383
FXUS64 KHGX 121653
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1153 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1257 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

- Chances for scattered showers and storms continues through the
  weekend and into early next week. A few storms could produce
  locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds.

- Increased rip current risk over the weekend along the Gulf-
  facing beaches.

- Forecast trending drier after the middle of next week and may
  lead to an increasing trend in temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1257 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Have any outdoor plans over the weekend? If you answered yes, then
you`ll want to keep an umbrella or poncho nearby. If you answered no
and you`re a fan of naps, then you`ll have a shot at perfect napping
weather. Elevated PW values (near or above 2.0") combined with PVA
from a passing shortwave as a generally trough-y pattern over the
Central/Southern Plains continues will lead to continuous rain
chances over the weekend. Rain chances will peak during the
afternoon hours as daytime heating along with sea/bay breeze
interactions become prevalent. Exact coverage is still tough to
gauge, but the latest HREF reflects most of the higher-end rainfall
totals to occur along or north of I-10 for both Saturday and Sunday.
This is also a good time to mention that there will continue to be
the potential for locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds in any of
the stronger storms that develop. As a result of the increased rain
chances over the weekend, we can expect high temperatures to
continue to top out in the low to mid 90s with low temperatures in
the mid to upper 70s (low 80s along the coast).

Rain chances continue going into early next week, but do look to go
on a decreasing trend. This is due to the mid level trough evolving
into a cutoff low around the Oklahoma/Kansas border. PVA in our
region will be subsequently limited and doubly so with a gradually
expanding mid level high pressure that will be centered over the
southeastern CONUS. Temperatures do look to go on a warming trend
beyond the middle of next week, but based on recent history I`m
taking this with a little grain of salt.

When I was on the forecast desk last week, the temperatures
for literally right now were supposed to be in the mid to upper
90s...and the same thing happened the week before that as well. The
forecast has been calling for these hotter temperatures to arrive
towards the end of the forecast period, but so far it hasn`t
actually materialized. As a matter of fact, the latest NBM actually
backed off on high temperatures reaching the upper 90s after
midweek and is now showing mid 90s. There are some hints in
deterministic model guidance that mid level high pressure (AKA
heat dome) could slide in overhead, but there is also some
guidance that keeps it to our east. So this kind of feels like an
"I`ll believe it when I see it" situation. All that being said,
it`s still going to be hot and in the 90s...the main question is
are we looking at low to mid 90s or mid to upper 90s? If the mid
level high moves overhead like in the ECMWF, we`d have the mid to
upper 90s. If the mid level high remains centered to our east
like in the Canadian, we`d see low to mid 90s. Either way, it`s
still July...high temperatures in the upper 90s will happen
eventually.

Batiste

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1149 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

VFR conditions across the area currently. TSRA firing up outside
the vicinity of terminals. Chance of TS remains possible at all
sites with the exception of CLL (chance too low to warrant a
mention in TAF). Brief MVFR CIGs anticipated overnight into the
mid-morning hours for CLL/CXO. Low end VFR CIGs anticipated
elsewhere overnight through mid-morning. Winds generally out of
the south through the period. Similar conditions expected for
Sunday afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1257 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Light to occasionally moderate onshore flow will persist through
next week. Southeasterly winds today have been more on the moderate
side with winds between 15-20 kt leading to the issuance of caution
flags for the Gulf waters through Saturday morning. This extended
period of onshore flow will lead to an elevated risk of rip
currents going into the weekend, so be sure to take the proper
precautions if visiting any Gulf-facing beaches. With winds
elevated today and into early Saturday, offshore seas have already
increased to 4-5 ft and may reach 5-6 ft overnight. Seas will
then subside to around 2-4 ft Sunday and into next week. Daily
chances for scattered showers and storms continue into early next
week, and some of these storms will be capable of producing
locally heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and elevated seas.

Batiste

Beach conditions: Use extra caution this weekend as there is an
increased risk of rip currents along all Gulf-facing beaches. Always
follow beach flag systems, swim near a lifeguard and away from piers
and jetties.

JM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  91  75  92  75 /  50  10  30  10
Houston (IAH)  91  77  92  77 /  60  10  50  10
Galveston (GLS)  90  82  90  83 /  50  10  30  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 1 PM CDT this
     afternoon for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Batiste
AVIATION...Adams
MARINE...Batiste