384
FXHW60 PHFO 070127
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
327 PM HST Fri Jun 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Trade winds will ease over the weekend as the high pressure
system to the northeast weakens. With a weak upper low passing
just north of the state, instability should contribute to the
development of windward showers overnight and a few leeward and
interior sea breeze showers in the afternoons, as well. More
stable conditions with drier trends will return next week as high
pressure builds in over the region and trade winds will strengthen
to become moderate to locally breezy by midweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
This afternoon`s radar and satellite imagery show a few clouds
and showers moving into windward and mauka areas on the moderate
trades, and building over leeward and interior areas, thanks
mostly to sea breeze activity. This hybrid trade wind/sea breeze
pattern will persist through the weekend as an Aleutian low
pressure system weakens the high to the far northeast of the
state, and hence, keeps the trade wind speeds on the lighter side
locally. Aloft, a weak upper level low can be seen passing just
north of the state on water vapor imagery this afternoon. General
upper level troughing will remain in the vicinity through the
weekend, supporting brief windward and sea breeze shower
development as batches of moisture pass through.

Heading into next week, we`ll transition to a more stable,
slightly drier trade wind pattern as ridging builds in aloft and
drier air filters in at the lower levels. High pressure will
gradually build at the surface and become more established
northeast of the state through the week, gradually strengthening
the trade wind speeds to locally breezy levels by mid to late
week. Brief showers will favor windward and mauka areas,
especially during the overnight and early morning periods, and sea
breeze induced leeward and interior showers will become less
common as the week progresses due to the strengthening trades.

&&

.AVIATION...
High pressure to the northeast of the area will keep moderate
trade winds in place through the weekend. Trade winds could weaken
slightly over the weekend which could give way to localized land
and sea breezes. A pocket of dry air moving through the region
this afternoon and tonight should limit shower activity and keep
them isolated over windward and mountain areas through the
forecast period. Overall VFR conditions will prevail.

No AIRMETs are in effect and none are expected over the next 24
hours.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure to the far northeast will slowly weaken, maintaining
gentle to locally fresh trade winds through the weekend. By early
next week, high pressure looks to rebuild north of the islands as
a surface trough develops west of the waters, potentially veering
trade winds to the east to east southeast by the middle of next
week.

Surf along south facing shores have begun to build slowly today as
long period energy from the south-southwest trickles in this
afternoon. Due to the observations in Samoa from the same swell
outperforming the model guidance, surf heights are expected to
peak through the day on Saturday at High Surf Advisory levels and
hold through the day Sunday before declining into early next week.
A High Surf Advisory has been issued for all south facing shores
starting Saturday morning through 6 AM HST Sunday.

East shore surf will remain moderate as the northeast swell
slowly declines through the weekend. Surf along north facing
shores will remain tiny to small through the forecast period,
except for select areas that may be exposed to the northeast
swell tonight into Saturday.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Surf Advisory from 6 AM Saturday to 6 AM HST Sunday for
Niihau-Kauai Leeward-Waianae Coast-Kahoolawe-Maui Leeward West-
Kona-Kauai South-East Honolulu-Honolulu Metro-Ewa Plain-Molokai
Leeward South-Lanai Leeward-Lanai South-Maui Central Valley
South-South Maui/Upcountry-South Haleakala-Big Island South-Big
Island Southeast.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Farris
AVIATION...Tsamous
MARINE...Shigesato