportunities for rain and storms will continue. We should, however, generally back down to a pattern more familiar to the typical summery seabreeze cycle, particularly after Monday when a weak front completely washes out of the picture. Helping out in this will be precipitable water values coming back to more typical levels after reaching the 90th percentile for this time of year. This is only a modest decrease, though, with ensemble mean PWATs only backing down to around 1.75 inches. So, while Saturday should safely be the rainiest day in general, any of the next several days could be the rainiest one for you specifically, depending on how the scattered convection shakes out. I will say though, that for those farther inland, Sunday and Monday (particularly Monday, per model guidance) will have better odds for rain as the dissipating boundary meanders about the area. After that, focus would shift more towards coastal areas as the seabreeze becomes the primary initiation mechanism. The next interesting thing to watch for will be a return of the heat towards midweek. I opted to hedge on the hotter side of NBM for high temps Tuesday-Thursday, as both NAEFS and EPS have mean 500 mb heights reaching the 97th or even 99th percentile...and we`re still in a relative weakness in the subtropical ridge in this time! Because of that, I don`t wipe out PoPs completely (though I do trim things pretty close to the seabreeze region), but I do expect we`ll be seeing more sun, and more heat. Heat index values will also be drifting upwards towards the advisory threshold of 108, so that will be something to mind as well. For now, my expectation is that as we getter hotter, but also modestly drier, the decrease in humidity will be enough to hold the heat index more in that 104-107 range. Stay tuned! && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 615 PM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025 Lingering showers and storms currently west of the Brazos River are expected to remain west of any terminals going into the evening hours. Due to the rainfall from today, patchy fog will be possible late tonight into Sunday morning. Around sunrise, a few terminals could see intermittent periods of MVFR ceilings...mainly between 10-14Z/Sunday. The other impact for the day will be isolated to scattered showers/storms during the afternoon hours. The highest confidence for this is south of I-10, but even then the coverage is expected to be rather sporadic which is why PROB30`s were included for HOU and southward. Can`t entirely rule out stray showers/storms occuring further north. Additionally, could see some convection develop near the coast during the mid to late morning hours as well. Expecting light and variable winds throughout the day (outside of any convective activity), but winds do become easterly to southeasterly around 5 kt by the late afternoon hours. Batiste && .MARINE... Issued at 1209 AM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025 Persistent low seas and generally light, but occasionally moderate winds driven by the daily seabreeze and landbreeze cycle will remain the rule into early next week. Expect daily opportunities for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms for the next several days as well. Stronger winds and rougher seas can occur in the vicinity of any thunderstorms. In some cases, thunderstorm winds can extend far from the associated storm. Later next week, winds may increase modestly, pushing seas more into a 2-3 foot range rather than less than two feet. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 74 94 76 93 / 10 10 10 40 Houston (IAH) 77 93 78 93 / 20 30 10 40 Galveston (GLS) 81 90 82 91 / 30 30 20 30 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Luchs AVIATION...Batiste MARINE...Luchs