738
FXUS64 KHGX 090547
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1247 AM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1245 AM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

- Drier airmass will bring even lower humidities and cooler overnight
  lows to the region for the last part of the work week into the
  weekend.

- Hazardous marine conditions are expected at times for the next
  couple of days including the potential for some minor coastal flooding.

- Elevated fire weather danger conditions exist due to dry fuels
  and low RH`s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1245 AM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

Can`t add a whole lot of value to what`s already been said the past
several days as the forecast trends and reasoning remains largely
unchanged. An even drier airmass will begin backdooring into the
region late in the day and overnight as broad, strong surface
ridging centered over the Great Lakes expands southward. This
airmass will bring some elevated fire weather and marine issues (see
sections below). The main impact most folks will recognize however
is noticeably cooler nighttime and morning temperatures for the
remainder of the work week and into the weekend. Daytime highs may
be a few degrees cooler, but still above seasonable norms.

In the mid and upper levels, strong ridging isn`t going anywhere
anytime soon...likely being the primary weather player locally well
into the middle next week...keeping rain chances close to zero...and
allowing for above normal temps. (Onshore flow resumes late Saturday
which will bring a return of gradually warmer overnight temps too
into early next week). 47

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 621 PM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025

Current SHRA activity will diminish this evening. Winds become
light this evening. Mostly VFR conditions through the TAF period.
Could be some patchy fog in our coastal counties ahead of an
approaching front. Winds pick up from the northeast during the
morning hours, generally averaging 10 to 15 knots with
occasionally higher gusts. Winds expected to be higher at the
coast.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1245 AM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

Look for east northeast winds to increase heading into sunrise as
the pressure gradient tightens. Caution flags are already out for
the bays and Advisory flags for the Gulf Waters as winds/seas climb.
We will probably see somewhat elevated winds into early
afternoon...followed by somewhat a decrease in the late afternoon
and early evening. Speeds will again increase tonight into Friday.

Water levels will be running above normal due to the winds, seas,
and moon phase. Model data suggests levels will peak fairly close
to Coastal Flood Advisory criteria during high tide cycles the
next 3 days. I`m going to give the day shift one last look at the
latest wind/wave/model trends and determine whether to issue and
Advisory or cover it with a Beach Hazards Statement. One way or
the other, folks along the coast will see some wave run up along
area beaches and close to some of lower lying roads between the
Bolivar Peninsula and Surfside. The risk of rip currents will
also trend upward late in the day through Friday.

Improved marine conditions are anticipated as we make our way
through the weekend. Seas will subside and a light onshore flow
resumes Saturday night...persisting well into next week. 47

Marine conditions will gradually improve late Friday through the
weekend. A more predominant onshore flow resumes Saturday night and
Sunday.  47

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1245 AM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

An even drier airmass will begin filtering into the region later
today and tonight. Combined with dry fuels, 7-12 mph winds with some
higher gusts, and lowering humidities (35-50% today and 20-40%
Friday)...elevated fire weather conditions are anticipated. Though
wind speeds should be below Red Flag Warning criteria, the Texas A&M
Forest Service is forecasting moderate to extreme fire danger for a
good part of Southeast Texas. Use caution with any outdoor
burning...and obey burn bans currently in effect. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  93  64  91  61 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  93  67  91  64 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  88  74  87  73 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution early this morning
     through this afternoon for GMZ330-335.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT Friday for GMZ350-355-370-
     375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...47
AVIATION...Self
MARINE...47