Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
273 FXUS64 KHGX 031655 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1155 AM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1155 AM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025 - Drier air in control through the end of the work week leading to pleasant conditions especially in the mornings/evenings. - Hot temperatures with low humidity can be expected mainly on Thursday and Friday with highs in the mid to upper 90s. - Rain chances return over the weekend and into early next week as moisture increases ahead of a frontal boundary. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1155 AM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025 Another weak reinforcing frontal boundary is currently making its way through Southeast Texas as drier air continues to funnel its way in. Satellite derived PW values as of ~12pm this afternoon range from 1.2-1.4", but late this afternoon we could see PW values near or below 1.0" across the Brazos Valley and the Piney Woods! Just for context, the 10th percentile is around 1.07" so we are definitely drier than normal. Temperatures this afternoon will top out in the low to mid 90s and there is potential for isolated showers/storms later this afternoon mainly near and south of I-10. Tonight is when we feel the full benefits of that drier air as temperatures drop down into the upper 60s to low 70s for inland areas. Areas in closer proximity to the bays and the Gulf will have enough lingering humidity to keep low temperatures in the mid to upper 70s. We crank up the heat on Thursday as 850mb temperatures reach their 90th percentiles alongside westerly to southwesterly winds prevailing at the surface into the early afternoon hours. Temperatures will peak into the mid to upper 90s on both Thursday and Friday, but Thursday will definitely be the hottest of the two days. It`ll be a dry heat for most...but those along the coast will have enough lingering moisture for heat index values to peak in the 103-106F range. We`ll have slightly more moisture in place on Friday as onshore flow returns, so temperatures will be a degree or two lower...but heat index values areawide will be in the 102-105F range. Not high enough for an advisory, but high enough for a reminder to continue to practice heat safety even as we are in meteorological fall. Temperatures decrease going into the weekend and that can only mean one thing...well not THAT one thing. It means that rain chances will be on the rise and that deserves its own extended paragraph...or two. Our eyes are technically on the tropics, but on the East Pacific side. There`s no need to panic though as it`s only relevant for our rainfall potential over the weekend and into early next week. Hurricane Lorena is expected to make landfall along the Baja Peninsula (as a tropical storm) on Friday. The official forecast from NHC along with the majority of the model guidance takes the center/remnants of Lorena into northern Mexico where it may get swept southeastward into southern New Mexico/west Texas ahead of an approaching frontal boundary. Saying that there is A LOT of uncertainty with this would be an understatement. For now though, we can say that moisture is at least expected to increase and a frontal boundary is expected to approach the region but will initially linger to our northeast. As a result, rain chances will be increasing over the weekend and into early next week. If the bulk of the deeper tropical moisture manages to slide into Southeast Texas along with the lingering shortwave energy from the remnants of Lorena moving directly overhead in combination with perfect positioning of that frontal boundary, then we could potentially see some rounds of heavy rainfall. There is also the possibility that the bulk of that moisture and PVA stays to our west and/or the frontal boundary isn`t positioned directly over us. In that scenario, we`d be left with just scattered afternoon showers/storms south of the boundary. It`s far too early to have any sort of certainty one way or the other, but this is definitely something worth monitoring. WPC already has essentially the entire state of Texas in a marginal risk (level 1 out of 4) for excessive rainfall on Sunday (Day 5). We will continue to monitor trends in the model guidance (both ensembles and deterministic) and provide updates as things hopefully become a bit more clear as we approach the weekend. Batiste && .AVIATION... (12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 647 AM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025 KCXO at MVFR with VSBYs. All other sites at VFR. VFR prevailing through the day. Winds will be light out of the NNE through the morning, becoming ENE this afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 1155 AM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025 The period of benign marine conditions persists with light winds and low seas prevailing going into the weekend. An isolated shower or storm can`t be ruled out over the next couple of days, but overall expect the drier air to remain in control. Chances for showers and storms return over the weekend and into early next week as moisture increases ahead of an approaching frontal boundary. Expect winds and seas to see an increase as well heading into early next week. Batiste && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 70 98 74 96 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 74 97 76 95 / 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 81 92 82 92 / 20 0 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Batiste AVIATION...Adams MARINE...Batiste