Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
913 FXUS64 KHGX 020500 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1200 AM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1200 AM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025 - Rain chances will be boosted by the presence of a weak front drifting in from the north. The strongest storms will be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall. A marginal risk of excessive rainfall (threat level 1 of 4) is in place Saturday across Southeast Texas. - Daily rounds of showers and storms will stick with us into the new week, generally focusing around the seabreeze. - Seasonably hot/humid conditions will also carry with us into next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1200 AM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025 We`re now in August and summer just keeps on summering around Southeast Texas. That said, this weekend will be...just a little bit different. There is a weak front...ostensibly a cold front, though there isn`t really a cold airmass ready to push in behind it, but moving too much to be a full-out stationary front. Regardless, it is currently a focus for rains primarily (but not entirely) north of our area, and we`ll see a better opportunity for storm coverage through the day and early evening Saturday with as the front blobs on down and precipitable water rises to reach or just exceed two inches...roughly the 90th percentile PWAT for this time of year. With a boundary near/in the area, slow-moving storms, and ample moisture, we`ll have a marginal risk for excessive rain and localized flooding concerns with the day/evening`s storms. Fortunately, despite all of the above, individual storms don`t seem likely to be excessively long-lived, and though slow-moving, I don`t anticipate a whole lot of training either, so that mitigates the threat somewhat. But for the strongest storms of the day, should they do their thing over a vulnerable spot, we could definitely see a couple/few inches rack up pretty quickly, and cause concerns in that spot. For Sunday and into next week, everything just kind of settles back towards what we`d call a typical summertime pattern. Not the hot and dry one we just had, but the one that tends to be not quite as hot (but still hot, as it is the hottest time of the year here) along with increased cloudiness and isolated to scattered showers and storms each day. Through Monday or so, this potential should be more broadly across Southeast Texas as the front...or what`s left of it...meanders about the area before washing out. Later in the week, storm potential should weight a little more towards the coast, as the seabreeze will return to being the dominant focus for storm development. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 512 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025 Scattered showers/storms are currently just north of the Brazos Valley and could approach CLL/UTS over the next few hours. Reduced visibilities in the rainfall and gusty winds will be possible near these storms. Elsewhere, VFR conditions and light/variable winds will prevail into Saturday. Winds will start out light and northwesterly and gradually become southerly by the late afternoon. The main impact though will be a broken line of convection moving from north to south during the afternoon hours. Gusty winds and heavy rain will be possible in and near these storms as well. These storms could last beyond the current TAF period into Saturday evening, especially for terminals south of I-10 as they continue to push southward towards the coast. Batiste && .MARINE... Issued at 1200 AM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025 Persistent low seas and generally light, but occasionally moderate winds driven by the daily seabreeze and landbreeze cycle will continue to prevail. Expect daily opportunities for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms into the new week. Stronger winds and rougher seas can occur in the vicinity of the thunderstorms. In some cases, thunderstorm winds can extend far from the associated storm. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 77 95 75 96 / 20 40 20 10 Houston (IAH) 80 95 77 94 / 20 50 40 50 Galveston (GLS) 83 91 81 89 / 20 40 50 50 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Luchs AVIATION...Batiste MARINE...Luchs