Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Honolulu, HI
Issued by NWS Honolulu, HI
214 FXHW60 PHFO 141311 AFDHFO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 311 AM HST Wed May 14 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Breezy trades will continue to produce showers across windward and mauka areas through the week. A developing low aloft could increase showers this weekend into next week. && .DISCUSSION... Satellite and radar imagery shows scattered clouds and showers embedded within the trade winds, favoring primarily windward and mauka areas. Little change is expected over the next few days. The Northeast Pacific High is expected to weaken and be pushed southward by a series of lows near the Aleutians. This will result in continued breezy trades across the islands through at least Thursday afternoon. Showers embedded within the trades will favor windward and mauka locations, especially during the overnight and early morning hours each day. Some isolated spillover to leeward areas is expected. Thursday evening through the weekend the subtropical jet thats south of the islands will weaken and move to the east. A new upper level low develops just southwest of the island chain. This low is expected to move over the islands this weekend and both linger and weaken overhead. It is possible that shower activity could increase, including across some leeward areas as well. Early next week, the aforementioned low aloft is forecast to weaken as ridging builds back into the region. This could bring some unsettled weather embedded within the general trade wind regime. && .AVIATION... Moderate to breezy trade winds will continue with periods of showers in the forecast favoring windward and mountain areas in the overnight to early morning hours. Satellite and radar imagery show a band of clouds and showers riding into the islands on the trade winds will an increase in morning shower activity along with brief MVFR conditions mainly affecting windward airfields. AIRMET Sierra is in effect for mtn obsc for N thru E sections of the islands of Oahu through the Big Island. AIRMET Tango is in effect for mod turb blw 070 S thru W of island terrain. && .MARINE... A strong high will remain far northeast of the state through the week and continue to bring fresh to locally strong trade winds to all local waters. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) for the windier waters around Maui County and the Big Island has been extended through Thursday. Winds may ease slightly and veer toward the east- southeast over the weekend due to a weak front far northwest of the state. The current moderate period south-southwest swell will slowly decline through today as mainly background energy is expected along south facing shores through Thursday. A tiny long-period south- southwest is possible this weekend, but otherwise mainly background energy is expected into the middle of next week. Surf along east-facing shores will be rough and choppy the next several days due to the fresh to locally strong trades. Surf along north facing shores will remain small with some background northwest energy moving through throughout the week and into the weekend. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Thursday for Maalaea Bay- Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters. && $$ DISCUSSION...Walsh AVIATION...Bohlin MARINE...Shigesato