594
FXHW60 PHFO 031951
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
951 AM HST Thu Apr 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front currently moving into Kauai and Niihau this morning
will stall out and weaken near the Kauai Channel today into Friday.
Expect wet weather across Kauai County during this time, with some
enhanced showers moving into Oahu as well. Trade winds will begin
to build back into the islands by Friday, strengthening into the
moderate to breezy range from Saturday onward, with periods of
enhanced showers lasting through much of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
No changes to the forecast this morning. Satellite and radar imagery
show a rapidly weakening cold frontal cloud band moving into Kauai
and Niihau this morning, with scattered showers moving in from the
northwest. This boundary will produce periods of wet weather across
Kauai County and Oahu for the next couple of days. Light southerly
winds east of the front may produce brief periods of showers for the
other islands today, though most of the state will continue to see
light winds with afternoon sea breezes and inland clouds.

The latest short range model solutions continue to show the forward
motion on the front stalling out as it moves into the Kauai Channel
by tonight. Most islands will continue to see light land and sea
breeze weather conditions in place through today. Northeasterly
trade winds will quickly build in behind the front over Kauai later
today, enhancing showers over north and east slopes of the Garden
Isle. Trade winds will then spread eastward across the rest of the
state on Friday as the frontal band dissipates. The remnants of the
front will be pushed westward back over Kauai County late Friday into
the weekend, continuing the wet weather there. More typical trade
wind weather remains in the forecast for the rest of the state through
the weekend. Vog will continue to linger over most islands through
much of Friday until the easterly trade winds begin to push the Vog
cloud in a more westward direction away from the islands by Friday
night.

High confidence exists in the forecast for next week, with global
models showing an extended period of easterly trade winds, with
periods of enhanced showers through much of next week. As is typical
with trade wind showers, the greatest shower chances and coverage
will occur over windward and mountain slopes during the typical
overnight to early morning hours.

&&

.AVIATION...A weakening front near Kauai will continue to move
east and keep winds light and variable over the state today.
Enhanced clouds and showers over the western end of the state is
expected today as moisture streams in from the south ahead of the
front. Periods of MVFR are likely within the heavier showers,
mostly for the western end of the state. The eastern half of the
state will see moderate to locally breezy southeasterly winds
continue, with localized sea breezes in sheltered areas.
Conditions should remain mostly VFR. Winds should then transition
tonight into tomorrow to a more typical northeasterly direction as
the front dissipates.

AIRMET Sierra is in effect for mtn obsc for all of Kauai. This
could continue and could expand to Oahu through much of the day
as clouds and showers linger.

All areas will continue to see some Vog due to the ongoing eruption
of Kilauea. However, Vog is not expected to impact visibilities
enough to warrant a mention in any TAF.

&&

.MARINE...
A slow moving and weakening cold front will push through Kauai
today before stalling and dissipating over the Kauai channel
tonight or Friday. Light to moderate southerly winds will hold
ahead of the front with moderate northerly winds filling in behind
the front. Moderate to locally strong trade winds will reestablish
themselves Friday into Saturday and persist into the coming week.
Small Craft Advisory conditions may return first for the western
half of the state as early as Friday around Kauai then for the
rest of the state over the weekend as strong trades winds return
and seas build to 10 feet or greater due to moderate and a large
north swells.

Surf along north and west facing shores will start out small then
gradually build later today into Friday as a small to moderate
medium period north northwest swell (330-340) fills in. The swell
will continue to build Friday generating surf near to just below
advisory level along north and west facing shores. A large to
extra large, long period swell (350-360) will quickly build in
Saturday that will likely produce warning level surf along north
facing shores with advisory level surf across west and east facing
shores through the weekend. This swell, aside from being
hazardous to small craft, could generate harbor surges along north
facing bays and inlets.

Surf along south facing shores will remain tiny into the weekend
with mainly background energy dominating. A small, long period
south swell may fill in later over the weekend into early next
week and provide a small boost to surf along south facing shores.

Surf along east facing shores will remain small through today,
but will gradually build Friday over the weekend with the return
of trade wind flow over and upstream of the state and from the
larger northerly swells wrapping into exposed areas.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TS
AVIATION...Tsamous
MARINE...Bedal