Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
068 FXUS64 KHGX 020514 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1214 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1234 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025 - Rain chance decline today, with tranquil weather expected Wednesday through Friday. - Strengthening onshore winds will bring greater moisture and increasing rain chances over the weekend into next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1210 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025 While the front has pushed off the coast, PWs still remain 1.4-2.0 inches over the area. With lingering moisture and a few week impulses progged to pass over the area, scattered showers/storms will be on the tap again today. The greatest rain chances/coverage should be south of the I-10 corridor, though a few storms to the north cannot be ruled out (per today`s activity). Still, drier air will be filtering in from the north as the frontal boundary is reinforced and pushed deeper into the Gulf. This leaves us with declining PoPs, drier and overall more benign weather from Wednesday through Friday. Just as we`ve seen before, we`ll be trading rain chances for warmer temperatures with highs climbing into the mid/lower 90s by Friday. Steady onshore flow is re-estabilished on Friday, allowing moisture to rapidly rise above 1.75 inches heading into the weekend. Model guidance shows another cold front approaching the area from the north this weekend, though stalling before reaching SE Texas (at least in the current suite of model guidance). Even if the boundary doesn`t enter our area, a series of shortwaves/weaker impulses will be passing over the area and in the vicinity. This will re-intorduce rain chances to the forecast with more rounds of showers and thunderstorms over the weekend through Monday of next week. Much like before, the extra cloud cover and rainfall will pull down afternoon temperatures, bringing afternoon highs down into the lower 90s on Saturday, then upper 80s on Sunday and Monday. 03 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 602 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025 Lingering showers and storms will continue to decrease in coverage going into the evening hours, but may linger through 02-03Z especially south of I-10. Winds will become light and variable overnight, but expect another round of scattered showers/storms to develop near the coast after 09Z. For now, this is covered with VCSH at LBX/GLS and the majority of the convection is expected to occur offshore. Also occuring overnight is the potential for patchy fog due to rainfall from earlier today in areas where cloud cover manages to clear out. This is most likely to occur over northern areas, so a few TEMPO`s have been added to a few of the northern terminals to cover the potential for reduced visibilities. On Tuesday afternoon, some spotty showers and maybe even an isolated storm or two will be possible but the potential looks too low to include it in any of the TAFs beyond the early Tuesday morning convection. Expect winds to start out northeasterly and become easterly going into the afternoon with wind speeds remaining generally between 4-8 kt. Batiste && .MARINE... Issued at 1210 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025 The stalled frontal boundary over the coastal waters will bring scattered showers and storms today, decreasing tonight into Wednesday as the frontal boundary is pushed deeper into the Gulf. Elevated winds and sea may occur in and around thunderstorms. Drier conditions, light variable winds and low seas are expected through the end of the work week. Rain chances return next weekend, persisting into early next week. 03 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 91 71 92 68 / 10 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 91 74 93 73 / 20 0 10 0 Galveston (GLS) 89 79 91 79 / 40 10 10 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...03 AVIATION...Batiste MARINE...03