964
FXUS64 KHGX 182257
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
557 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 251 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

A rinse and repeat forecast...ridging aloft and at the surface will
continue to dominate the pattern through the short term period. Hot,
humid and mostly dry conditions will continue with highs generally
in the mid 90s, and afternoon heat indices into the 100 to 107 degF
range. Low-level moisture, light variable winds and mostly clear
skies will once again result in areas of fog overnight through early
Thursday morning, and then again Thursday night into Friday.
Overnight lows in the 70s can be expected. In terms of rain/storms,
a corridor of PWs into the 1.8 to 2.0 inch range (per NAM/GFS) are
progged near Matagorda/Palacios region, extending offshore over our
Gulf waters. This surge in low-level moisture will likely bring a
few light showers along the coast in the morning, and very isolated
activity inland along the seabreeze.

JM

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 251 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Long term forecast looks to remain mostly dry with temperatures stay-
ing above normal through the upcoming weekend. This strong mid/upper
ridge currently in place over the state will be persist into Sat/Sun.
A dry warm SW flow at the lower and mid levels will help keep things
quiet with highs in the mid 90s for most locations...otherwise lower
90s are possible.

We could see some low rain chances return for the start of next week
as a series of mid/upper level shortwaves moving across the Northern
and Central Plains helps to flatten the ridging over the region. The
return of deeper onshore winds (and moisture) could give us a slight-
ly more active seabreeze for Mon/Tues. Best rain chances should stay
near the coast. Highs are going to remain on the warm side (from 2-4
degrees above normal)...in the lower 90s. Overnight lows through the
period should range from the lower to mid 70s inland...upper 70s at/
along the immediate coast. 41

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 557 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Any seabreeze related late afternoon isolated SHRA/TSRA (currently between
SGR and IAH area) should dissipate early this evening. Winds will weaken
this evening, and once again overnight could see possible MVFR/IFR cigs/vsbys
development. Current thinking has a majority of the TAF sites closer
to MVFR, but will monitor observations and trends overnight. Any low
cloud and/or fog development will eventually lift and dissipate after
sunrise and will leave the sites VFR in the late morning thru afternoon
hours. Most spots will see mainly SE winds increasing to 5 to 10 knots
in the afternoon. Decreasing winds and VFR tomorrow evening.  42

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 251 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

No major changes with the forecast as light onshore winds and low
seas remain in place the next several days. Isolated showers (and
thunderstorms) are possible over the Gulf waters late in the week-
end into early next week. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  75  97  75  96 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  77  95  76  95 /  10   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  80  89  79  87 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...42
MARINE...41