543
FXUS64 KHGX 250509
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1109 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 1234 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

One more warm weather day is in store for SE Texas before a series
of cold fronts move through this week. For tonight, lows will be in
the 60s inland and in the low 70s along the coast under partly
cloudy skies. Gusty winds this afternoon will relax going into the
evening hours.

For Monday temperatures are set to reach into the 80s area wide
(Some locations looking to tie or break record highs) ahead of the
next cold front. FROPA is set to arrive around mid-afternoon to the
Brazos Valley, moving SE through the afternoon and offshore shortly
after midnight.

Cooler and drier air will surge in behind the cold front Monday
night, resulting in low temperatures in the 40s across the Brazos
Valley and Piney Woods and in the 50s closer to the Metro, Coastal
Plains, and the Islands. Not expecting this front to produce
rainfall inland. Isolated to scattered showers will be possible
offshore as the front moves over the Gulf Waters.

Adams

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 1234 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

We should wake up Tuesday with our cold front stalled offshore
while a sfc high builds southward over the central and southern
plains. For us in southeast Texas, this means northerly flow,
lower humidity, and cooler (near normal) temperatures. The
southern half of the CWA is expected to start the day in the 50s
while our northern counties are forecast to drop into the 40s. By
the afternoon, highs are expected to range from the mid/upper 60s
in our northern most counties to low/mid 70s elsewhere. The
aforementioned frontal boundary is expected to push northward by
Tuesday night, ushering in southerly flow and higher dew points.
Therefore, Tuesday night`s temperatures should not be as cool as
the night before. May have to contend with some fog if the winds
remain light.

By Wednesday, an area of low pressure is expected to develop over
Oklahoma before pushing northeastward. The resulting steepening
gradient will increase south to southwest flow, providing robust
WAA and LL moisture advection. Therefore, expect your Wednesday to
be breezy, humid, and quite warm with most areas likely warming back
into the 80s. The low pressure system`s associated cold front
surges southward and pushes across southeast Texas on Thanksgiving
Day. High temperatures for your Thanksgiving holiday may occur at
midnight or during the early morning hours before the front`s
passage. A ~1030MB sfc high is expected to build southward in the
front`s wake, setting up a relatively strong CAA regime over the
area. Yesterday, I talked about how Thanksgiving`s afternoon highs
were technically forecast to be in the 70s with the caveat that
an earlier FROPA would easily drop those temperatures
significantly. Well.... we are now forecasting the front to push
through during the morning hours which has dropped our expected
afternoon highs down into the 60s for most places. Generally high
stability and minimal synoptic lift should keep PoPs low as the
front pushes through. But couldn`t rule out a stray shower.

The coolest day of the long term is expected to be Friday with
highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s and lows from the mid 30s to mid
40s (near 50 at the coast). Models show the sfc high progressing
quickly eastward, placing us on the return flow side of the high
by Saturday. Therefore, we may be dealing with increasing
temperatures as well as rising LL moisture. We are indicating some
slight PoPs along with seasonably mild temps in the 60s and 70s.

Self

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1041 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

LLWS will exceed 20 knots throughout the overnight hours,
but should remain under TAF thresholds. Winds should veer
southwesterly and become gusty mid Monday morning ahead of an
approaching cold front. The cold front should reach KCLL late in
the afternoon, moving through KIAH around sunset then pushing off
the coast later that night. No precipitation is expected inland
with this FROPA. Breezy northerly winds develop in the wake of the
front.

03

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1234 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

Enhanced seas and south to southwest winds will continue into
tomorrow morning. Caution Flags have been issued for the Gulf
waters and Matagorda Bay. Conditions may approach, and briefly
reach, Small Craft Advisory levels (~20kt sustained winds, ~6 ft
seas) at times tonight over the Gulf waters. However, we have
opted to not issue an advisory since these conditions are not
expected to last long. Winds and seas should gradually decrease by
Monday afternoon, before increasing from the north Monday night
behind a passing cold front. Caution flags may be warranted Monday
night and Tuesday morning. Southwesterly winds and seas should
increase again by Wednesday into early Thursday ahead of the next
cold front. Strong northerly winds are expected behind the front
by Thursday afternoon. Winds may become more northeasterly on
Friday. Caution flags and advisories may need to be issued during
the Thursday to Friday time frame.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  64  85  46  69 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  66  86  53  72 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  72  79  59  71 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through Monday morning for
     GMZ330-350-355-370-375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Adams
LONG TERM....Self
AVIATION...03
MARINE...Self