Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
313 FXUS64 KHGX 060444 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1144 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025 ...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1138 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025 - Rain and storm chances return today and into early next week as moisture increases along and ahead of a frontal boundary. - Locally heavy rain and strong storms will be possible, particularly on Sunday. - Drier and hot days are expected next week, except along the coast where rain chances continue through most of the week. - Comfortable nights are expected late this weekend into the middle of next week as a drier airmass filters in from the northwest. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1138 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025 Latest satellite imagery shows a plume of increasing moisture arriving across the state from the west. In fact, PWs have increased into the 1.5 to 1.9 inch range in the past hours across our northern areas. The main weather makers will be a series of shortwaves embedded in the west to northwest flow aloft and increasing surface convergence due to a frontal boundary currently draped across north- central Texas. These disturbances combined with the increasing moisture and instability will bring scattered thunderstorms to the region today through early next week. For today, expect some scattered activity to develop, particularly across the northern portion of the area as the frontal boundary slowly approaches. Initially, a drier mid-level layer around 700mb may lead to some virga. However, as the day progresses, this will be reinforced by more moisture and instability, especially along the sea/baybreeze in the afternoon. Isolated to scattered activity will continue Saturday night into Sunday, primarily along the frontal as it stalls or slowly moves towards the coast. The risk of locally heavy rainfall increases on Sunday as PW values are forecast to reach the 2.0 to 2.3 inch range. This, coupled with steep low to mid level lapse rates and a building MUCAPE will create a favorable environment for stronger storms. Therefore, expect scattered thunderstorms with a few of them potentially being strong. While not everyone will see rain, the coverage will be more widespread, so monitor the forecast closely and have a Plan B for any outdoor activities. Lingering showers and storms may persist on Monday before a drier airmass completely filters in across SE TX early next week. This will be the case for most of the region; however, rain chances will still continue along the coast and coastal waters as the boundary potentially stalls through most of the week. The good news is that northwest drier flow will bring comfortable nights with lows in the 60s and 70s through the week. JM && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 621 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025 Light winds and VFR conditions prevail this evening and overnight. Heading into the early morning hours of Saturday, MVFR CIGS/isolated patchy fog may briefly set across our northern terminals (KCLL/KUTS/KCXO). A weak frontal boundary is expected to enter the area on Saturday, bringing a north/northeast wind shift. A few showers/storms cannot be ruled out, though PoPs are fairly low. Rain chances will be highest Saturday afternoon near the coast, where the weak frontal boundary may collide with the sea breeze to produce showers/storms. Any showers that do form should taper off Saturday evening. 03 && .MARINE... Issued at 1138 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025 Increasing rain and storm chances are expected over the weekend and into next week ahead of a cold front. This frontal boundary is expected to move across Southeast TX later today, making it to the coast this evening/overnight. Sunday will bring the highest potential for scattered thunderstorms, some of them with locally heavy rain. This FROPA will stall along the coast or just offshore early next week; therefore, rain chances will continue over the coastal waters. Drier conditions are expected inland. Winds will become moderate at times, especially Sunday and Monday. Building seas are also expected with wave heights up to 4 ft possible. JM && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 85 88 72 85 / 0 30 30 60 Houston (IAH) 85 93 75 87 / 0 30 40 60 Galveston (GLS) 85 90 78 88 / 0 20 40 60 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JM AVIATION...03 MARINE...JM