494
FXUS64 KHGX 052015
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
315 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered to widespread showers and storms are expected through
  this evening. Locally heavy downpours and gusty winds are the
  primary risks.

- Scattered to widespread storms are anticipated again on Sunday.

- Though isolated to scattered precipitation is expected on a
  daily basis during the early and mid parts of next week, overall
  areal coverage should be a bit less...and we`ll see some warmer
  temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 159 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

Mid to upper level low continues to spin over southwestern LA and
southeastern TX today. At the surface, east to southeast flow
continues to bring a warm and more humid Gulf airmass, keeping the
region with PWATs into the 2 - 2.3 inches range. Therefore,
widespread scattered showers and isolated storms are expected to
spread further inland this afternoon. Peak daytime heating and the
interaction of the seabreeze with any outflow boundaries will
support more scattered thunderstorms inland through early this
evening. Deep low to mid level moisture will support localized
heavy downpours this afternoon, which could lead to flooding. A
Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall continues today for most of
Southeast Texas (Day 1- WPC Outlook).

The aforementioned upper low will approach even closer to our region
on Sunday. Hi-res guidance continues to suggest even deeper moisture
filtering into Southeast TX later tonight into Sunday with PWATs
running up to 2.4 inches. Therefore, scattered to widespread
activity is forecast with convection starting as early as near
sunrise. As the day progresses, instability, moisture, and various
outflow interactions will maintain thunderstorm chances through
early Sunday evening. These storms will also be capable of producing
heavy downpours, potentially leading to localized flooding.

Monday through at least midweek, looks hotter with daily rain and
storm chances. A mid to upper lvl ridge centered across the
central/southern Plains will expand slightly southward into our
region, bringing some drier air/subsidence across Southeast TX. This
will result in lower rain/storm chances, which will be isolated to
scattered in coverage; particularly for our northern counties.
Temperatures early next week are forecast to reach the low to mid
90s, with the warmest readings across our far northern and western
counties. Heat indices in the 102 to 109F range are expected.

Medium range guidance continues to suggest increased rain and storm
chances towards the end of the work week as a weak mid-level
disturbance over the north-central/northwestern Gulf moves westward
into the region. This disturbance is progged to bring an uptick in
moisture, with the highest probabilities over the coastal counties
and coastal waters, especially in the afternoon when combined with
seabreezes interaction. With lingering moisture across the region,
and our typical mesoscale features, rain/storm chances will continue
well into the upcoming weekend with isolated to scattered afternoon
convection.

JM

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

Scattered showers and isolated storms will continue through the
afternoon, then later taper off into the evening. Light variable
winds are expected overnight with patchy fog/low CIGs possible early
Sunday morning, though FL reductions should be short lived.
Showers will develop over the Gulf waters early Sunday morning,
slowly moving inland with thunderstorms forming as the day
progresses. Timing for these showers/storms is less certain. Some
TAF sites could see these showers/storms arrive several hours
earlier compared to previous days... thus have opted to widen the
window for VCSH/TSRA.

03

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 159 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

Upper level disturbances over the northwestern Gulf will continue to
bring a daily risk of scattered showers and thunderstorms across the
Upper TX coast this weekend and into the week. These storms will be
capable of producing heavy downpours and frequent lightning as the
primary risks with the storms; however, erratic winds and building
seas cannot be ruled out near any strong storms. Otherwise, light to
occasionally moderate onshore winds and seas into the 2 to 3 ft
range will prevail through late next week.

JM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  75  95  75  97 /  30  40   0  20
Houston (IAH)  77  94  78  95 /  50  50  10  40
Galveston (GLS)  82  91  82  91 /  40  50  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...03
MARINE...JM