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FXHW60 PHFO 061432 CCA
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
432 AM HST Sat Dec 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Bands of low level clouds with embedded showers will focus mainly
along windward and mauka areas as moderate trades hold into
Monday. Winds will become light and veer southerly Tuesday as a
front approaches the state from the northwest. The front is
expected to move over the state during the second half of next
bringing a wetter period.


&&

.DISCUSSION...

Latest surface analysis shows a trough of low pressure roughly 250
miles west of Kauai early this morning where some isolated
thunderstorms are being triggered just outside of the coastal
waters. This trough is expected to weaken and lift north today,
keeping the threat of thunderstorms west of the coastal waters.
Overnight rainfall totals on Kauai range from 0.06 to 2.0 inches
for the wetter regions of Kauai. Expect showers to trend down
during the day as a drier airmass with limited upstream clouds and
showers moves through. Moderate trades will ease slightly tonight
as an upper level trough moves overhead. This slight instability
overnight could help provide isolated moderate to locally heavy
rainfall but should be brief and mainly focused along windward and
mauka areas. The exception could be the Kona slopes of the Big
Island as seabreezes strengthen this afternoon into the early
evening hours.

The upper level trough will continue to dig southeast of the
state through Sunday and eventually form a closed low east of the
state Monday. This pattern should place the state in an area of
subsidence as low to mid level ridging builds in from the west,
creating a highly stable, moderate trade wind pattern. Some bands
of low level clouds and showers trapped within the trade wind
flow, enhanced by the upper low, will mainly focus along windward
and mauka areas.

Extended guidance continues to show a cold front approaching the
state from the northwest Tuesday allowing winds to become light
to gentle and veer southeast. Details on the timing and exact
impacts as the front moves through the state are still unknown.
The EC model brings the front in Wednesday night with more modest
impacts than the GFS which brings the front in around Thursday
morning with stronger frontal lift and upper level dynamics
resulting in a wetter pattern. Thus will continue to monitor and
update the forecast with the latest details.


&&

.AVIATION...

Moderate to locally breezy east-southeasterly winds will
gradually weaken today as the surface high to the far northeast
weakens and drifts further eastward. A slightly drier airmass has
filtered in limiting shower activity over windward and mountain
areas. Expect mainly VFR conditions through today. Brief MVFR
conditions are possible with passing showers.

No AIRMETs are currently in effect or expected.



&&

.MARINE...
A surface trough west of Kauai will continue to weaken and
drift slowly westward away from the islands through Sunday.
A surface high pressure ridge will remain north of the Hawaii
region, winds flowing around this ridge will produce moderate to
locally strong easterly trade winds today, then wind speeds will
slowly decrease from Sunday onward. Lighter southeast to south
winds are forecast from Tuesday to Wednesday as another cold front
moves into the region from the northwest. A consensus of weather
model guidance suggests this cold front may move into the western
Hawaiian islands from late Wednesday into Thursday.

A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) remains in effect for the typically
windier waters around the islands in Maui and Hawaii Counties.
Trade winds will drop below SCA thresholds by tonight.

The current medium period north-northwest (340-350 degree) swell
continues to slowly decline this morning. Buoy observations from
National Data Buoy Center stations 51001 and 51101 just northwest
of Kauai show a gradual downward trend. The latest swell model
guidance confirms this downward trend as the current north-northwest
swell energy will gradually fade into Monday, bringing surf back
down to below average levels for this time of year. The next two
long to medium period overlapping northwest (310-320 degree) swell
pulses will arrive on Monday and Tuesday, boosting surf along
north and west facing shores possibly reaching marginal advisory
levels by Wednesday.

Choppy east shore surf will remain small and decline this weekend
as trades ease. Expect minimal background energy for south facing
shores through the next few days, other than a slight bump this
weekend.

Peak monthly tides combined with water levels that are running
higher than predicted will likely lead to minor flooding along
the shoreline and in low-lying coastal areas. Coastal flooding is
possible around the early morning peak tide through Sunday.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

The inversion slopes from around 7kft at Lihue to 11kft at Hilo
early this morning. A slightly drier airmass has filtered in but
moderate trades are unlikely to reach the critical fire threshold
today and will ease slightly tonight. Light southeast winds are
expected Tuesday preceding a wetter weather pattern middle to
second half of next week.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Maalaea Bay-
Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big
Island Southeast Waters.


&&

$$


DISCUSSION...Almanza
AVIATION...Almanza
MARINE...Bohlin
FIRE WEATHER...Almanza