872
FXUS64 KHGX 100526
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1226 AM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

- Increased risk of fires starting today and Saturday with low
  humidities in place.

- Small Craft Advisories are in effect for the coastal waters
  through this morning with elevated winds/seas anticipated. Water
  levels will run above normal levels.

- No rain in the forecast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

Mid/upper ridge stretching from Mexico northward through Texas will
hold tight for the next week - so mentionable rain chances won`t be
found in the forecast unfortunately. The good news: a dry airmass
and mostly clear skies will lead to some pleasant evenings,
overnight, and morning temps the next couple days. The not so good
news: these low RH`s will allow for some fast fire starts if
initiated.

Once southeast winds resume in the low levels Saturday night, we`ll
see a slow upward tick in dewpoints and overnight lows heading into
next week. With plenty of sun and subsidence aloft, daytime readings
will continue to run above normal. 47

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

VFR for the next 30+ hours.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

Similar to last night, look for a fairly quick increase in
ENE wind speeds that`ll fill in across the coastal waters in the
next couple hours. Have advisories and/or caution flags up into the
9a-noon timeframe, then winds/seas should begin trending back down.

Water levels/tides will be running above normal levels due to the
moon phase and easterly fetch. They should be peaking in the 3.5-
4.0ft MLLW range around the evening high tide cycles thru the
weekend at Gulf facing locations. Since high tide has passed already
tonight, we`ll be canceling the current Coastal Flood Advisory
early. Given that winds/seas should be subsiding, suspect that
going forward we might just see less of a beach versus a more of
the traditional and more impactful coastal flood threat, but will
let the day crew make a decision whether a Coastal Flood Advisory
of a Beach Hazards Statement would be a better fit in terms of
messaging.

A light onshore flow should resume Saturday night and continue into
next week. Looking like favorable marine wx conditions. 47

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

Daytime minimum RH`s should be around 25% inland and 30-40$ coast
today. Winds will below Red Flag Warning Criteria. That said, fuels
remain dry and conditions are favorable for fire starts should
initiation occur. The Texas A&M Forest Service Fire Danger index is
in the high-extreme territory for most of the area today. RH`s
should be just a touch higher on Saturday, but still relatively low
all things considered. Please exercise caution when working with
open flames/equipment that can cause sparks, especially in dry
spots. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  90  60  91  60 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  90  63  89  65 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  86  72  85  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 9 AM CDT this morning
     for GMZ330.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for GMZ335.

     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ350-
     355-370-375.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...47
AVIATION...Self
MARINE...47