Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
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899 FXUS64 KHGX 242319 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 519 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday Night) Issued at 1234 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024 One more warm weather day is in store for SE Texas before a series of cold fronts move through this week. For tonight, lows will be in the 60s inland and in the low 70s along the coast under partly cloudy skies. Gusty winds this afternoon will relax going into the evening hours. For Monday temperatures are set to reach into the 80s area wide (Some locations looking to tie or break record highs) ahead of the next cold front. FROPA is set to arrive around mid-afternoon to the Brazos Valley, moving SE through the afternoon and offshore shortly after midnight. Cooler and drier air will surge in behind the cold front Monday night, resulting in low temperatures in the 40s across the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods and in the 50s closer to the Metro, Coastal Plains, and the Islands. Not expecting this front to produce rainfall inland. Isolated to scattered showers will be possible offshore as the front moves over the Gulf Waters. Adams && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through next Saturday) Issued at 1234 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024 We should wake up Tuesday with our cold front stalled offshore while a sfc high builds southward over the central and southern plains. For us in southeast Texas, this means northerly flow, lower humidity, and cooler (near normal) temperatures. The southern half of the CWA is expected to start the day in the 50s while our northern counties are forecast to drop into the 40s. By the afternoon, highs are expected to range from the mid/upper 60s in our northern most counties to low/mid 70s elsewhere. The aforementioned frontal boundary is expected to push northward by Tuesday night, ushering in southerly flow and higher dew points. Therefore, Tuesday night`s temperatures should not be as cool as the night before. May have to contend with some fog if the winds remain light. By Wednesday, an area of low pressure is expected to develop over Oklahoma before pushing northeastward. The resulting steepening gradient will increase south to southwest flow, providing robust WAA and LL moisture advection. Therefore, expect your Wednesday to be breezy, humid, and quite warm with most areas likely warming back into the 80s. The low pressure system`s associated cold front surges southward and pushes across southeast Texas on Thanksgiving Day. High temperatures for your Thanksgiving holiday may occur at midnight or during the early morning hours before the front`s passage. A ~1030MB sfc high is expected to build southward in the front`s wake, setting up a relatively strong CAA regime over the area. Yesterday, I talked about how Thanksgiving`s afternoon highs were technically forecast to be in the 70s with the caveat that an earlier FROPA would easily drop those temperatures significantly. Well.... we are now forecasting the front to push through during the morning hours which has dropped our expected afternoon highs down into the 60s for most places. Generally high stability and minimal synoptic lift should keep PoPs low as the front pushes through. But couldn`t rule out a stray shower. The coolest day of the long term is expected to be Friday with highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s and lows from the mid 30s to mid 40s (near 50 at the coast). Models show the sfc high progressing quickly eastward, placing us on the return flow side of the high by Saturday. Therefore, we may be dealing with increasing temperatures as well as rising LL moisture. We are indicating some slight PoPs along with seasonably mild temps in the 60s and 70s. Self && .AVIATION... (00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 511 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024 Winds diminish this evening, veering southwesterly and becoming gusty once again mid Monday morning ahead of an approaching cold front. LLWS will exceed 20 knots throughout the overnight hours, but should remain under TAF thresholds. The cold front should reach KCLL late in the afternoon, moving through KIAH around sunset then pushing off the coast later that night. No precipitation is expected inland with this FROPA. Light to moderate, gusty northerly winds develop in the wake of the front. 03 && .MARINE... Issued at 1234 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024 Enhanced seas and south to southwest winds will continue into tomorrow morning. Caution Flags have been issued for the Gulf waters and Matagorda Bay. Conditions may approach, and briefly reach, Small Craft Advisory levels (~20kt sustained winds, ~6 ft seas) at times tonight over the Gulf waters. However, we have opted to not issue an advisory since these conditions are not expected to last long. Winds and seas should gradually decrease by Monday afternoon, before increasing from the north Monday night behind a passing cold front. Caution flags may be warranted Monday night and Tuesday morning. Southwesterly winds and seas should increase again by Wednesday into early Thursday ahead of the next cold front. Strong northerly winds are expected behind the front by Thursday afternoon. Winds may become more northeasterly on Friday. Caution flags and advisories may need to be issued during the Thursday to Friday time frame. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 64 85 46 69 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 66 86 53 72 / 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 72 79 59 71 / 0 0 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through late tonight for GMZ330-350-355-370-375. && $$ SHORT TERM...Adams LONG TERM....Self AVIATION...03 MARINE...Self