365
FXUS64 KHGX 220523
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1223 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1209 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

- Showers/thunderstorms continue today, some capable of producing
  locally heavy rainfall possible.

- Rain chances lower over the weekend, but should rise again next
  week as another weak boundary approaches the area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1209 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

Another day of wetter conditions is on the tap today as a weak
surface boundary remains in the vicinity while a number of
shortwaves pass overhead. Combined with deep moisture and the slew
of mesoscale boundary interactions, SE Texas should see
conditions similar to that of yesterday. CAMs are showing greater
coverage with showers/storms this afternoon than in previous
runs, though it still may be a tad underdone. The environment
remains conducive for high precipitation efficiency, which may
result in some strong downpours and possibly locally heavy
rainfall at times. WPC still has SE Texas under a Marginal (level
1/4) Risk of Excessive rainfall for today, generally for areas
south of Huntsville and closer to the coast. Most areas should see
less than half an inch of rainfall, though any stronger storms
could produce locally higher totals up to 2-3" in some isolated
spots, much like what occurred yesterday.

Ridging over the Desert Southwest should strengthen over the
weekend. Saturday could still see some modest shower/storm coverage,
especially as models are now keeping deep moisture in place over SE
Texas a tad longer than previously forecast. CAMs may still be
underdoing activity during this period slightly, though most
showers/storms should be confined to the coastline/nearshore
waters. Still, PoPs trend downward throughout the course of the
weekend, with high temperatures gradually trending upwards. An
upper level low/trough over the Great Lakes/Quebec/Ontario is
progged to push another frontal boundary & round of shortwaves
towards SE Texas around the Tuesday/Wednesday next week. With
this, the forecast reverses course, trading heat for greater rain
chances through Thursday as this weak boundary stalls out over our
area.

03

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 627 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2025

A messy afternoon/early evening with scattered showers and
thunderstorms. A few of these storms are strong, capable of
producing small hail, gusty winds, and heavy downpours. This
activity will continue at some terminals through 02-03Z. The next
aviation concern arrives late this evening into the overnight.
Some Hi-res models bring a complex of storms moving NE to SW
across the area, impacting IAH, HOU and CXO terminals after 05Z
Friday. At the moment, the probability of occurrence remains low,
therefore, did not mention this activity in TAFs. Will continue to
monitor trends in the next few hours and amend accordingly.

Another round of showers and storms are possible on Friday with
the best chances in the afternoon. Given uncertainty in coverage
and timing, will continue with PROB30, mainly in the afternoon.

JM

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1209 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

Conditions will be fairly calm with 1-3 ft seas and seabreeze-
landbreeze driven winds around 5-10 knots (offshore/northwesterly
early in the morning, then onshore/southeasterly in the afternoon).
Isolated to scattered showers and storms will be a daily
possibility, primarily during the daytime hours. Coverage of
showers/storms should be greatest today and early this weekend
due to a weak boundary near the coast. Rain chances later
decrease over the weekend. Locally higher winds and seas are
expected near any thunderstorms that develop.

03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  73  93  72  96 /  20  20  10  10
Houston (IAH)  75  91  75  95 /  40  60  20  20
Galveston (GLS)  80  90  81  92 /  70  70  40  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...03
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...03