341
FXHW60 PHFO 060154
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
354 PM HST Tue May 5 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
A land and sea breeze pattern will persist through Wednesday,
leading to interior clouds and showers in the afternoon and
evening and partial clearing at night. Trade winds will gradually
return Thursday and Friday, and while rainfall will become
focused over windward areas, a few afternoon showers will develop
over leeward slopes. A slight increase in showers is possible for
the weekend, followed by a stronger trade winds and more stable
conditions early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Light winds and a somewhat stable land and sea breeze pattern is
in place over the state. A broad low pressure passing far north
of the islands has split the subtropical ridge and induced a weak
surface trough north of Oahu. The resulting weak southeast to
south winds over the region were easily overpowered by sea breezes
today, leading to interior clouds and mainly isolated showers
this afternoon. The exception was windward Oahu, where a fairly
narrow band of showers that developed along the Koolau early this
morning has helped to fuel scattered showers throughout the day.
In spite of stable conditions and solid inversions between 6,000
to 7,000 feet on the afternoon soundings, a few of these showers
have become briefly heavy. Away from windward Oahu, the main
impact has been increased humidity as dew points climbed to around
70 degrees.

The humid land and sea breeze pattern will continue through
Wednesday, with an uptick in shower activity expected along the
surface trough as it meanders around the central portion of the
island chain. As a result, expect decreased clouds and showers
over most areas overnight and another round of afternoon clouds
and isolated showers Wednesday afternoon. The weak lingering
trough near Oahu and Molokai will lead to higher shower chances
on these islands, where an isolated shower could occur through
the night.

Kilauea eruption episode 46 started this morning and peaked
midday. An Ashfall Advisory is in effect through the evening to
highlight the possibility of tephra, ash, and Peles hair falling
near the volcano. Due to relatively light winds veering with
height, material from the eruption has been confined mainly just
north and northeast of Kilauea.

Light to moderate trade winds will slowly rebuild Thursday and
Friday as the subtropical ridge redevelops north of the state.
Showers will become focused over windward slopes, though afternoon
sea breezes will produce afternoon clouds and a few showers across
sheltered leeward terrain. Dew points will drop back into the mid
60s and provide relief from the humidity.

An upper level trough passing overhead could generate an increase
in showers during the weekend, but confidence remains rather low.
Expect stronger trade winds and increased stability early next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...
A light background wind pattern has allowed land and sea breezes
to take place across most sites, and has also allowed clouds and
showers to form over most island interiors. Some lingering showers
embedded within the flow have also primarily impacted windward
areas of Oahu and Maui. MVFR conditions are expected within
showers, while VFR prevails elsewhere. Expect conditions to clear
up overnight for island interiors, while windward areas over Oahu
and Maui may still see lingering showers. Light winds are
expected again tomorrow, along with afternoon clouds and showers
over island interiors.

AIRMET Sierra is in effect for mountain obscurations for north
through east sections of Oahu and Maui. No other AIRMET`s are in
effect.

&&

.MARINE...
A trough over the far northwest offshore waters will slowly track
south through the islands, reaching the central waters Wednesday.
This, combined with a larger synoptic scale low pressure system
far to the north will lead to light and variable winds, with sea
and land breezes present near the immediate coasts. A new high
building northwest of the state will bring a return of light to
moderate trades Thursday and Friday, with the trades strengthening
to moderate and fresh levels over the weekend. Winds and seas are
expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory thresholds through
at least Friday.

A moderate medium-period northwest swell will gradually fade over
the next couple of days. A new long period swell originating from
a gale force low south of Kamchatka will build Wednesday night
and give another boost to north and west shore surf Thursday and
Friday. Surf will gradually decline over the weekend into early
next week.

A series of overlapping south swells will keep intermittent small
surf rolling into south facing shores during the next week. A
small, long-period swell arriving Wednesday from a storm-force low
that tracked southeast of New Zealand last week will likely
provide a small bump in south shore surf through the end of the
week.

Surf along east facing shores will remain below normal during the
next 7 days due to the lack of strong trades over and upstream of
the islands.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Ashfall Advisory until 8 PM HST this evening for Big Island
Southeast-Big Island East.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wroe
AVIATION...DT
MARINE...Quesada