674
FXHW60 PHFO 181914
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
914 AM HST Tue Aug 18 2026

.SYNOPSIS...

A more seasonal trade wind pattern has returned to the state with
the exit of Hurricane Lala. Expect typical trade wind showers
focused along windward and mauka areas through tonight. Trade
winds weaken Wednesday into the latter half of the week as a
trough passes northeast of the islands. The trough also brings an
increase in moisture that will produce an uptick in shower
activity through Friday. This weekend, trade winds restrengthen.


&&

.SHORT TERM UPDATE...
No changes to the forecast this morning. Trade winds will continue
today, weakening for Thursday and Friday. Chances for leeward
showers increase during that time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 345 AM HST Tue Aug 18 2026

Radar and satellite show isolated showers over the waters upstream
of the islands which could produce some light to moderate
precipitation for windward and mauka areas this morning. A more
seasonal trade wind pattern is expected through tonight, but the
trades weaken for Wednesday through the latter half of the week
as a trough passes northeast of the islands. The trough brings an
increase in moisture that will produce an uptick in shower
activity through Friday. With the lighter trades, precipitation
chances could spread over leeward areas with the possible
development of a sea/land breeze pattern. By this weekend, trades
are expected to return, but their strength and direction are more
uncertain. These factors will depend on the strength of the
subtropical ridge and the evolution of a tropical disturbance in
the East Pacific expected to track near the islands by early next
week. Most guidance keeps this feature south of the state at this
time.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 345 AM HST Tue Aug 18 2026

Moderate trades through the forecast period. Low cigs and SHRA
along windward and mauka locations. MVFR conds possible in SHRA
otherwise VFR prevails.

AIRMET Sierra is in effect for mtn obsc along windward portions
of all islands. Conds should improve in the mid morning hours.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 345 AM HST Tue Aug 18 2026
High pressure far northeast of the waters will remain nearly
stationary and slowly weaken through Thursday. Wind speeds have
eased slightly overnight as the Small Craft Advisory has been
cancelled. Trade winds will continue to weaken further to become
light and variable for most waters giving way for localized land
and sea breezes. By Friday, the high will drift southeast as
moderate to locally fresh trade winds will likely build back in.

Surf along south facing shores will slowly decline through
midweek as offshore buoys south of the islands continue to decline.
Another long period south swell generated from gales just south
and east of New Zealand will begin arriving late this week. Surf
along east facing shores will continue to fade as trades decrease
today. North facing shores will remain tiny throughout the week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 345 AM HST Tue Aug 18 2026

Moderate relatively moist trade winds will prevail through tonight.
Winds will weaken Wednesday through Friday with increasing
humidity. Trade winds increase over the weekend with possibly some
slight drying. The inversion will be around 6000 to 7000 ft
today.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CO
DISCUSSION...Quesada
AVIATION...Almanza
MARINE...Vaughan