Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
541 FXUS64 KHGX 031104 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 604 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1207 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 - Scattered showers and storms are expected on Thursday with the best chances in the afternoon. - Hot and humid conditions with hazy skies are expected for the 4th of July and into the holiday weekend. - Heat index values up to 107F are expected this week and into the weekend. Remember to practice proper heat safety! && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1207 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 After a warm and muggy night with some regions seeing patchy fog (mostly low-lying fog), expect another hot and humid Thursday across southeast TX. Thursday will bring back precipitation chances in response to a shortwave trough embedded in the southwest flow aloft. The best timing for scattered activity is from mid morning through late afternoon due to the combination of upper-lvl forcing, sfc convergence and heating, and decent low to mid-level moisture. Based on latest Hi-Res models/CAMS, the greatest chances will be for areas west of I-45. The 4th of July is shaping up to be hot, humid and hazy as the region remains under the influence of the ridge. Highs will climb in the low to mid 90s, with peak heat index values reaching up to 107 F. Temperatures in the evening won`t cool off much. It will generally remain in the 80s, with heat indices up to 94F. Remember to practice heat safety when outdoors! Always stay hydrated (drink plenty of water), take frequent breaks from the heat, wear comfortable, light-colored clothes and please, don`t forget to check on kids, the elderly and pets. Another hot and relatively dry day is anticipated for Saturday. Beyond Sunday, ridging aloft shifts westward, giving way to a parade of shortwaves aloft moving across the region. At the surface, a coastal trough is progged to develop across the northwestern Gulf/upper TX coast. These features will be enough to support increasing rain/storm chances for portions of the region at least through Monday. Looking further ahead, surface high pressure builds again across the Gulf, bringing a drier airmass through at least Thursday. However, a daily risk of isolated to scattered afternoon showers/storms continues each day. We`ll have a break from the Saharan dust on Thursday. But it won`t last long as another plume of dust is on its way, arriving by Friday. Hazy skies will prevail through at least Sunday, before another plume arrives later next week. JM && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 547 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 Weak showers are currently moving in across the north/norteast early today, and may bring light rain at times thoughout the morning. Anothers cluster of showers/storms should develop west of the city towards central/southern Texas during the afternoon. A few thunderstorms could develop during this period, though coverage and confidence remains too low still to warrant a mention in the TAFs. Rain chances taper off in the evening with light southerly winds prevailing overnight. Isolated patchy fog will be possible Friday morning. Otherwise, VFR conditions will dominate the TAF period. 03 && .MARINE... Issued at 1207 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025 Light south to southeast winds and low seas continue across the Upper TX coast as the surface high remains in control to the east. Rain and storm chances remain low for the rest of the week; though an isolated shower/storm or two cannot be ruled out. Another round of Saharan dust will arrive on Friday, persisting into the weekend. This will result in hazy skies. The next best chance for showers and storms arrives after Sunday as a weak disturbance moves across the northwestern Gulf. Rain chances will be on the increase during the upcoming week over the coastal waters. Overall, light to occasional moderate onshore winds and seas will persist over the next 7 days. Beach conditions: Use caution heading to the beach as a moderate risk of rip currents along all Gulf-facing beaches continues through early Saturday. Always swim near a lifeguard and avoid swimming near piers and jetties. JM && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 92 75 92 75 / 40 20 10 0 Houston (IAH) 95 78 93 77 / 30 10 20 0 Galveston (GLS) 89 82 90 82 / 20 10 10 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JM AVIATION...03 MARINE...JM