Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
346 FXUS64 KHGX 221115 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 615 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1209 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025 - Showers/thunderstorms continue today, some capable of producing locally heavy rainfall possible. - Rain chances lower over the weekend, but should rise again next week as another weak boundary approaches the area. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1209 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025 Another day of wetter conditions is on the tap today as a weak surface boundary remains in the vicinity while a number of shortwaves pass overhead. Combined with deep moisture and the slew of mesoscale boundary interactions, SE Texas should see conditions similar to that of yesterday. CAMs are showing greater coverage with showers/storms this afternoon than in previous runs, though it still may be a tad underdone. The environment remains conducive for high precipitation efficiency, which may result in some strong downpours and possibly locally heavy rainfall at times. WPC still has SE Texas under a Marginal (level 1/4) Risk of Excessive rainfall for today, generally for areas south of Huntsville and closer to the coast. Most areas should see less than half an inch of rainfall, though any stronger storms could produce locally higher totals up to 2-3" in some isolated spots, much like what occurred yesterday. Ridging over the Desert Southwest should strengthen over the weekend. Saturday could still see some modest shower/storm coverage, especially as models are now keeping deep moisture in place over SE Texas a tad longer than previously forecast. CAMs may still be underdoing activity during this period slightly, though most showers/storms should be confined to the coastline/nearshore waters. Still, PoPs trend downward throughout the course of the weekend, with high temperatures gradually trending upwards. An upper level low/trough over the Great Lakes/Quebec/Ontario is progged to push another frontal boundary & round of shortwaves towards SE Texas around the Tuesday/Wednesday next week. With this, the forecast reverses course, trading heat for greater rain chances through Thursday as this weak boundary stalls out over our area. 03 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 606 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025 Trof axis and remnant outflows lit back up near the coast overnight. Some rain and isolated thunder extends into the metro area. Suspect we`ll see a lull in activity as we head into mid morning followed by more scattered development inland this afternoon...which should eventually sag back toward the metro area later in the day and coastal areas this evening. Hires models have been struggling to keep up, but considering the pattern remains about the same and most is driven on the small scale and boundary interactions, it`s not overly surprising. The more robust cells have had a history of producing strong wind gusts, reduced visibility in heavy downpours...and today will likely not be much different. So other than knowing there will be some storms around, pinpointing the specifics at any individual terminal is difficult to say the least. Outside of convective activity, VFR conditions and light winds will be the rule. Rinse/repeat tonight- Saturday. 47 && .MARINE... Issued at 1209 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025 Conditions will be fairly calm with 1-3 ft seas and seabreeze- landbreeze driven winds around 5-10 knots (offshore/northwesterly early in the morning, then onshore/southeasterly in the afternoon). Isolated to scattered showers and storms will be a daily possibility, primarily during the daytime hours. Coverage of showers/storms should be greatest today and early this weekend due to a weak boundary near the coast. Rain chances later decrease over the weekend. Locally higher winds and seas are expected near any thunderstorms that develop. 03 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 92 73 93 72 / 40 10 20 10 Houston (IAH) 91 75 91 75 / 60 40 60 20 Galveston (GLS) 90 80 90 81 / 70 70 70 40 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...03 AVIATION...47 MARINE...03