733
FXUS64 KHGX 070535
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1235 AM CDT Wed May 7 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 345 PM CDT Tue May 6 2025

- TORNADO WATCH 231 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
  PORTIONS OF SE TX.
- FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.

As of 3 PM this afternoon, a line of strong showers and
thunderstorms was slowly moving southward over the Brazos Valley
and Piney Woods region. This line of storms is expected to
continue to move southward, into the central areas of SE Texas and
Houston Metro area during the evening and early night hours. Some
of these storms may become strong to severe, capable of producing
damaging winds, hail, and tornadoes. In addition, heavy rainfall
can be associated with this line and may lead to minor flooding in
streets and low-lying/poor drainage areas. SPC continues an
Enhanced Risk (level 3 of 5) for severe weather for most areas
north of I-10 and a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for most areas
south of I-10 through late tonight. There could be another watch
issued within the next hour or so. WPC has a Moderate Risk (level
3 of 4) for excessive rainfall mostly over the Piney Woods region
and a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) for the rest of the region.

Most of the shower and storm activity overnight into early
Wednesday morning is expected to linger mostly over areas near
and south of I-10 as well as the coastal Gulf waters. A cold front
will slowly move across SE Texas on Wednesday and conditions look
fairly good for another round or two of strong to severe storms,
mostly for areas south of I-10. Severe storms may be capable of
producing strong gusty winds, hail, isolated tornadoes, and
periods of heavy rainfall. A Flood Watch could be issued for our
southern portions (mostly south of I-10) depending on how
saturated the soil gets tonight and how much rain is expected for
the day. Although chances will decrease Wednesday night, we could
still see some isolated to scattered showers and storms pass
through from time to time. One caveat is that there is a small
chance most of this activity stays over the coastal waters,
similar to the 18Z HRRR run, which would lead to less rainfall
totals inland. SPC has a Slight Chance (level 2 of 5) of severe
weather over areas west of I-45 and south of I-10, and a Marginal
Risk (level 1 of 5) for the rest of the area, except the Piney
Woods region. WPC has a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) for excessive
rainfall for Harris (including Houston Metro), Fort Bend,
Brazoria, Southern Montgomery, Liberty, Galveston, and Chambers
counties as well as a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for counties
south of a line from southern Washington County through Polk
County.

Make sure to have multiple ways of receiving weather alerts and
warnings and keep an eye on the radar. Be prepared to take shelter
fast, if a tornado or severe storm warning is issued for your
area. Never cross flooded roadways.

Cotto (24)

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 345 PM CDT Tue May 6 2025

The frontal boundary will be meandering near the coast by Thursday.
Aloft, different impulses of energy/shortwaves will continue to move
overhead as the main upper low moves across the Middle/Lower MS
Valley. With PWs still into the 1.5 to 1.9 inches roughly over the
coastal counties; scattered showers and thunderstorms will be
possible. Rain and storm chances continue overnight as a stronger
shortwave develops over west/central TX and moves across the Middle
TX coast Thursday night into Friday. Surface high pressure builds in
for the weekend, bringing a drier forecast. However, daily rain and
storm chances are possible along the coast due to the influence of
the upper-level low in the vicinity.

Temperatures will remain near to slightly below normal for this time
of year, thanks to persistent north surface flow in the wake of the
front. Warmer and more humid conditions return early next week as
the surface high shifts eastward and onshore winds resume. This will
result in near to slightly above temperatures for the upcoming week.

JM

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Wed May 7 2025

A lull in the rain and storms overnight, with a mix of MVFR to VFR
conditions across the area, at least for a few hours. MVFR to high
IFR should emerge closer to dawn with generally northerly winds
inland and southerly winds at the coast, with more variable winds
between the two. Around dawn, SHRA/TSRA will begin to fill back
in. Latest models suggest this will be mostly offshore and at the
coast, so have TEMPOs at LBX and GLS, and PROB30s for HOU and SGR.

Later in the day, should see a return to VFR while winds become
more easterly across the area. Expect another round of SHRA/TSRA
in the afternoon. Again, offshore should be the focus, with
greater uncertainty for how far inland actually sees development,
so opt for PROB30s for TSRA inland to IAH. As these storms
actually set up, will be much easier to refine coverage and step
from PROB30 to TEMPO or prevailing if needed. Farther inland, VFR
prevails!

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 345 PM CDT Tue May 6 2025

Moderate to occasionally strong onshore winds and seas of 4-7
feet are expected through Wed morning. Small Craft Advisory will
continue in effect through late tonight. Strong rip currents and
elevated water levels, especially during high tide, is also
expected through Wed. Winds will become more easterly Wed
afternoon as the next cold front moves across SE Texas. Winds
become offshore Thu night into early next week. Expect periods of
showers and storms can be expected daily through the upcoming
weekend. Some storms could lead to strong gusty winds, frequent
lightning, and elevated seas.

Cotto (24)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  84  66  83  62 /  20  20  10  10
Houston (IAH)  83  69  86  66 /  50  30  30  30
Galveston (GLS)  80  73  82  71 /  80  40  40  40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT early this morning for TXZ163-164-
     176>179-195>200-300.

     Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT early this morning for
     GMZ350-355.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for GMZ370-375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cotto -24-
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...Cotto -24-