593
FXUS64 KHGX 061744
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1244 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 310 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

The theme of this weekend will be "What if peak of summer, but in
early June?". Look for temperatures near daily records, and even
if those records stay safe, it`ll be wise to keep heat safety at
the front of mind as the nice weather and the weekend will surely
pull many of us outside to enjoy the feel of grass. Some key
points on the forecast:
- With highs rising into the upper 90s for all but the immediate
  Gulf coast, record highs will be at risk both Saturday and
  Sunday. The most at risk will be Hobby Airport, whose records
  are 98 and 97, respectively.
- The forecast heat index is the "trailing" heat intensity tool,
  and even it is forecast to be around/above 105 for inland
  counties. HeatRisk largely rises into the major impact range
  (level 3 of 4) on the persistent high-end temperatures, and high
  risk level wet bulb globe temps (level 4 of 5) are also
  forecast.
- A stormier pattern returns early next week with a cold front
  sagging its way south through the state. At the least, we`ll be
  looking for daily opportunities for rain and thunderstorm
  development. Stay tuned in the coming days for more information
  on potential for severe storms or excessive rain in this
  stretch.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday Night)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

The short term is Ridge Time for the Texas Gulf Coast. An 592+ dm
500 mb high will be hanging out over the coast through today, and
only retreat a tiny bit back towards the west by late Saturday
night, keeping us fully under its reign for the entire period. At
lower levels, continued onshore flow around high pressure off to
our east means we`ll keep things good and humid as well. Sooo,
yup, we`re not gonna really have anything to talk about except
heat. As we build into the peak heat of the next week this
weekend, we`ll mostly be exploring the nuances of the heat, and
what kind of threat it poses to a place where heat is already a
familiar, and common, foe this time of year.

Temperatures - First off, we`ve got a pretty high floor. Average
highs this time of year are roughly around 90 degrees. Today, I`ve
got forecast highs beginning to reach into the mid 90s inland.
Looking at the NBM probability distribution, there`s not much room
for things to come in below that, either as confidence in the
high-end heat is about as high. Today is the "uncertain" day,
where the probability of a high above 90 is 70-100 percent for all
but the immediate Gulf coast. Tomorrow looks even more confidently
in the 90s, as my forecast now pushes into the middle to upper 90s
and the NBM probability of highs above 90 degrees are 90-100
percent except for right on the Gulf.

On the flip side, while we will eventually make some record highs
look nervously over their shoulder, today probably isn`t quite
that day. NBM probabilities fall to less than 10 percent for
virtually the entire area at 95 degrees today. So while confidence
is high that we get easily into the 90s today, the upper 90s seem
off the table. To reach that same probability ceiling tomorrow, we
drift upwards to 98 degrees. This tends to imply that even as the
heat turns up, we`re still looking to fall short of daily records,
which cluster around the century mark. So, while I`m quite
confident Saturday highs will be uncomfortably close to records,
I`d also be somewhat surprised to see any records fall. If one
does, I`d put my money on Hobby, whose record high for June 7 is
only 98 degrees.

Things do not get much better at night, as low temps should be up in
the middle to upper 70s both nights. Right on the immediate Gulf
coast, temps may struggle to fall below 80 at all (sorry,
Galveston).

Heat Index - our traditional index to describe the combined impact
of heat and humidity, expect the hot temps and humid conditions to
result in peak heat index in the triple digits area-wide today,
though generally in the 100-105 range. Tomorrow, things crank up
more inland with the hotter temps, with forecast peak heat index
of 104-109.

Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) - Similar to heat index in that
it considers heat and humidity, but also uses wind speeds and
solar intensity (due to both cloud cover and sun angle). Both
today and tomorrow (especially tomorrow!), WBGT forecasts rise
into the high risk range for the large majority of Southeast
Texas. High risk is a level 4 of 5 in these threat categories,
with only extreme above it. Fortunately, there is no real area of
extreme risk emerging tomorrow.

HeatRisk - An experimental heat tool, this considers temperature
in the context of how unusually high it gets, and the persistence
of that heat - both overnight and over multiple days. Today, with
temperatures a little closer to average than to records, HeatRisk
is a mix of moderate and major impact (levels 2 and 3 of 4).
Tomorrow, major impact potential becomes much more widespread
across the area. On the upside, like with WBGT, there is no real
emergence of an extreme impact potential tomorrow.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 1151 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

We begin the long term still under the strong influence of a deep
subtropical ridge, resulting in hotter than normal temperatures on
both Sunday and Monday. Both days are expected to feature inland
highs in the mid/upper 90s. However, ridging will start its
breakdown on Monday. Thus, Monday is expected to be a tad less hot
than Sunday. Monday will also have a better chance of isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms. Beyond Monday, ridging
breakdowns further while a parade of vort maxes and shortwaves pass
over our region, resulting in an unsettled and less hot pattern.
Many locations could fail to reach 90 degrees Tuesday-Thursday due
to clouds and scattered to widespread showers/thunderstorms. We will
need to monitor the potential for heavier thunderstorms. Localized
flooding would be the primary concern. But a few strong to severe
thunderstorms couldn`t be ruled out either. The Tuesday-Thursday
time frame is a little far out to be talking confidently about
severe weather and flood potential. But the overall signal appears
favorable for at least some heavier showers and thunderstorms during
the Tuesday-Thursday time frame.

Self

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Fri Jun 6 2025

A few spotty streamer showers have popped up across the coast west
of Galveston Bay. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail region-
wide through the day today, with winds out of the S to SSE around
the 10 kt range. Winds become light and variable tonight and
overnight before picking back up out of the S around 10-12 kts by
mid to late Saturday morning. Another VFR day is on tap for
Saturday with mostly clear skies. Some Saharan dust moving in late
tonight may cause conditions to be a bit hazy Saturday, but the
dust should be high enough off the ground that visibility will not
be affected.

McNeel

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1125 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Light to moderate onshore flow and relatively low seas are
expected through the middle of next week. However, seas could
be around 5 feet in the offshore open Gulf waters at times.Beach
conditions over the weekend will feature an enhanced rip current
risk along with hotter than normal temperatures. The pattern turns
more unsettled next week, with an increasing chance of rain and
thunderstorms. Heavier thunderstorms capable of locally higher
winds and seas are possible, especially starting Tuesday through
the end of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  93  76  95  76 /  10  10  10  10
Houston (IAH)  93  78  95  78 /  20  10  10   0
Galveston (GLS)  88  82  89  82 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Luchs
LONG TERM....Self
AVIATION...McNeel
MARINE...Self