Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
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499 FXUS64 KHGX 221733 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1133 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday Night) Issued at 309 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024 The short term forecast will remain characterized by cool and dry conditions, though a gradual warming trend is expected to begin as we approach the middle of the weekend. For now, another cool night is in store with many surface stations as of 3PM CST again running below model guidance for overnight temperatures. Portions of the northern zones have dropped into the upper 30s, with temperatures so far in the mid to upper 40s elsewhere. A dry and relatively pleasant day is on the cards to close out the work week with broad surface high pressure in the Central Plains being the dominant synoptic feature. Look for daytime highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s, light winds, and mostly clear skies. Lows should yet again reach the upper 30s to lower 40s. A pattern shift gets underway on Saturday as the aforementioned area of high pressure pushes off to the east, slowly bringing about a return to an onshore flow regime for our area. With the return of WAA and moisture transport, we should see highs in the mid/upper 70s for most of the area while lows will sit in the 50s. Cady && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 309 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024 The extended forecast looks to be an active one as a series of cold fronts move into and across SE TX next week. With the surface high shifting further east of the region and pres- sures falling over the Southern Plains on Sun, the tightening grad- ient should result in increasing onshore winds/warming temperatures for Sun/Mon. Highs are expected to reach the lower to mid 80s as we start of the week. The next cold front is expected to drop SSE from the Plains and into the area by Mon night. While low-level moisture is going to be limited for much of the CWA...we could see some very isolated showers form by early Tues morning as the boundary reaches our coastal counties/Gulf waters. Thereafter, global models are indicating that this front will even- tually stall along to just off the coast by Tues night. However, we will be seeing the rapid return of onshore winds by Wed as the next system moves off the Rockies and begins deepening over the Southern Plains. Isolated to scattered convection will be possible on Wed as the upper jet pattern becomes more favorable and low-level moisture increase (PWs 1.4"-1.6"). All of this will be setting the stage for a second stronger cold front, which should move into and across the CWA on Thanksgiving Day (if models do verify). So, the potential is there for a warmish soggy turkey day this year. 41 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1125 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024 VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Skies mostly clear; however, with moisture return later in the day could see high clouds fill in later this evening. Winds remain light out of the NE/N, becoming VRB overnight. && .MARINE... Issued at 309 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024 Light northerly winds and low seas will prevail today. But as high pressure begins moving east of the region...winds will become more easterly tonight/tomorrow. Onshore winds are set to return by late tomorrow night...strengthening on Sun as the gradient tightens (in response to the next system moving into the Southern Plains). SCEC or SCA flags may be needed by Mon. The next cold front is expected to move into the bays/nearshore waters by early Tues morning, then stalling in/near this same region by Tue night. Moderate to strong onshore winds will be returning on Weds along with the possibility of Caution/Advisory flags once again. A second stronger cold front is forecast to move into SE TX on Thurs (Thanksgiving Day)...maybe not reaching the Gulf waters until sometime that night. Stay tuned. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 72 42 75 54 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 72 45 74 56 / 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 70 61 73 66 / 0 0 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Cady LONG TERM....41 AVIATION...Adams MARINE...41