819
FXUS64 KHGX 092156
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
356 PM CST Sat Nov 9 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 356 PM CST Sat Nov 9 2024

With a weak cold front moving through, we were able to see some
rain across the area - down in Chambers County, even some heavy
rain was observed. For the next several days, a turn towards fair
weather is expected - and while technically cooler, conditions
should remain well above average. A few things of note for today:
- Fair weather dominates the forecast, but moisture remaining on
  the ground will provide an opportunity for patchy late
  night/early morning fog, at least for a night or two.
- Temperatures will both be a touch cooler than previous days, but
  also well above normal still. Highs staying largely in the upper
  70s to 80s with drier conditions does not pose a significant
  heat threat. Still, if doing particularly strenuous work with
  little shelter from direct sun, there`s a value in not pushing
  yourself beyond your limits.
- Tropical Storm Rafael does still exist in the Gulf of Mexico,
  fortunately with continued confidence that there will be no
  direct impact to the area. If you`re on the waters or beaches,
  however, it`s important to remember that rougher seas from the
  storm`s swell and heightened rip current threats exist.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 356 PM CST Sat Nov 9 2024

Well, the forecast has at least gotten considerably more
straightforward now that the cold front from overnight and early
this morning has cleared the land portions of the forecast area
(though its trailing tail end is still across portions of our
coastal Gulf waters). This has largely pushed all the rain to our
east, barring some light showers around eastern Chambers County
and slivers of southeastern Liberty. It`s again a little more
complicated over the upper Gulf waters, but I`ll leave that to the
marine section to cover in more detail.

Winds have come around to more or less northerly - more
northwesterly in some spots, and more northeasterly in others, but
all in all fairly light. West of I-45 the sky is clear, while the
frontal zone is close enough to keep the back edge of the cloud
deck in place for those east of I-45. Ultimately, this hasn`t had
an enormous impact on temperatures - it`s just slightly warmer in
the west than the east, as even the light cold advection on the
northerly winds is evening things out some.

Tonight isn`t looking to really be that much cooler than last
night - the clouds and rain overnight look to largely match any
small bit of cooler, drier air filtering in. And...while tonight,
then leading into tomorrow and tomorrow night, does look cooler
than previous days it`s really not much more than a nudge in the
cooler direction. The ultimate result of this cold front is to
just bring us down to something around 10 degrees above average.
Look - someday, we`re going to get real actual fall around here,
but it`s not going to be in the next couple of days.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 356 PM CST Sat Nov 9 2024

Benign conditions are expected during the early stages of the week,
as high pressure dominates the local weather pattern and Tropical
Storm Rafael tracks southwestward over the southern Gulf of Mexico.
On Wednesday, a mid to upper level trough will move across the
Southern Plains and may result in a few showers over Southeast
Texas. There is the potential for a cold front to then move across
Texas, and possibly even reach our local area sometime Wednesday.
However, there is still significant inconsistencies between the
models with the timing and location of the front. At this moment,
the GFS has the boundary stalling just to our north and is slower,
while the ECMWF brings it all the way into the coastal waters and is
faster. Our rain chances as well as temperatures for the rest of the
week will somewhat depend on how far south the frontal boundary
tracks. For now, continued with an NBM solution which carries dry
and continues the warm November temperatures.

Speaking of temperatures, we will likely see high temperatures
staying around 10 degrees above normal for much of the week. Look
for highs in the upper 70s over the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods
region and the low to mid 80s elsewhere. Wednesday should be our
hotter day ahead of the frontal boundary with some spots south of I-
10 and west of I-45 possibly reaching the upper 80s. Overnight, the
lows will be mostly in the mid 50s to low 60s inland and in the
upper 60s along the coasts. Slightly cooler temperatures possible
Thursday and Thursday night if we do indeed get CAA post front.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1134 AM CST Sat Nov 9 2024

Front now east of terminals, but some lingering showers 5-10 mi E
of GLS, while UTS/CXO/IAH/HOU/LBX find themselves right on the
back edge of cloud deck, but generally still VFR. Winds northerly
around 10 knots. Conditions should degrade overnight as MVFR-IFR
CIGs come back in. Some guidance shows fog development, which is
plausible given extra moisture from last night`s rain. However,
unsure how significant this fog will be. Mention very lightly in
TAFs, and can be nudged in either direction as confidence in
actual impacts increase. Best odds for fog at normal problem spots
like CXO and LBX. Gradual improvement again tomorrow morning, back
to higher MVFR or even VFR by end of forecast period. Winds back
up to around 10 knots, but a little more N-NNE, rather than
today`s NNW-N winds.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 356 PM CST Sat Nov 9 2024

Moderate northeast to east winds will continue through the rest of
the weekend. Seas will remain elevated as swells from Tropical Storm
Rafael continue to move into our coastal waters. Small Craft
Advisories will continue in effect through Sunday morning. Also,
elevated water levels over the bays can be expected through Sunday.
For the rest of the early part of the week, wave heights will
continue to subside as Rafael tracks southwest into the southern
Gulf of Mexico. For the rest of the week, expect light to moderate
northeast to east winds and seas of 2 to 4 feet.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  61  81  57  80 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  69  82  63  82 /  20  10   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  72  81  71  81 /  30  10   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Beach Hazards Statement through Sunday morning for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for GMZ350-355.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CST Sunday for GMZ370-375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Luchs
LONG TERM....Cotto (24)
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...Cotto (24)