364
FXUS64 KHGX 052358
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
658 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1159 AM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

- Isolated showers and storms will be possible along the coast and
  in the Gulf waters through the next several days.

- Small craft will need to exercise caution through this evening
  in the Gulf waters for easterly winds of 15-20kt and seas
  between 3-5ft.

- Beachgoers should also be aware that there is an increased risk
  for rip currents today. Increasing swells and winds may lead to
  minor coastal flooding at times of high tide this afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1159 AM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

We will be in a rather benign weather pattern for much of this
week. A building upper level ridge will bring us a mostly rain-
free week, but daytime heating and increased moisture will lead to
some isolated afternoon showers (and maybe a thunderstorm or two)
along the coast. Guidance has been showing that a weak, dry
boundary may try to approach/move through the area mid to late
week. Details are fuzzy on this boundary as guidance struggles to
pinpoint on a timeframe (some runs have it coming through as early
as Thursday, and other runs not until the weekend), but the most
likely impacts we`d feel from this week FROPA is a brief period of
dry northerly winds. Afternoon high temperatures through this
week will generally be in the upper 80s to mid-90s with Tuesday
and Wednesday likely the warmest days of the week. Overnight lows
will be in the low to mid 70s through Wednesday, but could see
some slightly cooler overnight lows once that weak boundary ushers
in some drier air.

The high risk of strong rip currents continues today, and it may
continue into tomorrow depending on how quickly the onshore winds
weaken. High tide at Galveston Bay Entrance got to around 4.2ft
above Mean Low Low Water early this morning. While the afternoon
high tide cycle is expected to be lower today (up to around
3.4-3.7ft), there may be some lingering minor coastal flooding
due to the elevated water levels and wave runup. Tide cycles
tonight into Monday will be closer to normal. Here are a couple
impacts we have seen during previous minor coastal flooding events
with similar conditions:
 - When water levels reach 3.7ft above MLLW, water may begin to
   reach Highway 87 at Highway 124 on Bolivar Peninsula, and on
   Beach Drive near Blue Water Highway in Surfside.

Fowler

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 654 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

VFR conditions for much of the forecast period. E winds at 5-10
KTS through early tonight, then becoming light and VRB overnight
into Mon morning. E-ESE winds strengthen to 5-10 KTS Mon
afternoon. Iso -SHRA/TSRA is possible on Mon, although low chance,
mainly over areas along and south of I-10.

Cotto

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1159 AM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

Small craft should continue to exercise caution through this
evening as easterly flow of 15-20kt with occasionally higher gusts
and seas of 4-6ft continue. The persistent onshore flow will lead
to elevated water levels, up to around 3.4-3.7ft above MLLW this
afternoon.

Light winds and low seas are expected to return tonight and
persist through at least Wednesday. A weak boundary may slide
through the coastal waters mid to late week which would bring a
return of moderate northeasterly winds to the region. There is
high uncertainty on when, or even if, this boundary would slide
through the waters, but could be as early as Wednesday night.

Isolated showers and storms will be possible through the next
several days.

Fowler

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  68  91  70  93 /   0  10  10  20
Houston (IAH)  72  91  74  93 /  10  20  10  20
Galveston (GLS)  77  86  79  87 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for
     TXZ436>439.

     High Rip Current Risk until 1 AM CDT Monday for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 7 PM CDT this evening
     for GMZ350-355-370-375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Fowler
AVIATION...Cotto
MARINE...Fowler