Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
075 FXUS64 KHGX 021152 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 652 AM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1200 AM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025 - Rain chances will be boosted by the presence of a weak front drifting in from the north. The strongest storms will be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall. A marginal risk of excessive rainfall (threat level 1 of 4) is in place Saturday across Southeast Texas. - Daily rounds of showers and storms will stick with us into the new week, generally focusing around the seabreeze. - Seasonably hot/humid conditions will also carry with us into next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1200 AM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025 We`re now in August and summer just keeps on summering around Southeast Texas. That said, this weekend will be...just a little bit different. There is a weak front...ostensibly a cold front, though there isn`t really a cold airmass ready to push in behind it, but moving too much to be a full-out stationary front. Regardless, it is currently a focus for rains primarily (but not entirely) north of our area, and we`ll see a better opportunity for storm coverage through the day and early evening Saturday with as the front blobs on down and precipitable water rises to reach or just exceed two inches...roughly the 90th percentile PWAT for this time of year. With a boundary near/in the area, slow-moving storms, and ample moisture, we`ll have a marginal risk for excessive rain and localized flooding concerns with the day/evening`s storms. Fortunately, despite all of the above, individual storms don`t seem likely to be excessively long-lived, and though slow-moving, I don`t anticipate a whole lot of training either, so that mitigates the threat somewhat. But for the strongest storms of the day, should they do their thing over a vulnerable spot, we could definitely see a couple/few inches rack up pretty quickly, and cause concerns in that spot. For Sunday and into next week, everything just kind of settles back towards what we`d call a typical summertime pattern. Not the hot and dry one we just had, but the one that tends to be not quite as hot (but still hot, as it is the hottest time of the year here) along with increased cloudiness and isolated to scattered showers and storms each day. Through Monday or so, this potential should be more broadly across Southeast Texas as the front...or what`s left of it...meanders about the area before washing out. Later in the week, storm potential should weight a little more towards the coast, as the seabreeze will return to being the dominant focus for storm development. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 646 AM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025 Isolated showers and storms moving in from the north this morning. IAH experiencing MVFR CIGs, with VFR returning around mid-morning. All other sites at VFR. Coverage of showers and storms will increase during the afternoon with gusty winds and reduced VSBYs possible with storms. Winds will be light and NW this morning, becoming southerly by late afternoon. Activity should come to an end later this evening, with VFR conditions overnight into Sunday morning. && .MARINE... Issued at 1200 AM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025 Persistent low seas and generally light, but occasionally moderate winds driven by the daily seabreeze and landbreeze cycle will continue to prevail. Expect daily opportunities for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms into the new week. Stronger winds and rougher seas can occur in the vicinity of the thunderstorms. In some cases, thunderstorm winds can extend far from the associated storm. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 95 75 96 76 / 40 20 10 10 Houston (IAH) 95 77 94 77 / 50 40 50 10 Galveston (GLS) 91 81 89 82 / 40 50 50 20 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Luchs AVIATION...Adams MARINE...Luchs