084
FXUS64 KHGX 081738
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1138 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday Night)
Issued at 357 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

Warmer than normal temperatures will continue today with highs in
the 80s area wide. A weak cold front, coupled with rain along and
ahead of the front will help to bring temperatures down into the 70s
for inland areas to near 80 across coastal locations on Saturday.
Lows for tonight and Saturday night will be in the 60s for much of
the area. Locations in the Piney Woods and Brazos Valley could dip
into the upper 50s.

Diving more into the rain chances...a weak surface cold front in
association with an upper level trough will result in increased rain
chances today and Saturday. A strong subtropical jet, with
relatively strong winds through the mid-levels continues to draw in
moisture from the Pacific and across Mexico into Texas. This can be
seen on WV imagery from GOES-16. Moisture convergence appears to be
greatest over the Brazos Valley and north of the I-10 corridor and
with the approach of the cold front, should provide enough support
for scattered to numerous showers. Have gone with a 50-60% chance of
rain for areas north of I-10 as a result of this. Closer to the
coast, there is a slight decrease in the rainfall chances with PoPs
around a 40-50% chance.

Models do bring the front through the majority of the area by
Saturday afternoon; however, the ECMWF and GFS models have the front
stalling along the coast. Conditions dry out behind the front, so
expect rain chances to decrease as the day progresses Saturday.
Coastal locations may see showers linger, and experience warmer
temperatures if the front does stall before it gets offshore.

With the expected showers and storms for tomorrow, SPC has placed
the Brazos Valley in a Marginal Risk for severe weather (level 1 of
5). The primary hazards with these storms will be the potential for
damaging wind and large hail.

In addition to the severe threat, some of these storms could produce
locally heavy downpours. As a result, WPC has placed an area along
and north of a line from the Brazos Valley to The Woodlands to the
Livingston area in a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) of excessive
rainfall. Elsewhere in SE Texas (with the exception of the
southernmost locations in the CWA (most of Matagorda and Jackson
Counties) there is a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for excessive
rainfall.  Adams

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 357 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

We`ll be on far drier outskirts of Rafael in the central and
eventual southwest Gulf into early to mid parts of next week.
Aloft, we should be under a mostly zonal flow on top of the ridging
over Mexico. NBM suggested temperatures looked a bit too low
given the pattern so we mixed in some NBM75 during the first part
of the workweek. Might not be enough, but unseasonably warm
readings should continue with lows in the 60s and highs in the
80s. Heading into midweek, a trough should track eastward across
the Plains and the ridge over Mexico should expand northward. This
should set up a more favorable flow for a frontal passage around
Wednesday. Not that impressed with temperatures in its wake (lows
55-60F, highs ~80F), but it`s something.

See the marine section for Hurricane Rafael info and hazardous
beach conditions expected this weekend. 47

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1138 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

CIGs gradually improving, and should be a mix of high MVFR or low
VFR by 18Z, which should hold through the afternoon. Smattering of
showers about, and that should also continue - have pretty broad
blanket of VCSH, and while impacts specifically to terminals are
possible, not high enough confidence to go with a stronger mention
right now. Also, an isolated lightning strike can`t be ruled out,
but largely not enough confidence for a mention in the TAFs
either. Do have a PROB30 for CLL as showers appear stronger that
far west, but even this may be a bit too aggressive.

Tonight, expect degrading conditions overnight as cold front
sweeps into the area from the W/NW. Pretty good confidence in a
brief window for prevailing SHRA, but otherwise sticking with VCTS
as there will be some lightning within the line of showers as
well. Also expecting some window of IFR CIGs in the heaviest part
of the line as well. Front will stall out just of the east of the
terminals, so there will be decreasing confidence in CIG
improvement towards end of period from west to east - but
optimistically take all but GLS to MVFR by end of forecast period.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 357 AM CST Fri Nov 8 2024

An elevated, long period swell from Hurricane Rafael in the south
central Gulf of Mexico will begin filling in across the upper
Texas coastal waters today. Small Craft Advisories are in effect
offshore this afternoon through at least Sunday morning. Rafael
is expected to meander around the central Gulf for the next
several days...eventually weakening and moving southwest toward
the Bay of Campeche early to middle parts of next week. Elevated
swells, surf and tide levels will be the main impacts to the
local area.

A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect through at least Sunday
morning for unsafe conditions. Despite water temperatures around
78F, swimming is not recommended along area beaches considering
large surf and a high risk of rip currents. There are only limited
lifeguards on patrol this time of year. With elevated water
levels, the lowest lying portions and roads along the Bolivar
Peninsula including the intersection of Highway 87 at 124, western
Galveston Island, Blue Water Highway and Surfside may see some
minor overwash around high tide times from wave run-up.

Otherwise, a weak front and associated showers and thunderstorms
will make it toward the coast overnight and Saturday morning then
dissipate. Dry conditions and moderate northeast winds will then
prevail into early next week. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  82  60  74  60 /  50  60  20  20
Houston (IAH)  84  67  77  68 /  40  70  50  20
Galveston (GLS)  81  71  79  72 /  20  60  60  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Beach Hazards Statement from 6 PM CST this evening through
     Sunday morning for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CST Sunday for GMZ370-375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Adams
LONG TERM....47
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...47