669
FXUS64 KHGX 081855
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
155 PM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 141 PM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025

- Hot weather continues this afternoon, though expect broadly
  cooler conditions Thursday through early next week.

- Small Craft Advisory in effect beginning early Thursday morning
  for Gulf waters. Caution Flags likely in the bays. Potential for
  some minor coastal flooding beginning Thursday evening.

- Increased fire weather danger over the next few days, especially
  on Friday due to dry fuels, lower RH and increasing wind
  speeds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 141 PM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025

Still anticipating hot conditions this afternoon with slight chances
for showers/storms near the coastline from the sea breeze. Highs are
still expected to reach the upper 80s/mid 90s, close to records in a
few spots. Generally quiet weather expected overnight with maybe
some isolated patchy fog along the coastal plains near Angleton.

A surface high over the Great Lakes is expected to expand south as
it pushes eastward. This should push a diffuse backdoor boundary
into SE Texas on Thursday, shifting winds northeasterly and
funneling drier air into the region. Early morning lows should feel
noticeably cooler on Friday/this weekend, reaching the 50s/60s inland
and lower 70s along the coast. Highs will only see a slight decrease
on Thursday/Friday, generally in the upper 80s to lower 90s. This is
partially due a midlevel high over TX/Mexico, which is progged to
strengthen slightly to 593 dam. As a result, midlevel heights over
SE Texas are forecasted to exceed the 90th percentile (NAEFS), thus
mitigating the effects of advection from northeasterly flow. Drier
air filling in aloft with subsidence from the ridge should help
suppress rain chances on Friday through early next week.

Onshore winds are forecasted to return sometime on Saturday,
allowing moisture to rebuild Sunday into next week. The midlevel
ridge aloft is poised to weaken slightly, briefly being flattened by
a passing shortwave moving through the Great Basin. Even though SE
winds will have returned by this point, high temperatures should
remains around the same (upper 80s/lower 90s). The mid/upper level
highs should shift eastward into the northwestern Gulf coast next
week. The midlevel high strengthens to 593 dam again by Tuesday,
with NAEFS midlevel heights exceeding the 99th/99.5th percentile
over SE Texas. By this point, we should start to see a slight warm
up with respect to highs, though rain chances should remain slim to
none.

03

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 621 AM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025

VFR everywhere but LBX, which has seen VSBY drop to as low as
3/4SM this morning. This is the topline for its TAF, and also have
a brief MVFR TEMPO for CXO in case of a sunrise surprise. However,
by 15Z we should be VFR for all sites with another day of NE-E
winds.

I do expect a little more wind today as a weak front approaches
the region, with peaks this afternoon up around 10 kts. The
inherited PROB30s from HOU/SGR coastward may, very strictly
speaking, be a touch aggressive. But I do think they`re useful in
highlighting where the best potential for afternoon showers will
be and will keep them even if a "true" PoP is maybe closer to 20
or so? While winds will slack off this evening, they may stay up
enough to stave off fog at most places, and so have only a light
mention at LBX.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 141 PM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025

Low pressure in the Bay of Campeche and surface high pressure
intruding from the north will tighten the pressure gradient over the
Gulf waters. This should bring ENE-E winds of 15-25 knots with seas
of 4-7ft. Caution flags will likely be needed in the bays with
Small Craft Advisories in effect for the Gulf waters early Thursday
through Friday afternoon. This conditions will also bring an
increased risk of rip current across Gulf facing beaches during this
period.

As mentioned previously, the easterly fetch and moon phase should
push water levels/tides higher than normal. PETSS guidance shows
levels peaking near 3.6ft MLLW around high tide tonight and 3.6-
4.0ft MLLW each evening Thursday through Saturday. Coastal flood
issues in our area typically begin around 3.7ft for the lower spots,
becoming more prominent at 4.0ft and above. As mentioned before,
residents on the Bolivar Peninsula should be on the lookout for a
potential coastal flood advisory should the forecast remain
unchanged.

Conditions should improve this weekend as the pressure gradient
weakens.

03

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 141 PM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025

Active burn bans in SE Texas: Houston, Madison, Trinity,
Walker, Polk, San Jacinto, Colorado, and Wharton counties.

Still anticipating winds in the range of 10-20 mph over the next few
days. Relative humidity should be around 30-50% inland today through
Thursday, but should fall to 25-40% on Friday and Saturday as drier
air fills in behind a weak boundary (lowest on Friday). 10hr Fuels
are forecasted to fall below the 10th percentile across region by
Friday, with the Texas A&M Forest Service forecasting a moderate-
high fire danger rating each day. Broadly these conditions are not
quite at the level of Red Flag Criteria, though it will result in
increased fire danger. Caution should be exercised when working with
open flames or operating equipment that can cause sparks, especially
in drier locations.

Some forecast models have suggested the potential for RH values near
20% or lower for Friday afternoon. This make allow for fires to
spark even quicker, though again this is not certain at this time.
Stay tuned for additional forecast updates.

03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  68  92  61  89 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  72  91  67  89 /  10   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  76  88  73  86 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Thursday to 10 AM CDT Friday for
     GMZ350-355-370-375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...03
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...03