Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
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084 FXUS64 KHGX 081738 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1138 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday Night) Issued at 357 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024 Warmer than normal temperatures will continue today with highs in the 80s area wide. A weak cold front, coupled with rain along and ahead of the front will help to bring temperatures down into the 70s for inland areas to near 80 across coastal locations on Saturday. Lows for tonight and Saturday night will be in the 60s for much of the area. Locations in the Piney Woods and Brazos Valley could dip into the upper 50s. Diving more into the rain chances...a weak surface cold front in association with an upper level trough will result in increased rain chances today and Saturday. A strong subtropical jet, with relatively strong winds through the mid-levels continues to draw in moisture from the Pacific and across Mexico into Texas. This can be seen on WV imagery from GOES-16. Moisture convergence appears to be greatest over the Brazos Valley and north of the I-10 corridor and with the approach of the cold front, should provide enough support for scattered to numerous showers. Have gone with a 50-60% chance of rain for areas north of I-10 as a result of this. Closer to the coast, there is a slight decrease in the rainfall chances with PoPs around a 40-50% chance. Models do bring the front through the majority of the area by Saturday afternoon; however, the ECMWF and GFS models have the front stalling along the coast. Conditions dry out behind the front, so expect rain chances to decrease as the day progresses Saturday. Coastal locations may see showers linger, and experience warmer temperatures if the front does stall before it gets offshore. With the expected showers and storms for tomorrow, SPC has placed the Brazos Valley in a Marginal Risk for severe weather (level 1 of 5). The primary hazards with these storms will be the potential for damaging wind and large hail. In addition to the severe threat, some of these storms could produce locally heavy downpours. As a result, WPC has placed an area along and north of a line from the Brazos Valley to The Woodlands to the Livingston area in a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) of excessive rainfall. Elsewhere in SE Texas (with the exception of the southernmost locations in the CWA (most of Matagorda and Jackson Counties) there is a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall. Adams && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 357 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024 We`ll be on far drier outskirts of Rafael in the central and eventual southwest Gulf into early to mid parts of next week. Aloft, we should be under a mostly zonal flow on top of the ridging over Mexico. NBM suggested temperatures looked a bit too low given the pattern so we mixed in some NBM75 during the first part of the workweek. Might not be enough, but unseasonably warm readings should continue with lows in the 60s and highs in the 80s. Heading into midweek, a trough should track eastward across the Plains and the ridge over Mexico should expand northward. This should set up a more favorable flow for a frontal passage around Wednesday. Not that impressed with temperatures in its wake (lows 55-60F, highs ~80F), but it`s something. See the marine section for Hurricane Rafael info and hazardous beach conditions expected this weekend. 47 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1138 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024 CIGs gradually improving, and should be a mix of high MVFR or low VFR by 18Z, which should hold through the afternoon. Smattering of showers about, and that should also continue - have pretty broad blanket of VCSH, and while impacts specifically to terminals are possible, not high enough confidence to go with a stronger mention right now. Also, an isolated lightning strike can`t be ruled out, but largely not enough confidence for a mention in the TAFs either. Do have a PROB30 for CLL as showers appear stronger that far west, but even this may be a bit too aggressive. Tonight, expect degrading conditions overnight as cold front sweeps into the area from the W/NW. Pretty good confidence in a brief window for prevailing SHRA, but otherwise sticking with VCTS as there will be some lightning within the line of showers as well. Also expecting some window of IFR CIGs in the heaviest part of the line as well. Front will stall out just of the east of the terminals, so there will be decreasing confidence in CIG improvement towards end of period from west to east - but optimistically take all but GLS to MVFR by end of forecast period. && .MARINE... Issued at 357 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024 An elevated, long period swell from Hurricane Rafael in the south central Gulf of Mexico will begin filling in across the upper Texas coastal waters today. Small Craft Advisories are in effect offshore this afternoon through at least Sunday morning. Rafael is expected to meander around the central Gulf for the next several days...eventually weakening and moving southwest toward the Bay of Campeche early to middle parts of next week. Elevated swells, surf and tide levels will be the main impacts to the local area. A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect through at least Sunday morning for unsafe conditions. Despite water temperatures around 78F, swimming is not recommended along area beaches considering large surf and a high risk of rip currents. There are only limited lifeguards on patrol this time of year. With elevated water levels, the lowest lying portions and roads along the Bolivar Peninsula including the intersection of Highway 87 at 124, western Galveston Island, Blue Water Highway and Surfside may see some minor overwash around high tide times from wave run-up. Otherwise, a weak front and associated showers and thunderstorms will make it toward the coast overnight and Saturday morning then dissipate. Dry conditions and moderate northeast winds will then prevail into early next week. 47 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 82 60 74 60 / 50 60 20 20 Houston (IAH) 84 67 77 68 / 40 70 50 20 Galveston (GLS) 81 71 79 72 / 20 60 60 30 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Beach Hazards Statement from 6 PM CST this evening through Sunday morning for TXZ436>439. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CST Sunday for GMZ370-375. && $$ SHORT TERM...Adams LONG TERM....47 AVIATION...Luchs MARINE...47