139
FXUS64 KHGX 040600
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
100 AM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025

...New LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Tue Jun 3 2025

A couple of storms remain on the radar this afternoon. Isolated
showers and thunderstorms may continue through the afternoon
before the loss of daytime heating. Brief heavy downpours may
occur with these storms, but outside of that a few lightning
strikes and some rumbles of thunder are expected. Mostly cloudy to
overcast skies tonight will serve as an insulator for tonight,
keeping surface temperatures on the warm side. Lows will be in the
70s area wide with a few coastal locations nearing 80 degrees. An
MCS is expected to approach SE Texas from the NW, arriving in the
Brazos Valley/Piney Woods areas after midnight. Hi-res models
continue to show a weakening trend as this line approaches SE
Texas, with the line of storms becoming more broken and fizzling
out as it approaches the north side of the Houston Metro. As
mentioned by the previous forecaster, hesitant to bank on this
occurring given the setup and previous occasions when storms were
*supposed* to die out.

The afternoon probabilities are a bit higher than Wednesday
morning`s as daytime heating takes the stage. Any lingering
outflow boundaries from the morning MCS should help provide a
focus for convection with further assistance from the sea/bay
breeze or any additional outflow boundaries. Coverage should
become more scattered on Wednesday afternoon.

For locations that do receive rainfall, this will help cool down
daytime temperatures. Generally speaking, though, daytime highs
will be in the upper 80s to low 90s. Nighttime lows on Wednesday
will be in the low to mid 70s with coastal locations hovering near
80 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 1233 AM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025

Ridging builds late this week and into the weekend, setting the
stage for very hot and sunny conditions. Dew points are expected
to be relatively high, though I do suspect some afternoon mixing,
dropping afternoon humidity a tad. But don`t get too excited about
the prospect of dew points mixing down somewhat in the afternoon,
because actual temperatures are going to be quite hot. Many inland
areas this weekend could approach 100 degrees (near record warmth
for early June). And although heat index values are expected to
average around 105 (below typical heat advisory criteria), the
bright sunshine and low winds will increase the Wet Bulb Globe
Temperature into the upper 80s to near 90 during peak sunlight
hours in the early afternoon. These values are quite dangerous,
especially for those partaking in active or strenuous physical
activity outdoors during those hours. So if enjoying some time
outdoors this weekend, be advised that heat safety precautions
(staying hydrated, wearing light colored clothing, taking breaks
if working outside, etc....) will be a must!

However, this heat wave is not expected to last. Global
deterministic and ensemble data strongly suggest a breakdown of
the ridge and a return to an unsettled pattern featuring mid/upper
shortwaves embedded in NW flow aloft. This is a classic pattern
for thunderstorms this time of year. So we expect those
temperatures to become less hot as rain chances rise during the
early to middle part of next week.

Self

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1233 AM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025

The primary feature of concern will be the line of thunderstorms
approaching from the northwest. These storms are expected to be
near our northern terminals (CLL UTS) as early as 09-11Z. However,
current hi resolution guidance suggest that the line will weaken
as it approaches. Though we cannot rule out this guidance being
incorrect, there are signs that the line (or at least the part of
the line moving towards our region) is weakening. Still, this line
is worth monitoring and could impact much of SE Texas in the forms
of showers and isolated TSRA this morning. There will be another
opportunity for isolated to scattered SHRA/TSRA during the
afternoon hours. There is uncertainty regarding how far south a
weak front pushes today, complicating the wind direction forecast.
Winds should remain SE well ahead of the front. But near the
front, winds are likely to become more S to SW, while areas behind
the front could experience variable or even a period of W to N
winds.

Self

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1233 AM CDT Wed Jun 4 2025

Onshore flow continues through the forecast period. Winds may be
occasionally gusty, especially during the late afternoon and early
evening near the coast, and overnight for areas farther
offshore. Persistent onshore flow will likely enhance the rip
current risk somewhat. By early next week, the risk of showers and
thunderstorms begins to increase. Generally speaking, next week is
looking unsettled.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  90  74  92  74 /  40  10  10   0
Houston (IAH)  91  76  92  76 /  30   0  20   0
Galveston (GLS)  87  80  87  81 /  20   0  10   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 7 AM CDT this morning
     for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Adams
LONG TERM....Self
AVIATION...Self
MARINE...Self