400
FXUS64 KHGX 232253
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
453 PM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 136 PM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

Southerly to southeasterly winds will continue through the rest of
the afternoon into Sunday night, bringing in a surge of moisture and
a continued increase in temperatures. Lows tonight will be a bit
warmer than the last couple of nights with temperatures in the 50s
to near 60 degrees N of I-10, and in the low 60s S of I-10 to upper
60s along the coast.

Warm air will continue to advect into SE Texas on Sunday, resulting
in highs in the upper 70s along the coast to low 80s inland. Dew
points will be in the 60s, which unfortunately will make it feel a
bit warm and muggy for this time of year. We are still projected to
be a few degrees shy of record high temperatures for
tomorrow...nonetheless we will be unseasonably warm.

Lows for Sunday night will features temperatures in the 60s inland
and in the low 70s along the coast.

As the pressure gradient begins to tighten ahead of the next front
(more on that in the long-term) expect winds to be breezy to gusty
at the surface beginning late tomorrow morning through the afternoon
hours (beginning from NW to SE)

Adams

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 136 PM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

The long term begins with a relatively zonal flow pattern aloft.
Meanwhile, a trailing cold front (associated with a Great Lakes
bound sfc low) will push southward into SE Texas on Monday. All
of the synoptic ascent will remain well to our north. This is why
PoPs are so low on Monday despite a frontal boundary pushing
through a moist LL environment. Dew points ahead of the front are
expected be near 70 degrees. Though uncertainty exists regarding
FROPA timing, we still think the bulk of the day on Monday will be
ahead of the front, placing us on the very warm, humid, and
breezy side of the boundary. Inland highs are expected to be in
the mid-80s. The front is expected to push through the CWA Monday
evening /night, with falling temps and dew points in its wake. By
Tuesday morning, most areas are expected to drop into the 50s.

The forecast gets a little trickier on Tuesday. There is
uncertainty regarding how far south the front pushes before it
stalls. Forecast confidence is also low regarding the timing of
the front`s northward return. Eventually, the front will push
back to the north, bringing warmer and humid conditions. Right
now, we are leaning towards a scenario where most of the region
experiences a mild Tuesday with low humidity and highs in the 70s.
However, our forecast does show rising dew points at the coast
along with some low PoPs near the coast and offshore.

There is growing evidence for a more amplified mid/upper pattern
by the middle of next week. This is supported by global
deterministic and ensemble guidance, as well as large scale
teleconnections such as the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and Pacific -
North American Pattern (PNA). The result is expected to be a
deceiving warm up ahead of a strong cold front that`s projected to
move through our region around Thanksgiving. Large scale forcings
are expected to remain unfavorable for widespread rainfall. So
PoPs remain low through the end of the week. However, the early
outlook for your Wednesday, Thanksgiving, and Friday features a
temperature rollercoaster ride. Wednesday is expected to be warm
and humid, with many areas reaching the low 80s. Thanksgiving`s
temps will highly depend on the timing of the cold front. It`s
possible that we start the holiday off quite warm/humid, then end
the day with sweater weather. Technically our forecast shows
Thanksgiving highs in the mid/upper 70s across our southern CWA,
with upper 60s to low 70s farther north. But an earlier FROPA
timing could significantly lower those temps. The very early
outlook for Friday features highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s, and
lows in the upper 30s to upper 40s. Most of the global guidance
suggests it will be cooler.

Self

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 421 PM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

Light southeast winds are expected overnight, becoming southerly
late Sunday morning and strengthening to 10-15 knots with gusts
of 20-25 knots. Gusts diminish Sunday evening. VFR conditions will
prevail throughout the TAF period.

03

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 136 PM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

Winds and seas will remain low through the rest of today and into
this evening. Onshore winds and seas will begin to gradually
increase overnight in Sunday. Caution flags are likely in the
nearshore and offshore waters Sunday afternoon through Monday
morning. We cannot rule out conditions reaching Small Craft
criteria, especially Sunday night. A frontal boundary is expected
to stall near the Upper Texas Coast Monday night into Tuesday.
Couldn`t rule out isolated to widely scattered showers as a
result. South to south-southwest winds and seas increase on
Wednesday and Thursday as a frontal boundary approaches from the
north. Strong offshore flow is expected behind the front later in
the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  56  82  64  84 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  58  82  66  85 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  69  78  73  79 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Adams
LONG TERM....Self
AVIATION...03
MARINE...Self