584
FXUS64 KHGX 222250
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
450 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 333 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

The slow uptick in nighttime lows will continue tonight as
temperatures dip into the upper 30s across the Piney Woods, the low
to mid 40s north of I-10, and into the mid to upper 40s S of I-10.
Coastal locations will generally drop into the 50s to low 60s.

High pressure will continue an eastward progression, leading to a
more easterly to southeasterly flow for Saturday. The return of
moisture with this onshore flow will yield some upper level clouds
and an increase in daytime temperatures. Highs for Saturday will be
in the low to mid 70s east of I-45 and in the mid to upper 70s west
of I-45.

Lows for Saturday night will be "warmer" than what has been observed
the last few nights. Temperatures will be in the 50s for much of the
area, with the exception of the coast and southern counties which
will be in the low to mid 60s.

Adams

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 333 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

Onshore flow will continue to facilitate WAA and moisture advection
through Sunday, gradually raising PW above 1" by Monday of next
week. Lows for Sunday night/Monday morning should be in the 60s to
lower 70s along the coast. Highs are progged to peak during the day
on Monday, ranging from the upper 70s to upper 80s. PoPs through
this period remain slim due to insufficient forcing, though that is
expected to change as an upper level trough/closed low sweeps across
the Northern Plains/Southern Manitoba. This disturbance will push a
cold front into the Brazos Valley late Monday afternoon, later
pushing off the coast around or just after midnight.

The current suite of deterministic models & ensembles show good
agreement as to the timing of this FROPA. However, model guidance
has trended earlier with this first frontal passage over the last
few days. This is best demonstrated when looking at surface wind
direction among LREF ensemble members. Taking a look at College
Station at 6PM Monday, we can see that the number of members
favoring northerly, post-frontal flow has increased from past
runs, now comprising at least 51% of the ensemble members. If this
frontal passage continues to trend earlier, it is possible that
high temperatures could be impacted across portions of the Brazos
Valley/Piney Woods area for Monday. Lows for Monday night/Tuesday
morning should be in the mid 40s/upper 50s inland and lower 60s
along the coast. The best chances for showers will be over the
Gulf of Mexico as the front moves offshore.

Cooler conditions briefly settle in on Tuesday as high pressure
builds into the vicinity while the aforementioned cold front stalls
out offshore over the Gulf of Mexico. Tuesday night/Wednesday
morning, surface high pressure drifts east, allowing the boundary
to lift north as a warm front. WAA/moisture advection resumes,
bringing isolated showers and warmer conditions for Wednesday with
highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s and lows in the 50s/60s.

For Thanksgiving (next Thursday), a shortwave trough traversing the
Plains and a deepening upper level low over Ontario/Quebec may push
a stronger cold front through SE Texas. This could bring scattered
showers/isolated storms, along with cooler and breezy conditions in
it`s wake. There`s even a chance that portions of the Brazos Valley
& Piney Woods area could see their first freeze of the season during
the early morning hours of Friday or Saturday. Models have been
trending cooler with this second front, but there is still a lot of
uncertainty at this point in the forecast. We`ll continue to monitor
how conditions evolve over these next few days.

03

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 450 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

Light northerly to northeasterly winds will become light and
variable around or shortly after sunset. In the mid-morning hours
on Saturday, winds will pick up out of the east to southeast
around 5-8 knots gradually becoming more southeasterly throughout
the day. VFR conditions will prevail throughout the entire TAF
period.

Batiste/Sandifer

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 333 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

Winds will slowly veer southeasterly overnight into Saturday, later
strengthening into Sunday as the next weather system develops
across the Plains. Caution flags and Small Craft Advisories could
be needed on Sunday and portions of Monday. A cold front will push
off the coast early Tuesday morning, bringing isolated
showers/storms before stalling further offshore. This boundary
will lift north early Wednesday morning as a warm front. Onshore
winds and seas increase throughout Wednesday, possibly
necessitating additional caution flags and Small Craft Advisories.
A second stronger cold front is expected to push across the
region on Thanksgiving (Thursday). Strong offshore winds and high
seas will likely develop in the wake of this front.

03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  43  75  55  82 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  46  74  57  81 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  62  73  68  79 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Adams
LONG TERM....03
AVIATION...Batiste
MARINE...03