059
FXUS64 KHGX 231720
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1120 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 356 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025

We`re fully in the expected soggy weekend, but we should begin to
dry out later this afternoon. This will set us up for a week that
is generally fair and warm across the area, but we will be keeping
an eye out for potential sea fog trouble at the coast. The
highlights tonight:
- Rain chances will taper off through the day from west to east,
  becoming dry across the area this afternoon. The next chance for
  rain after today will not be until next weekend at the earliest.
- Rough marine conditions also persist, and a small craft
  advisory is in place through this afternoon and may need an
  extension for at least a portion of the coastal waters.
- Temperatures continue to rise through the week, with widespread
  highs reaching up into the middle to upper 70s on Wednesday. A
  cold front Wednesday night will cool things down a bit, but only
  back to around seasonal averages on Thursday, after which a new
  gradual warming trend begins again.
- At the coast, bay and Gulf waters are still relatively cold. As
  onshore flow returns and warmer, humid air moves over those
  waters, we`ll be watching for potential sea fog. Tuesday and
  Wednesday look like the most likely days for at least some
  patchy fog formation.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday Night)
Issued at 356 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025

The coastal low that plagued Saturday with rain and a few
thunderstorms will pull away from our region today. However, we will
continue to feel the influence of the low for one more day. Waves of
showers continue to impact SE Texas, especially near the coast as I
type this AFD (~3AM CST). Showers and isolated thunderstorms will
continue this morning. The highest coverage will be early in the
morning near the coast. Rain chances lower as the low pulls away.
The afternoon is expected to be mostly dry, though a few showers
could still linger at the coast and over our eastern counties. The
temperature forecast is a bit tricky for this afternoon and will be
100% dependent on cloud cover. We are generally predicting highs in
the low/mid 50s. But a little more sun could push some areas closer
to 60 (more likely in western counties) while a thicker overcast and
more resilient rainfall coverage could keep some locations below 50
degrees (more likely in eastern counties). Fog is possible tonight,
especially if cloud cover decreases further. Expect lows tonight to
generally be in the 40s.

Monday is expected to feature more sunshine. And with more sun comes
warmer temperatures. We could still have some overcast during the
first half of the day. Afternoon highs are expected to be in the
mid/upper 60s. Coastal areas expected to hold in the low 60s. A few
inland spots could make a run for 70 degrees. This will be the
beginning of a warmer pattern. But most of that pattern is in the
long term`s jurisdiction. So I`ll let your long term forecaster take
it away from here.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 356 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025

There is...not a lot of excitement to be found in this portion of
the forecast tonight. The Euro ensemble`s Extreme Forecast Index -
nada, not a hint of any very anomalous/"extreme" weather (that`s
the model definition of extreme, not the more colloquial use of
the term, not that it really matters here). The NAEFS and Euro
means are virtually entirely within the 10th/90th percentiles as
well, indicating relatively average conditions for the end of
February. The lone exception is that precipitable water does fall
to the 10th percentile for the coastward half of the area or so in
both ensemble systems, so rain seems quite unlikely and humidity
may be unseasonably low (though the latter is not necessarily a
1:1 correlations with PWAT). By and large, the NBM deterministic
output is probably likely to handle most things well here.

Of course, most things are not all things. I paid extra attention
to the conditions leading up to, through, and after a frontal
passage Wednesday night, and sharpened up that transition in
conditions. The NBM median seemed to handle pre-frontal warmth a
little better, and used a blend of long-term guidance to dry
things out behind the front a little more. With PWAT still around
or a little over three-quarters of an inch, I`ve kept out any
mention of rain with the front, though my PoPs are still in the
5-10 percent range, so they`re not zero. Just...basically zero.

When it comes to the frontal passage, there`s still pretty good
agreement amongst the models. Like last night, all four clusters
in the LREF cluster analysis seem to point more towards timing on
the front being the main source of uncertainty rather than
intensity. And even there, the differences are small. The early
fropa is more Wednesday evening, while the latest one is very
early Thursday morning...like pre-dawn early. So, again, really
just more indication that the best moves here are mostly to
sharpen the features in the NBM than look for any wholesale
changes.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1111 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025

Vis sat imagery shows some clearing beginning to work into
extreme NW areas of SE Texas, so CLL is likely to lose the MVFR
ceiling in an hour or two. Elsewhere, IFR ceilings look to hang
on for alot of the aft with MVFR ceilings then likely to persist
for awhile late aft and into the eve. Ceilings are expected to
fall to IFR/LIFR late tonight and continue into the morning hours.
Also expect BR/FG to develop areawide with light winds late
tonight and early tomorrow. Should see rapid improvement tomorrow
in the 15z to 18z time frame with some heating/mixing occurring
allowing skies to clear and vsbys to improve as well.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 356 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025

A small craft advisory persists early this morning along with
numerous showers and a few embedded thunderstorms as a coastal
low passes by offshore. Here at its closest approach, we`re
actually getting a bit of a lull in the winds just below the
advisory threshold, but all expectations are for a slight bump in
winds as the low pulls away, before a long term diminishing of
winds in the new week. Light onshore flow resumes late Monday. The
main forecast concern will likely be the potential for sea fog,
particularly around the middle of the week until the next cold
front passes through later in the week. While the setup looks
generally supportive of at least some fog, we`ll continue to
evaluate the interplay of moisture, water temperatures, and winds
that modulate how severe a sea fog event may get.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  56  40  68  44 /  30   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  53  43  67  46 /  40   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  54  49  61  53 /  90   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 3 PM CST this
     afternoon for GMZ330-335.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for GMZ350-
     355-370-375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Self
LONG TERM....Luchs
AVIATION...Wood
MARINE...Luchs