243
FXUS64 KHGX 052358
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
558 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 232 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

On this warm April day...wait a minute...it`s still February and it
feels like THAT outside?! Didn`t we just have a winter storm a
couple of weeks ago?! Whelp let`s try this again...on this warm
FEBRUARY day we`re already seeing temperatures reaching into the
upper 70s to low 80s once again. A few spots are approaching the
daily maximum temperature record, but these will be harder to
break today since a lot of them are a few degrees higher than the
records from February 4th (yesterday) and 6th (tomorrow). It`s not
impossible...but certainly it`ll be a tougher task to break or
tie records today. The exception to that is Houston/IAH, which as
of 2pm is one degree shy of tying the record of 83F set back in
1957. We still have surface high pressure off to our east
allowing for onshore flow to provide a steady funnel of WAA and
moisture advection. An upper level low near south Texas today is
drifting eastward into the western Gulf. Some bands of PVA
combined with being in the left entrance region of a LLJ that`s
situated to our north has proven enough to generate some spotty
light rain showers. I`ve added in some 15% PoPs generally west of
I-45 through the afternoon as a result.

The big story for the foreseeable (pun intended) future will be fog.
Sea fog remains along the coast this afternoon, but will surge back
inland as we head towards the evening and overnight hours. Fog will
be dense at times especially in and around Galveston Bay into the
mid-morning hours. Expect mild temperatures overnight with lows
mainly in the mid to upper 60s...so even our low temperatures are
above the normal high temperature...neat! Expect to see more low 80s
on the map tomorrow afternoon with 850mb temperatures approaching
the 99th percentile. The daily record high temperatures for tomorrow
are "softer", so the probabilities of breaking/tying them will be
higher than they are for today. Temperatures tomorrow night will
bottom out in the mid 60s with patchy dense fog taking hold once
again. So, long story short, the main differences between today and
tomorrow are 1-2F in temperature differences and a slight chance
of spotty rain today with slim to no chance tomorrow.

Batiste

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 232 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

Status quo to end the work week and continuing through the weekend
with an early taste of Spring (perhaps false Spring!). Unseasonably
warm and moist conditions will keep highs near or above record
levels with cyclic foggy mornings (more persistent along the
coast/near the bay).  High temps will continue to run a good 20
degrees above normal well into the 80s.  Models have continued to
hold/stall the first in a series of cold fronts north of southeast
TX on Sunday, so high temps Sunday and Monday have been bumped up a
bit in the extended to account for this.  However, the main front
will still push across southeast TX by mid week/Tuesday bringing a
noticeable return to seasonably cool temps and a good chance of
wetting rains Tuesday and Wednesday.

Evans

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 550 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

VFR conditions (aside from along the immediate coast) will prevail
over the next couple of hours before developing fog and lowering
cigs bring about a period of IFR/LIFR conditions yet again
overnight and into tomorrow morning. Fog could result in
visibilities below 1 mile at times, especially at LBX/GLS. Cigs in
the IFR/occasionally LIFR range will remain in place as late as
mid-morning tomorrow. A gradual improvement arrives with the
dissipation of fog tomorrow morning as winds increase, and cigs
should lift to VFR levels by early afternoon. South winds should
remain near 10 knots through tomorrow. Another period of fog/low
cigs is expected tomorrow night.

Cady

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 232 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

With onshore flow prevailing, the threat for sea fog will continue
through the end of the week. Fog has become patchy this afternoon
allowing the transition from a Dense Fog Advisory to a Marine
Weather Statement, but where that fog remains...it remains rather
dense. Fog will become more widespread and increasingly denser
later this evening and prevailing into the mid-morning hours.
Expect this to be a consistent theme through at least the weekend.
The nearshore waters are not expected to see much improvement
during the daytime hours, so the Marine Dense Fog Advisory has
been extended into Thursday afternoon and will likely be extended
beyond that in future updates.

With above normal temperatures persisting, there will be some
gradual warming of sea surface temperatures this week which could
make the development of sea fog less likely. However, the threat
will continue to remain until a cold front pushes offshore early
next week. Until then, mariners can expect light to occasionally
moderate onshore flow and periods of sea fog.

Batiste

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  66  81  65  82 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  67  81  66  82 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  63  70  62  69 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST Thursday for GMZ330-335-350-
     355.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Batiste
LONG TERM....Evans
AVIATION...Cady
MARINE...Batiste