Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Honolulu, HI
Issued by NWS Honolulu, HI
958 FXHW60 PHFO 201308 AFDHFO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 308 AM HST Wed Aug 20 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Moderate to locally breezy trade winds will continue through the rest of this week as high pressure builds over the region. A subtle increase in windward and mauka showers is possible today, but in general, expect mostly dry and stable conditions into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Latest radar and satellite imagery this morning shows some scattered light showers along with some low levels clouds coming in with the trades. Also there is some upper level clouds streaming up from the south . Moderate to locally breezy trades expected today, with some higher gusts possible. A subtle plume of moisture should move across the chain today bringing a slight increase in windward and mauka clouds and showers. Ridging should remain in place for the next several days, which will continue the breezy trades through the end of the week. An overall dry trend will continue through the rest of the week with the typical summertime trade wind weather and dry stable conditions. With the dry and breezy conditions throughout the rest of this week and into the weekend, we could see elevated fire weather concerns, especially across leeward areas. Next week, a plume of moisture embedded within the trades could move into the islands by Monday or Tuesday, increasing windward and mauka clouds and showers once again. && .AVIATION... Moderate to locally breezy trades will persist through the forecast period. Low cigs and SHRA are possible over windward and mauka areas. MVFR conds possible in SHRA, otherwise VFR prevails. No AIRMETs are in effect at this time. && .MARINE... A high pressure ridge north of the state will keep fresh to locally strong trade winds throughout the forecast period. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) remains in effect for the windier waters and channels around Maui County and the Big Island through through at least Thursday. A series of small, medium period south (170-190 degree) swells are expected throughout the week with surf around the summer average expected through around Saturday. Surf heights should decrease Sunday into early next week as these swells fade. Choppy conditions will continue for east-facing shores through the forecast period due to the persistent fresh trades. Surf along north facing shores will remain nearly flat through the forecast period. Peak high tides associated with the lunar cycle will lead to minor coastal flooding along shorelines and low lying coastal areas during the next few afternoons. A Coastal Flood Statement is in effect for minor coastal flooding this week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Moderate to locally breezy trade winds are expected as high pressure builds over the state. Inversion heights look to be in the 5,500 to 6,500 foot range today. Despite lowest RH values dipping as low as the mid 40s during the afternoon hours each day, wind speeds look to be a limiting factor, so not expecting any fire weather headlines today. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Thursday for Maalaea Bay- Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters. && $$ DISCUSSION...Walsh AVIATION...Walsh MARINE...Bohlin FIRE WEATHER...Walsh