296
FXUS64 KHGX 051059
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
559 AM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1211 AM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

- Scattered showers with a few thunderstorms are expected on
Saturday with the best chances west of I-45.

- The next best chance for rain and storms returns Monday and
Tuesday with the arrival of a disturbance from the east.

- Temperatures will trend upward towards the second half of the
  week, with highs generally in the upper 90s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1211 AM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

Mid to upper level disturbances moving slowly across central TX will
continue to introduce subtle forcing/vort maxes locally. Dynamic
aloft combined with increased moisture are resulting with light
showers late this evening, likely continuing overnight. These
disturbances will continue their southeastward trajectory into
portions of SE TX on Saturday, before finally moving away from the
region by late afternoon/early evening. Having said that, scattered
showers can be expected, with the best focus in areas west of I-45,
which is where the best moisture axis will persist. Upper-level
forcing will interact with the developing seabreeze and increasing
daytime heating after midday. This will enhance the potential for
isolated thunderstorm development in the afternoon hours. Showers
and storms should be ending by early evening as the main upper-
forcing moves southward, coinciding with the loss of daytime
heating.

Surface high pressure builds overhead by Sunday, bringing a slightly
drier airmass and more stable conditions. However, isolated showers
and storms cannot be ruled out in the afternoon with the peak of
daytime heating and seabreeze interaction.

The next focus will be to our west as a surface trough and
associated mid-upper lvl trough develops and moves westward along
north-central Gulf. This trough is progged to reach the Upper TX
coast on Monday, moving further inland during the day. Increasing
PVA with height (good dynamic aloft), low to mid level moisture and
diurnal heating will be enough to produce scattered showers and
storms at least through Tuesday.

Weather conditions will become more stable after mid-week, as the
upper-level ridge strengthens across the southern CONUS. Southeast
TX will be positioned between two upper ridging, bringing some
height weakness across the region. There is still uncertainty
between models this far out. For now, despite strong subsidence
aloft, isolated showers and storms cannot ruled out. A 15 to 20
percent chance of PoPs will continue through the end of the week.
Temperature-wise, with a strong ridge and lower rain chances/cloud
cover, expect even hotter temperatures for the second half of the
week. Highs mainly in the upper 90s.

JM

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 549 AM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

CIGS and patchy fog may bring occasional MVFR conditions to a few
terminals this morning, mainly KCXO and KUTS. Conditions improve
after sunrise with VFR conditions dominating the rest of the TAF
period. Light passing showers will be possible during the daytime
hours, though rain chances and coverage are greatest west of I-45,
remaining distant from most TAF sites.

03

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1211 AM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

Typical summer weather pattern continues across the Upper TX coast
with light to occasionally moderate south to southeast winds and low
seas (up to 3 ft offshore). A daily risk of isolated to scattered
showers with a few embedded storms is expected each day. The best
chances for precipitation will be early next week as a disturbance
moves through the north-central/northwestern Gulf, moving along the
Upper TX coast Monday and Tuesday.

JM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  87  73  92  72 /  40  10  10   0
Houston (IAH)  92  75  94  75 /  30  10  20  10
Galveston (GLS)  89  81  90  81 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...03
MARINE...JM