983
FXHW60 PHFO 111328
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
328 AM HST Fri Sep 11 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
A drier and less humid trade wind flow will continue to fill in
over the state today. Shower activity will be focused across
windward areas and will become less frequent, though leeward Big
Island may still experience scattered briefly heavy showers in
the afternoon. A tropical disturbance moving within the trade
winds may bring increased humidity and showers again late Tuesday
or Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A drier air mass is slowly developing over the state on moderate
trade winds. The bulk of a diffuse band of moisture has moved west
of the islands, but some moisture remains hung up on Big Island
and Kauai. Overnight, generally less than a quarter of an inch of
rainfall has been measured on windward areas of these islands,
and showers remained rather active over the South Kona District
of the Big Island. Little rainfall occurred on windward Oahu and
Maui County overnight, and dry leeward areas of these islands have
been dry.

Expect a drier and less humid day over most of the island chain
today. Moderate trade winds will push the bulk of the deeper
moisture west of the islands, allowing leeward dew points to fall
into the mid 60s and bringing relief from high humidity of the
past several days. Typical light to moderate scattered showers
are expected over windward areas, but rainfall accumulation will
be low. Spotty afternoon showers, some briefly heavy cannot be
ruled out on leeward Big Island and to a lesser degree on leeward
Kauai.

Moderate trade winds will bring rather typical trade wind weather
this weekend through early next week. A weak upper-level trough
will linger over the area, keeping modest instability and a weak
inversion over the state. As a result, there will be a chance of a
few heavy showers over the Kona slopes of Big Island each
afternoon and evening.

A tropical disturbance moving within the trade winds may bring
increased humidity and showers again late Tuesday or Wednesday.
Differences in timing and placement of this moisture persist
between the GFS and ECMWF, which is keeping the details elusive at
this point. This moisture could persist through Thursday of next
week. Beyond that, there is significant uncertainty regarding the
future location and timing of east Pacific Tropical Storm Norbert,
which may be near the islands late in the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
The trade winds be moderate to breezy this morning, with a few
showers lingering around the Big Island. Heavier precipitation can
be found offshore, moving westward. Satellite imagery remains a
bit messy, with a mix of low, mid, and high level clouds. TAF
sites depict this as well, with cigs varying from 2500ft to 6000ft
in addition to high clouds and some sites being VFR. Current
thinking is that the current clouds will linger through the early
morning and improve later in the day. The windward sides of
islands may struggle a bit with cloud clearing, as showers remain
in the forecast.

AIRMET Sierra remains for the Big Island, Maui, Oahu and Kauai
through the morning. Isolated showers remain in the forecast,
with the windward sides of these island potentially seeing
additional showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Moderate to locally fresh trade winds expected for next few days
as a weak N-S oriented trough has moved west of Kauai. A couple of
troughs far northeast and southeast will keep a weak pressure
gradient across the state through the weekend. The trough from the
southeast will near the state Saturday allowing winds to shift
out of the northeast through early next week.

A moderate mid-period south swell will continue to steadily
decline over the next few days with below average surf expected by
the weekend. Background southerly swells will keep surf from
going flat over the weekend into early next week. A gale low just
east Australia will shift east of New Zealand over the next
couple of days in a more favorable position for more consistent
south swells for Hawaii late next week. Forerunners from the
captured fetch from this system could start trickling in by mid
week and gradually build through the rest of the week into next
weekend, generating above average surf.

On east facing shores expect seasonal average surf that was caused
by former tropical cyclones to gradually fade to below average by
Saturday and hold into early next week as trades locally and
upstream remain disrupted.

Tiny surf along north facing shores as the swell from Lowell
continues to decline.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Fire weather risk will remain low the next several days due light
to moderate winds and the effects of recent rainfall, even as
afternoon relative humidity falls below 50 percent over many
leeward areas. Inversion heights are expected to remain elevated
or weak through Monday.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wroe
AVIATION...Rogacheski
MARINE...Walsh
FIRE WEATHER...Wroe