585
FXUS64 KHGX 261134
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
634 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 600 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025

- Chances of showers/thunderstorms continue over the weekend.

- Drier and warmer conditions on Monday through Wednesday. Rising
  heat risk of moderate to near major levels.

- Wetter/slightly cooler conditions Thursday through the end of the
  upcoming work week from another approaching disturbance.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025

A midlevel low/trough continues to push west through the western
Gulf early this weekend, supplying sufficient PVA/impulses for
shower/thunderstorm development. CAMs broadly show showers/storms
focused near the coast around sunrise, later shifting further inland
as the day progresses. PWs of 2.0 - 2.5 inches remain present over
the region with the broader environment still conducive for high
precipitation efficiency. This means that locally heavy rainfall
will still be possible with the Weather Prediction Center
maintaining a Marginal Risk (level 1/4) of Excessive Rainfall on
Saturday. Ponding on roadways and minor urban flooding are possible
and commonly seen in situations such as this.

The aforementioned midlevel low continues westward on Sunday while
high pressure begins to slide in behind it from the SE CONUS. We`ll
see PWs drop under 2.0 inches during this period as drier air
filters in. That, with the midlevel ridge reaching 596-599 dam will
result in slim rain chances Monday through mid next week. While
Sunday`s high temperatures aren`t the warmest in the forecast
(mid/lower 90s), lingering tropical moisture is poised to bring
rather humid conditions during the afternoon with dewpoints in the
upper 70s/80s. Drier air brings some relief early next week, though
highs are anticipated to reach the mid/upper 90s, possibly the 100
degree mark, on Tuesday/Wednesday. Still, heat indices each day
throughout this time frame should remain in the triple digits during
the afternoon. Heat Risk broadly remains moderate early on, though
could near major levels around the mid week period depending on the
efficiency of afternoon mixing. Heat advisories aren`t completely
off the table during those days.

Rain chances pick up again late Wednesday/early Thursday morning as
another area of low pressure pushes westward across the northern
Gulf. The ridge over Texas should weaken as this disturbance draws
closer to our area. Just as we`ve seen before for the last several
weeks, an influx of Gulf Moisture and Vorticity from this
disturbance should bring scattered showers/storms and lower highs by
the end of the work week.

03

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 600 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025

A moist atmosphere has led to some periods of MVFR (to even IFR)
conditions during the overnight period with CIGs down to
500-1200ft and patchy fog. Now that the sun is rising, those
conditions will shortly clear out giving way to a mostly VFR day,
with the exception of where ever showers and thunderstorms develop
this afternoon. Speaking of, there will be isolated to scattered
showers developing along the coast through the mid-morning, then
expanding further inland through the afternoon with the addition
of isolated thunderstorms. Figuring out exactly where the storms
will develop is difficult, so have kept the PROB30s of TS
generally between 17-23z (the coast will be on the earlier side of
that, while northern terminals like UTS will be on the later).
Locally heavy rainfall that reduces visibility and gusty wind
will be possible with these isolated storms. Otherwise, south to
southeasterly winds will persist today, around 5-8kts inland and
around 8-12kt at the coast.

MVFR conditions may return tonight to the northern terminals due
to saturated soils, but again clearing out after sunrise Sunday.
Additional showers and storms will be possible Sunday afternoon,
but with much less coverage than today or yesterday.

Fowler

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025

Southerly winds should develop overnight/early Saturday, reaching 10-
20 knots behind a passing surface low. The highest of these winds/
seas should generally be east of Freeport, thus will maintain
caution flags through the late morning hours of Saturday. More
rounds of showers/thunderstorms can be expected through the end of
the week, with some of these storms capable of producing strong
wind gusts, lightening and low visibility from heavy downpours. High
pressure fills in from the east next week to usher in calmer weather
with 1-3 ft seas and landbreeze-seabreeze driven winds.

03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  90  76  94  74 /  40  20  20   0
Houston (IAH)  88  78  92  77 /  60  10  40   0
Galveston (GLS)  90  84  91  84 /  60  20  30   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 10 AM CDT this morning
     for GMZ335-355-375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...03
AVIATION...Fowler
MARINE...03