451
FXUS64 KHGX 061034
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
534 AM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered to widespread storms are anticipated again on Sunday.

- Though isolated to scattered precipitation is expected on a
  daily basis during the early and mid parts of next week, overall
  areal coverage should be a bit less...and we`ll see some warmer
  temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1034 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

Showers and thunderstorms have dissipated for the night, but the
break is expected to be short-lived as an upper-level low
approaches and deep moisture continues to filter in. Hi-Res models
suggest a few showers could develop along the coast and in the
Gulf Waters during the early morning hours. Expect activity to
spread inward and become more scattered to widespread in coverage
through the day, with thunderstorms developing as daytime heating
kicks in this afternoon. With the abundant moisture still
overhead and light winds aloft, some storms could be slow moving
and produce locally heavy rainfall, leading to isolated instances
of flooding.

Ridging will build back in early in the work-week, bringing hotter
conditions and a decrease in rain chances compared to this past
week. Daily isolated showers and thunderstorms will remain
possible and will be largely diurnally driven through mid-week.
Highs during this time will reach into the low to mid-90s inland,
with heat indices in the 102-109F range.

A few of the global models continue to suggest increasing chances
of showers and thunderstorms near the end of the week as a weak
mid-level disturbance approaches from the Gulf. There is variation
among the models with regard to strength and timing of the
disturbance; however, models and ensemble guidance both suggest an
uptick in moisture during this time frame. Currently the highest
probabilities for precipitation reside over the coastal counties
and Gulf waters, particularly during the afternoon hours. This
pattern appears to stay through the weekend.

Bailey

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 534 AM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Showers have begun to develop along the coast early this morning,
and model trends point towards gradually increasing coverage near
LBX/GLS through the morning. Additional convection is expected
again this afternoon with IAH and sites southward having the
highest probabilities for convective impacts. TEMPOs reflect the
window of when convection is most active, but lingering
showers/storms may persist till 01-02Z before dissipating with the
loss of daytime heating. Some storms may be capable of producing
locally heavy rainfall (reduced visibilities/ceilings) and gusty
winds. Outside of any convection, light southeasterly winds around
4-8 kt in the daytime then becoming light and variable overnight.
Cannot entirely rule out intermittent periods of reduced
visibilities due to patchy fog early Monday morning.

Batiste

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1034 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

Daily scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue across the
Upper Texas Coast this weekend into next week. These storms will
be capable of producing heavy downpours as well as frequent
lightning and erratic winds. Building seas will also be possible
near stronger storms. Otherwise, expect light to occasionally
moderate onshore winds with 2-3 foot seas to prevail through late
next week

Bailey

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  95  76  98  76 /  60   0  10   0
Houston (IAH)  93  78  96  79 /  60  10  20   0
Galveston (GLS)  90  82  91  83 /  50  10  20   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Bailey
AVIATION...Batiste
MARINE...Bailey